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Book
Data Dissemination Standards and the Statistical Quality of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Forecasts
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ISBN: 146230124X 1455231401 1283554909 145524855X 9786613867353 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of IMF member countries participation in the IMF’s Data Standards Initiatives (DSI) on the statistical quality of WEO forecasts. Results show that WEO forecasts for SDDS subscribers are in general better than for GDDS participants and those member countries than do not participate in the DSIs. Policy implications are that the DSI positively affect the statistical quality of forecasts and by extension improve the necessary conditions for multilateral surveillance and the provision of member countries with high quality policy advice.


Book
Information Content of DQAF Indicators : Empirical Entropy Analysis
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462358764 1455233420 1282847473 9786612847479 1455205354 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The study presents an analysis of the information content of IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) indicators. There are significant differences in the quantity of information between DQAF dimensions and sub-dimensions. The most informative DQAF dimension is accessibility, followed by the prerequisites of quality and accuracy and reliability. The least informative DQAF dimensions are serviceability and assurances of integrity. The implication of these findings is that the current DQAF indicators do not maximize the amount of information that could be obtained during data ROSC missions. An additional set of assessments that would refine the existing DQAF indicators would be beneficial in maximizing the information gathered during data ROSC mission. The entropy of DQAF indicators could also be used in the construction of a cardinal index of data quality.


Book
SMEs’ Access to Finance in the Euro Area : What Helps or Hampers?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1484379675 1484379241 1484379713 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area has been adversely affected by the recent crises. Using survey data on thousands of euro area firms, we study factors that affect the access to finance of SMEs. We find that changes in bank funding costs and borrower leverage matter for firms’ access to finance. Increases in bank funding costs and borrowers’ debt-to-asset ratios are significantly and negatively associated with firms’ access to finance. The use of subsidies significantly improve access to finance of SMEs. Finally, access to finance is found to be positively related to firm size and firm age.

Keywords

Corporations --- Small business --- Transmission mechanism (Monetary policy) --- Monetary transmission mechanism --- Monetary policy --- Businesses, Small --- Medium-sized business --- Micro-businesses --- Microbusinesses --- Microenterprises --- Small and medium-sized business --- Small and medium-sized enterprises --- Small businesses --- SMEs (Small business) --- Business --- Business enterprises --- Industries --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Stocks --- Trusts, Industrial --- Finance. --- Size --- Accounting --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Financial Crises --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Finance --- Bank credit --- Financial statements --- Financial crises --- Money --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Credit default swap --- Loans --- Financial institutions --- Banks and banking --- Finance, Public --- Spain


Book
Fiscal Multipliers in the ECCU
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1484328450 148439805X 1484384970 Year: 2013 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The multipliers of taxes, and government consumption and investment expenditure for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) are estimated using vector autoregression models with panel data. The impact and long-run multipliers are below unity, suggesting that a great extent of the intended impulse ends up expanding imported demand. The long-run multipliers of taxes and consumption expenditure are non-different from zero statistically, while public investment has a long-run multiplier of 0.6. The results suggest that countercyclical policies to stimulate growth should focus on public investment.


Book
The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the 2008 Financial Crisis
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1498311709 1498311687 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007–08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses registered, accompanied by long-lasting capital and total factor productivity shortfalls relative to precrisis trends. Policy choices preceding the crisis and in its immediate aftermath influenced postcrisis variation in output. Underscoring the importance of macroprudential policies and effective supervision, countries with greater financial vulnerabilities in the precrisis years suffered larger output losses after the crisis. Countries with stronger precrisis fiscal positions and those with more flexible exchange rate regimes experienced smaller losses. Unprecedented and exceptional policy actions taken after the crisis helped mitigate countries’ postcrisis output losses.


Book
Do FX Interventions Lead to Higher FX Debt? Evidence from Firm-Level Data
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Central banks often buy or sell reserves-–-so called FX interventions (FXIs)---to dampen sharp exchange rate movements caused by volatile capital flows. At the same time, these interventions may entail unintended side effects. In this paper, we investigate whether FXIs incentivize firms to take on more unhedged FX debt, thereby increasing medium-term corporate vulnerabilities. Using a novel dataset with close to 5,000 nonfinancial firms across 19 emerging markets covering 2002--2017, we find that the firm-level share of FX debt rises following intensive use of FXIs, particularly for non-exporting firms in shallow financial markets with no FX debt to begin with. The magnitude of this effect is economically significant, with one standard deviation increase in FXI leading to an average 2 percentage points increase in the FX debt share. For reference, the median share of FX debt in the sample is zero.


Book
What Do We Talk About When We Talk About Output Gaps?
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Estimates of output gaps continue to play a key role in assessments of the stance of business cycles. This paper uses three approaches to examine the historical record of output gap measurements and their use in surveillance within the IMF. Firstly, the historical record of global output gap estimates shows a firm negative skew, in line with previous regional studies, as well as frequent historical revisions to output gap estimates. Secondly, when looking at the co-movement of output gap estimates and realized measures of slack, a positive, but limited, association is found between the two. Thirdly, text analysis techniques are deployed to assess how estimates of output gaps are used in Fund surveillance. The results reveal no strong bearing of output gap estimates on the coverage of the concept or direction of policy advice. The results suggest the need for continued caution in relying on output gaps for real-time policymaking and policy assessment.


Book
U.S. Healthcare: A Story of Rising Market Power, Barriers to Entry, and Supply Constraints
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Healthcare in the United States is the most expensive in the world, with real per capita spending growth averaging 4 percent since 1980. This paper examines the role of market power of U.S. healthcare providers and pharmaceutical companies. It finds that markups (the ability to charge prices above marginal costs) for publicly listed firms in the U.S. healthcare sector have almost doubled since the early 1980s and that they explain up to a quarter of average annual real per capita healthcare spending growth. The paper also finds evidence that the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion were successful in raising coverage and expanding care, but may have had the undesirable side-effect of leading to labor cost increases: Hourly wages for healthcare practitioners are estimated to have increased by 2 to 3 percent more in Medicaid expansion states over a five-year period, which could be an indication that the supply of medical services is relatively inelastic, even over a long time horizon, to the boost to demand created by the Medicaid expansion. These findings suggest that promoting more competition in healthcare markets and reducing barriers to entry can help contain healthcare costs.


Book
Do FX Interventions Lead to Higher FX Debt? Evidence from Firm-Level Data
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1513558781 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Central banks often buy or sell reserves-–-so called FX interventions (FXIs)---to dampen sharp exchange rate movements caused by volatile capital flows. At the same time, these interventions may entail unintended side effects. In this paper, we investigate whether FXIs incentivize firms to take on more unhedged FX debt, thereby increasing medium-term corporate vulnerabilities. Using a novel dataset with close to 5,000 nonfinancial firms across 19 emerging markets covering 2002--2017, we find that the firm-level share of FX debt rises following intensive use of FXIs, particularly for non-exporting firms in shallow financial markets with no FX debt to begin with. The magnitude of this effect is economically significant, with one standard deviation increase in FXI leading to an average 2 percentage points increase in the FX debt share. For reference, the median share of FX debt in the sample is zero.


Book
U.S. Healthcare: A Story of Rising Market Power, Barriers to Entry, and Supply Constraints
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1513588753 Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Healthcare in the United States is the most expensive in the world, with real per capita spending growth averaging 4 percent since 1980. This paper examines the role of market power of U.S. healthcare providers and pharmaceutical companies. It finds that markups (the ability to charge prices above marginal costs) for publicly listed firms in the U.S. healthcare sector have almost doubled since the early 1980s and that they explain up to a quarter of average annual real per capita healthcare spending growth. The paper also finds evidence that the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion were successful in raising coverage and expanding care, but may have had the undesirable side-effect of leading to labor cost increases: Hourly wages for healthcare practitioners are estimated to have increased by 2 to 3 percent more in Medicaid expansion states over a five-year period, which could be an indication that the supply of medical services is relatively inelastic, even over a long time horizon, to the boost to demand created by the Medicaid expansion. These findings suggest that promoting more competition in healthcare markets and reducing barriers to entry can help contain healthcare costs.

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