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Globalization and technological advancement have made the world a dynamic global village where information travels across continents with the speed of light. In the modern age, while uninterrupted and efficient communication has various advantages, there also exist various evils. One such menace is the ‘Fake News’. The phenomenon has spread around the world like wildfire and has increasingly become a challenge for the general public to differentiate, on their own, between honest and fake information. The impact, especially in the economic dimension, it has on the dynamics of nations and outside of its boundaries cannot be ignored any further. Hence, this study seeks to investigate the current fake news detection practices and aims to provide necessary improvement proposals in this domain of research. The research provides an in-depth investigation of the problem of the spread of fake content and provides valuable basic information on its influence around the world. As a solution, comprehensive research is conducted on the blockchain technology and its industrial applications, among various alternative concepts, for fake news detection. Taking inspiration from various already developed solutions and on-going research, a blockchain framework is proposed as a concrete solution to counter the persistent risk of fake news and disinformation which upholds the core values of transparency, trustworthiness, traceability and authenticity. The results indicate that none of the developed or on-going research provides an effective blueprint of the solution and there is a need for an integrated framework which has a user-centric approach. The thesis concludes by discussing how to improve the current fake news detection techniques by proposing an integrated fake news detection framework model following a blockchain-inspired approach. The research can also help in terms of extensive research for the future in this area of study.
Fake News --- Blockchain --- Economics --- Information security --- Journalism --- Fake news detection --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Stratégie & innovation
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The information contained in news articles plays a key role on financial markets. It may describe changes in the fundamentals of a company or influence the way investors perceive the risk associated with it. This paper aims at measuring with mathematical means the main underlying semantic content of news articles, such that it captures information useful to forecast volatility. A modified EGARCH model with external factors, obtained from a latent semantic alaysis on news articles, is proposed to measure the impact on volatility induced by the latent semantic content of the textual news data. I find that several semantic dimensions play an important role in explaining observed volatility, while others are useful to forecast it. It is likely, that with further research, a model based on semantic content could greatly improve our understanding of the market’s response to news releases.
LSA --- GARCH --- EGARCH --- GARCH-X --- Latent Semantic Analysis --- Volatility Forecasting --- S&P500 --- Lagged corredlations --- Reuters --- News --- News Articles --- Conditional Volatility --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance
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La question problème de ce mémoire était de savoir si le système de clearing actuel, à savoir les chambres de compensation, pouvait être remplacer par la technologie Blockchain.
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The spread between value and growth (also called the value premium) is one of the best accepted iterations of a market anomaly, however the reasons for the over performance of value portfolios over growth portfolios is still a source of debate. The nature of the risk that value stocks bear is often related to the fact that these companies have high ratios of fixed assets and thus, are less flexible than growth stocks in making adjustments during recessions. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the existing corpus of literature by identifying which macroeconomic factors have an impact on the value premium. This thesis tries to answer two main questions. First, can the value premium be explained by the business cycle risk? Second, do macroeconomic variables have an impact on the volatility of value, growth, and HML returns? Several econometrics models on the financial time series have been applied to answer these questions. First, we analyzed the impact over business cycles of a set of macroeconomic variables on the value premium using a Markov Switching model. This model suggests several conclusions. First, that asymmetries can be observed over the business cycles for the value, growth and HML portfolios, meaning that they react differently to changes in economic conditions over to the business cycles. Then, during the economic downturn, value excess returns are more strongly affected compared to growth excess returns by certain macroeconomic factors, specifically the growth rate of gross private domestic investments, the growth rate of gross government investments, the term spread changes, the credit spread changes, the inflation rate, the growth rate of industrial production and the growth rate of the aggregated profits. These provide evidence that the value premium can be further explained by economic fundamentals rather than the behavior of investors. Our results prove that value stocks have to bear the macroeconomic risk and this is consistent with the flexibility hypothesis. Then, this study identifies a set of macroeconomic factors which influence the prediction of the value and growth excess returns using the elastic net algorithm. These results confirm that macroeconomic factors are drivers of the value premium in both economic downturns as well as upturns. Finally, using a subset of the data available in a monthly frequency, we have tested the impact of a set of macroeconomic variables on the volatility of value, growth and HML returns through the GARCH-G(1,1) and GARCH-S(1,1) models. The findings have led us to conclude that macroeconomic variables have a significant impact on the value and growth excess returns and therefore, also influence the volatility of the value premium.
Value investing --- Business cycle --- Value premium --- Markov Switching model --- Elastic-net --- GARCH --- GARCH-S --- GARCH-G --- Macroeconomic variables --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance
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This study consists in a comparative study of the determinants of Belgian and Luxembourg mutual funds' ongoing charges. In this study, a sample of UCITS funds domiciled in Belgium and Luxembourg are considered over the period 2014-2017. Its purpose is to highlight the determinants of the ongoing charges figure incurred by investors, the way it compares amongst the two countries under scrutiny and how the country of domicile interacts with determinants identified in the existing literature. The main results of this study suggest that Luxembourg UCITS benefit from a comparative cost-advantage on ongoing charges when compared with Belgian UCITS. Such a difference is partly attributable to the economies of experience found to be achieved exclusively by Luxembourg funds. It is also explained by the relatively lower increase in ongoing charges resulting from cross-border distribution. Yet, the results obtained suggest that this advantage is less prevalent for an investor choosing to invest through a sales intermediary and being charged a load.
Ongoing charges figure --- recurring charges --- determinants --- mutual funds --- Belgium --- Luxembourg --- costs --- UCITS --- fees --- Belgique --- Luxembourg --- fonds d'investissement --- OPCVM --- frais --- charges récurrentes --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance
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Nowadays, most people use banking services in order to make a payment or to send money abroad. We say that the banks play the role of financial intermediary. Although, these banking services are costly and take time to be carried out. Due to this and the financial crisis, people are more and more doubtful to use the financial institutions. Consequently, an unknown person using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto invents the first crypto-money called bitcoin in 2008. This no-regulated virtual money is created by the new technology called "Blockchain". This technology is going to change the world. Someone won't pass through an intermediary anymore to make exchange with someone else because he will be able to make it through the Blockchain. In my thesis, I'm focusing on the impacts of this new technology on the financial intermediation. I would like to answer these following questions throughout this work: which are the effects of the Blockchain on the financial intermediation: opportunity or threat? Does the role of the financial intermediaries will change in the future? Do the banks can transform the threat in an opportunity thanks to a bank’s interest in the Blockchain? To find the answers, I write firstly about the current financial system to get a good understanding of the different roles that can run a financial institution and also the advantages and disadvantages of this financial institution. Then, I do a focus on the Blockchain with its real applications, its pros and cons, and its costs. Finally, I explain why the banks are forced to develop their intermediation with the Blockchain. Thanks to this thesis, we can conclude that the Blockchain is a great opportunity for the banking sector to develop their financial intermediation. Indeed, this technology has several advantages: trust without trusted third party, efficiency, costs cutting, better velocity and higher security in the transactions. Right now, the banks have to innovate their intermediation though the Blockchain. Otherwise, their roles of intermediaries could be deleted.
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Mr. Satoshi Nakamoto has launched the Bitcoin in 2008. Thereafter, it is nearly 2200 other cryptocurrencies that have been created. Furthermore, over the last few years, financial markets are experiencing bad performances and correlation coefficients between traditional assets are constantly increasing. This thesis examines, considering those changes, the cryptocurrency market in terms of investment opportunity and portfolio diversification. Moreover, this report will answer to two main questions Does the cryptocurrency market represent a new investment opportunity? and If so, what is its potential in terms of portfolio diversification ? To be able to answer the above questions, an empirical study has been conducted based on two proposals: first, portfolio allocation and second, portfolio optimization. The Modern Portfolio Theory developed by H. Markowitz (1952) and performance indicators such as the Sharpe and Sortino ratios have been used to carry out this research. Primarily, three cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, ether and ripple) were added one by one to portfolios whose asset mix had been previously defined according to three types of investment strategies: defensive, moderate and aggressive. It emerged that the best possible choice to maximize the Sharpe ratio and to minimize the standard deviation is by adding a 10% proportion of bitcoin in a defensive strategy portfolio mainly due to the weak correlation the cryptocurrency shares with bonds. Anyone who wants to maximize the Sortino ratio would rather choose the ripple due to its low downside deviation. Secondly, the impact of adding cryptocurrencies to portfolios previously diversified with other traditional assets such as stocks and bonds has been evaluated. According to the results, the inclusion of bitcoin (1.75%), ether (0.45%) and ripple (0,02%) increases the Sharpe ratio. Indeed, the efficient frontier moves upward when the investment in the cryptocurrency market is not constrained, which allows the investor to achieve a higher return for the same level of risk. Moreover, the three cryptocurrencies seem to be a very good option when it comes to the Sortino ratio improvement. Indeed, the results show that a proportion of 10% in cryptocurrencies maximizes the ratio. One can conclude that the cryptocurrency market represents an investment opportunity for portfolio diversification and deserves to be taken seriously into account by investors.
crypto-monnaie --- diversification de portefeuille --- bitcoin --- cryptocurrency --- portfolio diversification --- bitcoin --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance
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The profitability effect is a recently documented effect that has been proven to be existent on the U.S market by Novy-Marx (2010) using the Fama & French three factor model. Using the European stocks consisting the STOXX Europe 600 index, for a period of 10 years, this study attempts to uncover the existence of the profitability effect on the European market, using the Fama & French five factor models.
Market anomalies --- Factor models --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance
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In a constantly changing world, recent technological innovations are flooding the market and changing the financial landscape. It is in this context that a technology appears, the blockchain. This one seems so promising that some people do not hesitate to talk about a real revolution, like the one of the Internet in its time. At the end of my master's degree in finance, my choice of thesis naturally focused on the role of the blockchain in future financial transactions. This paper has several objectives: first, to better understand what this new technology represents, its characteristics and its implications in the financial world. The next step is to identify the different applications in the field of finance. Then, a series of interviewees helped me to highlight the different barriers that could slow down the development of the blockchain. At the end of this research, it appears that the blockchain can potentially upset the way we do business because of its characteristics, namely: immutability, transparency, decentralization, ... However, close collaboration between all the actors concerned is necessary, but may be problematic.
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