Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

German wages have not increased very rapidly in the last decade despite strong employment growth and a 5 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate. Our analysis shows that a large part of the decline in unemployment was structural. Micro-founded Phillips curves fit the German data rather well and suggest that relatively low wage growth can be largely attributed to low inflation expectations and low productivity growth. There is no evidence – from either aggregate or micro-level administrative data – that large immigration flows since 2012 have had dampening effects on aggregate wage growth, as complementarity effects offset composition and competition effects.

Labor --- Emigration and Immigration --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General --- International Migration --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Labour --- income economics --- Migration, immigration & emigration --- Wages --- Migration --- Labor markets --- Unemployment --- Unemployment rate --- Population and demographics --- Emigration and immigration --- Labor market --- Germany

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.

Demography --- Demography. --- Economic history. --- Population. --- Europe, Central --- Europe, Eastern --- Central Europe. --- Eastern Europe. --- Economic conditions. --- Human population --- Human populations --- Population growth --- Populations, Human --- Economics --- Human ecology --- Sociology --- Malthusianism --- History, Economic --- Historical demography --- Social sciences --- Population --- Vital statistics --- East Europe --- Eastern Europe --- Central Europe --- Aging --- Capacity --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Cost --- Demographic Economics: General --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Health economics --- Health --- Health: General --- Income economics --- Industrial productivity --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Labor force --- Labor market --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Population & demography --- Population aging --- Population and demographics --- Production and Operations Management --- Production --- Total factor productivity --- Turkey

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Assessing when credit is excessive is important to understand macro-financial vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy. The Basel Credit Gap (BCG) – the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend estimated with a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter—is the indicator preferred by the Basel Committee because of its good performance as an early warning of banking crises. However, for a number of European countries this indicator implausibly suggests that credit should go back to its level at the peak of the boom after the credit cycle turns, resulting in large negative gaps that might delay the activation of macroprudential policies. We explore two different approaches—a multivariate filter based on economic theory and a fundamentals-based panel regression. Each approach has pros and cons, but they both provide a useful complement to the BCG in assessing macro-financial vulnerabilities in Europe.

Spain --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Credit gaps --- Real interest rates --- Credit cycles --- Credit booms --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Money --- Financial services --- Business cycles --- Interest rates