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This paper offers possible explanations for three generally observed facts about fiscal policy and development: (F1) The relative size of government increases as an economy develops, (F2) The rise in government and taxation are associated with rising or constant economic growth rates, and (F3) Today's developing countries have larger government sectors than did today's developed countries at similar stages of development. The explanations for these facts are based on the structural transformation from traditional (mostly agricultural) to modern (industrial and post-industrial) production, rising public infrastructure investment, and less representative governments in many of today's developing economies.
Fiscal policy --- Economic development --- Econometric models. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Government policy --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics: General --- Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change --- Industrial Price Indices --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Public investment spending --- Labor productivity --- Structural transformation --- Labor share --- Public investments --- Labor economics --- Wages --- United States
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We analyze how the altruism of an international financial institution (IFI) towards its lowincome member countries (LICs) alters the effectiveness of its loans. We study IFI loans to a credit-constrained LIC. The IFI's repayment policy is determined by the interplay of its concerns for the welfare of the loan recipient and its fiduciary responsibilities to creditor countries. If the IFI is unable to commit to repayment terms in advance, conditional loans are superior to unconditional loans. Thus, IFI altruism and the inability to commit are sufficient reasons to equip loans with conditions. Conditional loans produce an efficient allocation of resources, so altruism is not a fundamental reason that loans fail to increase welfare.
Loans, Foreign. --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Political conditionality --- International relations --- Economic assistance --- Loans, Foreign --- Foreign loans --- International loans --- Loans, International --- Loans --- Foreign loan insurance --- International Monetary Fund. --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Consumption --- Human capital --- Debt service schedules --- Return on investment --- Economics --- Debt service --- Saving and investment
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IMF lending is generally conditional on specified policies and outcomes. These conditions usually are negotiated compromises between policies initially favored by the Fund and by the country's authorities. In some cases the authorities might be satisfied enough with the outcome to take responsibility for it ("own" it) even though it was not their original preference. In other cases, they might accept the outcome only to obtain financing, in which case weak commitment might lead to poor implementation. This paper reviews the theoretical basis for the importance of ownership, summarizes what is known about its empirical effects, and suggests a strategy for strengthening it.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Political Economy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Foreign Aid --- Labor Economics: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Political economy --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Banking --- Finance --- Structural reforms --- Foreign aid --- Labor --- Multilateral development institutions --- Financial institutions --- Macrostructural analysis --- Economics --- International relief --- Labor economics --- Banks and banking --- Development banks --- Bulgaria
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Large stocks of U.S. dollars and other hard currencies circulate in the transition economies, in Latin America, and in other countries that have experienced macroeconomic mismanagement. Using a monetary model that combines the legal restrictions and crime-theoretic traditions, this paper demonstrates how leaky exchange controls lead to currency substitution and progressive dollarization. The paper also analyzes the impact of dollarization on the ability of governments to earn seigniorage, the dynamics of dollarization in a growing economy, and the central role of expectations—specifically, confidence in the domestic currency—in determining the extent of dollarization and, potentially, in reversing it.
Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Demand for Money --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Foreign Exchange --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- International Financial Markets --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Currencies --- Dollarization --- Anti-smuggling --- Stocks --- Currency markets --- Money --- Monetary policy --- Revenue administration --- Financial institutions --- Financial markets --- Smuggling --- Foreign exchange market --- United States
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Understanding of the domestic political environment is key to building broad country ownership and the successful implementation of reform programs supported by international financial institutions (IFIs). But recipient countries are not unitary actors: policymakers are influenced by special interest groups (SIGs) opposing reforms, leading to distorted policies. Using a new model of the financial relations between a benevolent IFI and a sovereign borrower subject to influence by SIGs, we analyze the determinants and welfare impacts of conditional and unconditional assistance. While conditionality may raise IFI welfare, economize on the amount of assistance, and lower domestic distortions, it may not always raise recipient country welfare. Recipient governments are always better off if assistance is provided unconditionally.
Exports and Imports --- Industries: Financial Services --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Foreign Aid --- Finance --- International economics --- Loans --- Foreign aid --- International relief
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Improving the effectiveness of financial assistance programs is a priority of international financial institutions (IFIs). This paper examines the effectiveness of alternative assistance instruments in a dynamic political economy framework. Economic policies of the receiving country are distorted by the influence of a domestic interest group. The assistance-providing IFI aims at reducing these distortions. The IFI provides assistance either as grants or loans, and either conditionally on reducing policy distortions or unconditionally. The paper shows that, other things constant, one-time grants are more effective than loan rollovers when assistance is unconditional, but that the opposite is true when assistance is conditional.
Loans, Foreign. --- Economic assistance. --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Political conditionality --- International relations --- Economic assistance --- Loans, Foreign --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- Economic policy --- International economic relations --- Foreign loans --- International loans --- Loans, International --- Loans --- Foreign loan insurance --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Finance --- National income --- Multilateral development institutions --- Financial institutions --- National accounts --- Development banks --- United States
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International financial assistance (loans and grants) can potentially raise recipients' welfare in two ways, by affecting a direct resource transfer and by facilitating efficiency-enhancing reforms. In practice, barriers to reform limit the potential of assistance to deliver these two dividends. In this paper, we analyze assistance programs designed to ensure that recipient governments voluntarily adopt reforms and overcome barriers associated with: (i) the reaction of special interests to the prospect of reform; (ii) the possibility of default and political instability in the recipient country; and (iii) adverse selection and moral hazard. Reform barriers raise the cost of incentive-compatible assistance and may result either in no assistance being forthcoming or assistance that ensures repayment but not the implementation of reforms. Critical to the choice of assistance programs is the size of the rent accruing to special interests in the absence of reform and the limited liability rents needed to ensure that repayment terms do not threaten the country's political stability. Optimal assistance contracts feature flexible repayment terms related to real economic growth in recipient countries.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Foreign Aid --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Loans --- Tax incentives --- Personal income --- Moral hazard --- Foreign aid --- Income --- Financial risk management --- International relief --- Economic assistance. --- Economic development.
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We present estimates of welfare by country for 2007 and 2014 using the methodology of Jones and Klenow (2016) which incorporates consumption, leisure, mortality and inequality, and we extend the methodology to include environmental externalities. During the period of the global financial crisis welfare grew slightly more rapidly than income per capita, mainly due to improvements in life expectancy. This led to welfare convergence in most regions towards advanced country levels. Introducing environmental effects changes the welfare ranking for countries that rely heavily on natural resources, highlighting the importance of the natural resource base in welfare. This methodology could provide a theoretically consistent and tractable way of monitoring progress in several Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators.
Macroeconomics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Health Behavior --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Environment and Development --- Environment and Trade --- Sustainability --- Environmental Accounts and Accounting --- Environmental Equity --- Population Growth --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Health: General --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Health economics --- Climate change --- Income --- Consumption --- Health --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Income inequality --- National accounts --- Environment --- Economics --- Greenhouse gases --- Income distribution --- United States
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Growth theory provides a rich and versatile analytical framework through which fundamental questions about economic development can be examined. This book is an introduction to the newer features of growth theory that are particularly useful in examining the issues of economic development. Structural transformation, in which developing countries transition from traditional production in largely rural areas to modern production in largely urban areas, is an important causal force in creating early economic growth, and as such, is made central in this approach. Towards this end, the authors augment the Solow model to include endogenous theories of saving, fertility, human capital, institutional arrangements, and policy formation, creating a single two-sector model of structural transformation. Based on applied research and practical experiences in macroeconomic development, the model in this book presents a more rigorous, quantifiable, and explicitly dynamic dual economy approach to development. Common microeconomic foundations and notation are used throughout, with each chapter building on the previous material in a continuous flow. With its single model and focus on data and policy analysis, this text is intended for beginning graduate students and policy makers interested in economic development.
Economics/Management Science. --- Development Economics. --- Economic Growth. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics. --- Economics. --- Endogenous growth (Economics). --- Macroeconomics. --- Economie politique --- Croissance endogène (Economie politique) --- Macroéconomie --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Development economics. --- Economic growth. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Economic development --- Economic development.
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The econometric literature has been unable to establish a robust association between foreign aid and growth and poverty reduction. In this paper we argue that aid effectiveness must be assessed using methods that go beyond cross-country regressions. We calibrate a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of generating large income gaps between rich and poor countries. The model quantifies three sources of poverty: (i) lack of access to international capital, (ii) low schooling and high fertility (a poverty trap), and (iii) antigrowth domestic fiscal policy. We analyze policies designed to address each source of poverty and estimate and compare the aid cost of implementing the different policies. The policies differ dramatically in the extent and timing of their growth effects, and in the aid cost of their implementation.
Economic assistance -- Econometric models. --- Economic development -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Poverty -- Econometric models. --- Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Economic assistance --- Economic development --- Poverty --- Econometric models. --- Destitution --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- Wealth --- Basic needs --- Begging --- Poor --- Subsistence economy --- Economic policy --- International economic relations --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Labor --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Poverty and Homelessness --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- Education: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Macroeconomics --- Education --- Labour --- income economics --- Poverty & precarity --- Fiscal policy --- Capital productivity --- Productivity --- Production --- Industrial productivity --- United States
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