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The economic debate on existence and definition of the middle class has become particularly lively in many developing countries. Despite this growing interest, the identification of the middle class group in these countries remains quite challenging. Building on a recently developed framework to define the middle class, this paper tries to estimate the Nigerian middle class size in a rigorous quantitative manner. By exploiting publicly available panel data, the expenditure associated to a 10 percent probability of falling into poverty is estimated, and this is used as the middle class threshold for Nigeria. The threshold expenditure for the middle class in Nigeria is found to be 378.39 Naira per capita per day (2010 PPP). Relying on this threshold and through survey-to-survey imputation the size of Nigeria's middle class in 2003 is also estimated. The results show that there has been considerable improvement on the size of the middle class and poverty reduction between 2003 and 2013. Poverty decreased between 2003 and 2013 from 45 to 33 percent, while the middle class increased from 13 percent to 19 percent. Nevertheless the results still paint a heterogeneous picture of poverty and the middle class in Nigeria, where the largest portion of the population, although above the poverty threshold, continues to live with average or high vulnerability to poverty.

Economic Development --- Generalized Maximum Entropy --- Inequality --- Middle Class --- Social Inclusion & Institutions --- Urban Partnerships & Poverty --- Vulnerability

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This papers investigates to what extent internal migration contributes to improving households' welfare in Ghana. Using the most recent and nationally representative household survey (Ghana Living Standards Survey 2012/13), the estimates indicate that on average migration increases consumption significantly, and the effect is driven by households migrating from inland regions to the coastal areas of the country. The analysis also finds heterogeneous effects by gender and educational attainment, with migrant households headed by males and highly educated individuals faring significantly better than migrant households headed by females and low-educated individuals. The paper shows convincing evidence that the positive impact of migration on consumption is attributable to a physical mobility effect rather than changes in labor force status or sector of economic activity. However, the migration process in Ghana has important downsides, such as the brain drain and disruption of the social fabric in the communities originating migration. Future research in this area is warranted to have a more comprehensive picture of the social impact of migration in Ghana.

Consumption --- Internal Migration

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This paper proposes a new method for improving the design effect of household surveys based on a two-stage design in which the first stage clusters, or primary selection units, are stratified along administrative boundaries. Improvement of the design effect can result in more precise survey estimates (smaller standard errors and confidence intervals) or reduction of the necessary sample size, that is, a reduction in the budget needed for a survey. The proposed method is based on the availability of a previously conducted poverty mapping, that is, spatial descriptions of the distribution of poverty, which are finely disaggregated in small geographic units, such as cities, municipalities, districts, or other administrative partitions of a country that are linked to primary selection units. Such information is then used to select primary selection units with systematic sampling by introducing further implicit stratification in the survey design, to maximize the improvement of the design effect. The proposed methodology has been implemented for the new 2021 Household Budget Survey in Tunisia, conducted under a cooperation project funded by the World Bank. The underlying poverty mapping is based on the 2015 Household Budget Survey and the 2014 Population and Housing Census.

Household Survey --- Implicit Stratification --- Income Distribution --- Inequality --- Poverty Mapping --- Poverty Measurement --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Survey Design

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Modifying the national poverty line to the context of observed consumption patterns of the poor is becoming popular. A context-specific poverty line would be more consistent with preferences. This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence that the contrary holds and that the national poverty line is more appropriate for comparing living standards among the poor, at least under prevailing conditions in Mozambique and Ghana. The problem lies in the risk of downscaling the burden associated with cheap-calorie diets and the low nonfood component of the rural poor. The paper illustrates how observed behavior may neither reveal preferences nor detect heterogeneous preferences among the poor. Rather, the consumption pattern is the upshot of the poverty condition itself. Poverty is confused with preferences if observed cheap-calorie diets are seen as a matter of taste, whereas in fact they reflect a lack of means to consume a preferred diet of higher quality, as food Engel curve estimates indicate. Likewise, a smaller nonfood component is not a matter of a particular distaste, but an adaptation to the fact that various nonfood items (such as transport) and basic services (such as electricity and health) are simply absent in rural areas.

Food & Beverage Industry --- Food Engel-Curve --- Heterogeneous Preferences --- Poverty --- Poverty Lines --- Revealed Preferences --- Rural Poverty Reduction

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In many regions of the world, the persistent, and growing, proportion of young people who are currently not in employment, education, or training is of global concern. This is no less true of Morocco: about 30 percent of the Moroccan population between ages 15 and 24 are currently not in employment, education, or training. Drawing from various rounds of Moroccan labor force surveys, this paper contributes to understanding the complex dynamics of labor markets in developing countries. First, it identifies the socioeconomic determinants of Morocco's young population not in employment, education, or training. Second, employing a synthetic panel methodology in the context of labor market analysis, the paper describes how the conditions of individuals in this group has changed over time. One striking, and worrisome, pattern that emerges from the 2010 synthetic panel data is that, even after 10 years, a majority of the young population not in employment, education, or training remained outside the labor market or education, with very little chance of moving out of their situation. Their chronic stagnancy confirms the powerful effect that initial conditions have on determining young people's future outcomes.

Employment and Unemployment --- Gender Equality --- Labor Force --- Labor Markets --- Synthetic Panel --- Unemployment --- Youth Employment