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This paper analyzes the effects of IMF member countries participation in the IMF’s Data Standards Initiatives (DSI) on the statistical quality of WEO forecasts. Results show that WEO forecasts for SDDS subscribers are in general better than for GDDS participants and those member countries than do not participate in the DSIs. Policy implications are that the DSI positively affect the statistical quality of forecasts and by extension improve the necessary conditions for multilateral surveillance and the provision of member countries with high quality policy advice.
Macroeconomics --- Forecasting --- Data Transmission Systems --- Estimation --- Specific Distributions --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: General --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Data capture & analysis --- Economic Forecasting --- Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) --- Economic forecasting --- Data dissemination --- GDP forecasting --- Data transmission systems --- National income --- Gdp forecasting
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The study presents an analysis of the information content of IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) indicators. There are significant differences in the quantity of information between DQAF dimensions and sub-dimensions. The most informative DQAF dimension is accessibility, followed by the prerequisites of quality and accuracy and reliability. The least informative DQAF dimensions are serviceability and assurances of integrity. The implication of these findings is that the current DQAF indicators do not maximize the amount of information that could be obtained during data ROSC missions. An additional set of assessments that would refine the existing DQAF indicators would be beneficial in maximizing the information gathered during data ROSC mission. The entropy of DQAF indicators could also be used in the construction of a cardinal index of data quality.
Financial disclosure. --- Information theory in economics. --- Disclosure of information. --- Information, Disclosure of --- Truthfulness and falsehood --- Economic cybernetics --- Econometrics --- Disclosure of personal finances --- Government in the sunshine --- Sunshine, Government in the --- Disclosure of information --- Macroeconomics --- Statistics --- Specific Distributions --- Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics: Other --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: General --- Computer Programs: Other --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Data capture & analysis --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) --- Financial statistics --- Monetary statistics --- Government finance statistics --- Consumer price indexes --- Economic statistics --- Finance --- Economic indicators --- Price indexes
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The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area has been adversely affected by the recent crises. Using survey data on thousands of euro area firms, we study factors that affect the access to finance of SMEs. We find that changes in bank funding costs and borrower leverage matter for firms’ access to finance. Increases in bank funding costs and borrowers’ debt-to-asset ratios are significantly and negatively associated with firms’ access to finance. The use of subsidies significantly improve access to finance of SMEs. Finally, access to finance is found to be positively related to firm size and firm age.
Corporations --- Small business --- Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy) --- Monetary transmission mechanism --- Monetary policy --- Businesses, Small --- Medium-sized business --- Micro-businesses --- Microbusinesses --- Microenterprises --- Small and medium-sized business --- Small and medium-sized enterprises --- Small businesses --- SMEs (Small business) --- Business --- Business enterprises --- Industries --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Stocks --- Trusts, Industrial --- Finance. --- Size --- Accounting --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Financial Crises --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Finance --- Bank credit --- Financial statements --- Financial crises --- Money --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Credit default swap --- Loans --- Financial institutions --- Banks and banking --- Finance, Public --- Spain
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The multipliers of taxes, and government consumption and investment expenditure for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) are estimated using vector autoregression models with panel data. The impact and long-run multipliers are below unity, suggesting that a great extent of the intended impulse ends up expanding imported demand. The long-run multipliers of taxes and consumption expenditure are non-different from zero statistically, while public investment has a long-run multiplier of 0.6. The results suggest that countercyclical policies to stimulate growth should focus on public investment.
Multiplier (Economics) --- Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Economic multiplier --- Economics --- Income --- National income --- Circular velocity of money --- Government policy --- Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. --- ECCU --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Public finance & taxation --- Expenditure --- Revenue administration --- Public investment spending --- Fiscal multipliers --- Expenditures, Public --- Revenue --- Public investments --- United States
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This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007–08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses registered, accompanied by long-lasting capital and total factor productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. Underscoring the importance of macroprudential policies and effective supervision, countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis. Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. Unprecedented and exceptional policy actions taken after the crisis helped mitigate countries’ postcrisis output losses.
Crisis Intervention. --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Financial Crises --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Finance --- Banking crises --- Financial crises --- Total factor productivity --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Financial markets --- Banks and banking --- Industrial productivity --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Financial services industry --- China, People's Republic of
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Central banks often buy or sell reserves-–-so called FX interventions (FXIs)---to dampen sharp exchange rate movements caused by volatile capital flows. At the same time, these interventions may entail unintended side effects. In this paper, we investigate whether FXIs incentivize firms to take on more unhedged FX debt, thereby increasing medium-term corporate vulnerabilities. Using a novel dataset with close to 5,000 nonfinancial firms across 19 emerging markets covering 2002--2017, we find that the firm-level share of FX debt rises following intensive use of FXIs, particularly for non-exporting firms in shallow financial markets with no FX debt to begin with. The magnitude of this effect is economically significant, with one standard deviation increase in FXI leading to an average 2 percentage points increase in the FX debt share. For reference, the median share of FX debt in the sample is zero.
Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Currencies --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Money --- United States
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Estimates of output gaps continue to play a key role in assessments of the stance of business cycles. This paper uses three approaches to examine the historical record of output gap measurements and their use in surveillance within the IMF. Firstly, the historical record of global output gap estimates shows a firm negative skew, in line with previous regional studies, as well as frequent historical revisions to output gap estimates. Secondly, when looking at the co-movement of output gap estimates and realized measures of slack, a positive, but limited, association is found between the two. Thirdly, text analysis techniques are deployed to assess how estimates of output gaps are used in Fund surveillance. The results reveal no strong bearing of output gap estimates on the coverage of the concept or direction of policy advice. The results suggest the need for continued caution in relying on output gaps for real-time policymaking and policy assessment.
Business and Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Economic growth --- International economics --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Business cycles --- Current account balance --- Production --- Prices --- Balance of payments --- Economic theory --- New Zealand
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Healthcare in the United States is the most expensive in the world, with real per capita spending growth averaging 4 percent since 1980. This paper examines the role of market power of U.S. healthcare providers and pharmaceutical companies. It finds that markups (the ability to charge prices above marginal costs) for publicly listed firms in the U.S. healthcare sector have almost doubled since the early 1980s and that they explain up to a quarter of average annual real per capita healthcare spending growth. The paper also finds evidence that the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion were successful in raising coverage and expanding care, but may have had the undesirable side-effect of leading to labor cost increases: Hourly wages for healthcare practitioners are estimated to have increased by 2 to 3 percent more in Medicaid expansion states over a five-year period, which could be an indication that the supply of medical services is relatively inelastic, even over a long time horizon, to the boost to demand created by the Medicaid expansion. These findings suggest that promoting more competition in healthcare markets and reducing barriers to entry can help contain healthcare costs.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Industries: Financial Services --- Insurance --- Finance: General --- Analysis of Health Care Markets --- Health: Government Policy --- Regulation --- Public Health --- Market Structure and Pricing: Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Insurance companies --- Financial institutions --- Labor costs --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic theory --- United States
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Central banks often buy or sell reserves-–-so called FX interventions (FXIs)---to dampen sharp exchange rate movements caused by volatile capital flows. At the same time, these interventions may entail unintended side effects. In this paper, we investigate whether FXIs incentivize firms to take on more unhedged FX debt, thereby increasing medium-term corporate vulnerabilities. Using a novel dataset with close to 5,000 nonfinancial firms across 19 emerging markets covering 2002--2017, we find that the firm-level share of FX debt rises following intensive use of FXIs, particularly for non-exporting firms in shallow financial markets with no FX debt to begin with. The magnitude of this effect is economically significant, with one standard deviation increase in FXI leading to an average 2 percentage points increase in the FX debt share. For reference, the median share of FX debt in the sample is zero.
United States --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Currencies --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Money
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Healthcare in the United States is the most expensive in the world, with real per capita spending growth averaging 4 percent since 1980. This paper examines the role of market power of U.S. healthcare providers and pharmaceutical companies. It finds that markups (the ability to charge prices above marginal costs) for publicly listed firms in the U.S. healthcare sector have almost doubled since the early 1980s and that they explain up to a quarter of average annual real per capita healthcare spending growth. The paper also finds evidence that the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion were successful in raising coverage and expanding care, but may have had the undesirable side-effect of leading to labor cost increases: Hourly wages for healthcare practitioners are estimated to have increased by 2 to 3 percent more in Medicaid expansion states over a five-year period, which could be an indication that the supply of medical services is relatively inelastic, even over a long time horizon, to the boost to demand created by the Medicaid expansion. These findings suggest that promoting more competition in healthcare markets and reducing barriers to entry can help contain healthcare costs.
United States --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Labor --- Industries: Financial Services --- Insurance --- Finance: General --- Analysis of Health Care Markets --- Health: Government Policy --- Regulation --- Public Health --- Market Structure and Pricing: Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Insurance companies --- Financial institutions --- Labor costs --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Income economics
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