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Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden form a tightly integrated region which has strong ties with the euro area as well as some exposure to Russia. Using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we examine spillovers the region could face, focusing on possible scenarios from the rest of the euro area and Russia, and the fall in global oil prices. We show that the spillovers from these scenarios differ in magnitude and impact, regardless of the high degree of integration among the four Nordic economies. These differences are driven by the fact that Denmark and Finland have no independent monetary policy, and Denmark and Norway are net energy exporters while Finland and Sweden are energy importers. We infer lessons for policy from the outcomes.

Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- General Aggregative Models: Keynes --- Keynesian --- Post-Keynesian --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Energy industries & utilities --- Energy prices --- Consumption --- Oil prices --- Sovereign wealth funds --- Real exchange rates --- Energy pricing --- Expenditure --- National accounts --- Asset and liability management --- Economics --- Expenditures, Public --- Finland

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Germany and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia (the CE4) have been in a process of deepening economic integration which has lead to the development of a dynamic supply chain within Europe—the Germany-Central European Supply Chain (GCESC). Model-based simulations suggest two key policy implications: First, as a reflection of strengthening trade linkages, German fiscal spillovers to the CE4 and more broadly to the rest of the euro area, have increased over time, but are still relatively small. This is explained by the supply chain nature of trade integration: final demand in Germany is not necessarily the main determinant of CE4 exports to Germany. Second, increased trade openness in both Germany and the CE4 implies a greater exposure of the GCESC to global shocks. However, owing to its strong fundamentals—including sound balance sheets and its safe haven status— Germany plays the role of a regional anchor of stability by better absorbing shocks from other trading partners instead of amplifying their transmission across the GCESC.

European Union countries --- Economic integration --- Accounting --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Fiscal Policy --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- International Business Cycles --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Externalities --- Trade: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Financial statements --- Spillovers --- Fiscal stimulus --- Exports --- Public debt --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Fiscal policy --- International trade --- Finance, Public --- International finance --- Debts, Public --- Germany

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This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

Chemical & Materials Engineering --- Engineering & Applied Sciences --- Chemical Engineering --- Petroleum products. --- Economic geography. --- Geography, Economic --- World economics --- Mazut --- Geography --- Commercial geography --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Refining --- Petroleum products --- Energy consumption --- Prices&delete& --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Consumption of energy --- Energy efficiency --- Fuel consumption --- Fuel efficiency --- Power resources --- Energy conservation --- Prices --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Industries: Energy --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply --- Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development --- Energy: General --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Investment & securities --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Oil --- Oil prices --- Price elasticity --- Demand elasticity --- Oil production --- Commodities --- Economic theory --- Production --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Elasticity --- Economics --- United States

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This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 1½ percent. Further, while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest that its impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of the United States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent on energy exports will be affected adversely.

Economic development -- United States. --- Fiscal policy -- United States. --- Gas industry -- United States. --- Petroleum industry and trade -- United States. --- Mechanical Engineering --- Engineering & Applied Sciences --- Metallurgy & Mineralogy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Industries: Energy --- Investments: Energy --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Energy: General --- Energy industries & utilities --- International economics --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- Energy pricing --- Energy prices --- Foreign assets --- Natural gas sector --- Current account --- External position --- Economic sectors --- Balance of payments --- Oil --- Commodities --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments, Foreign --- Gas industry --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States

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Zonder onderwerpscode: economie