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In assessing new technologies, policy-makers should allow time between the adoption of the technologies and the realization of productivity gains attributable to them. Productivity growth was much lower than might be expected during the green revolution in the Indian Punjab but improved as learning processes took effect and resource management and the use of inputs became more efficient. Murgai provides district-level estimates of the contribution of technical change to agricultural output growth in the Indian Punjab from 1960 to 1993. Contrary to widespread belief, productivity growth in the Punjab was surprisingly low during the green revolution (in the mid-1960s), when modern hybrid seed varieties were being adopted. It improved later, after adoption of the new varieties was essentially complete. Murgai proposes three reasons for this pattern: The standard measure of total factor productivity overstates the contribution of capital to output growth at the expense of the productivity residual. High-yielding varieties introduced in the 1960s helped spur output growth by making crops responsive to water and fertilizer, which not only allowed but indeed encouraged far greater use of capital inputs. This increase in the elasticity of the output response to capital inputs is incorporated into the index of factor accumulation and therefore excluded from the measure of total factor productivity growth. As a result, the contribution of technical change to growth in Punjab's agriculture during the green revolution is probably underestimated; The overstatement of the capital contribution during the green revolution is exacerbated by indivisibilities in capital inputs; Productivity growth did not come from the adoption of modern varieties alone. Improved resource management and public investment in infrastructure also helped improve productivity. This paper - a product of Rural Development, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the determinants and impact of technology adoption and productivity growth in agriculture. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Productivity and Sustainability of Irrigated Systems in South Asia (RPO 680-34). The author may be contacted at rmurgai@worldbank.org.

Agricultural Production --- Agricultural Research --- Agriculture --- Cotton --- Crop --- Cropping --- Cropping Systems --- Crops --- Crops and Crop Management Systems --- Development Research --- Drought Management --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Farmers --- Green Revolution --- Hybrid Seed --- Infrastructure --- Investment --- Irrigation and Drainage --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Maize --- Markets --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Rice --- Seed Varieties --- Social Protections and Labor --- Technology --- Technology Adoption --- Water Resources --- Wheat

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This paper provides an overview of poverty and well-being trends in India since the mid-1990s. Poverty reduction since 2005 has been much faster than the earlier decade, as a result of broad-based growth across most geographic areas. Underlying this is a pattern of high mobility in economic status that has led to an emerging middle class. Still, a vast (and rising) share of the population faces significant risk of slipping back into poverty. India's poor are increasingly concentrated in low-income states with historically lower rates of economic progress. Even as India has reduced poverty faster than the developing world as a whole, the degree of poverty reduction associated with growth has been substantially lower than in some of its middle-income peers. India faces important challenges in nonmonetary dimensions of welfare as well. Despite success on important fronts, such as infant and child mortality and secondary education, progress has been slow in others, such as sanitation and nutrition, and lags behind some other countries that are at a similar stage of development.

Growth --- Inequality --- Poverty --- Shared Prosperity

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Zonder onderwerpscode: wereldeconomie, ontwikkelingsproblematiek

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The recent decline in India's rural female labor force participation is generally attributed to higher rural incomes in a patriarchal society. Together with the growing share of the urban population, where female participation rates are lower, this alleged income effect does not bode well for the empowerment of women as India develops. This paper argues that a traditional supply-side interpretation is insufficient to account for the decline in female participation rates, and the transformation of the demand for labor at local levels needs to be taken into account as well. A salient trait of this period is the collapse in the number of farming jobs without a parallel emergence of other employment opportunities considered suitable for women. The paper develops a novel approach to capture the structure of employment at the village or town level, and allow for differences along six ranks in the rural-urban gradation. It also considers the possible misclassification of urban areas as rural, as a result of household surveys lagging behind India's rapid urbanization process. The results show that the place of residence along the rural-urban gradation loses relevance as an explanation of female labor force participation once local job opportunities are taken into account. Robustness checks confirm that the main findings hold even when taking into account the possibility of spurious correlation and endogeneity. They also hold under alternative definitions of labor force participation and when sub-samples of women are considered. Simulations suggest that for India to reverse the decline in female labor force participation rates it needs to boost job creation.

Communities & Human Settlements --- Education --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Social Protections and Labor

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"Minimum wages are generally thought to be unenforceable in developing rural economies. But there is one solution - a workfare scheme in which the government acts as the employer of last resort. Is this a cost-effective policy against poverty? Using a microeconometric model of the casual labor market in rural India, the authors find that a guaranteed wage rate sufficient for a typical poor family to reach the poverty line would bring the annual poverty rate down from 34 percent to 25 percent at a fiscal cost representing 3-4 percent of GDP when run for the whole year. Confining the scheme to the lean season (three months) would bring the annual poverty rate down to 31 percent at a cost of 1.3 percent of GDP. While the gains from a guaranteed wage rate would be better targeted than a uniform (untargeted) cash transfer, the extra costs of the wage policy imply that it would have less impact on poverty. "--World Bank web site.

Casual labor --- Minimum wage --- Poverty --- Transfer payments