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We quantify the extent to which public-sector employment crowds out private-sector employment using specially assembled datasets for a large cross-section of developing and advanced countries, and discuss the implications for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Caucasus and Central Asia. These countries simultaneously display high unemployment rates, low private-sector employment rates and high proportions of government-sector employment. Regressions of either private-sector employment rates or unemployment rates on two measures of public-sector employment point to full crowding out. This means that high rates of public employment, which incur substantial fiscal costs, have a large negative impact on private employment rates and do not reduce overall unemployment rates.

Labor market. --- Civil service. --- Bureaucrats --- Career government service --- Civil servants --- Civil service --- Government employees --- Government service --- Public employees --- Public service (Civil service) --- Public administration --- Public officers --- Public service employment --- Employees --- Market, Labor --- Supply and demand for labor --- Markets --- Law and legislation --- Legal status, laws, etc. --- Supply and demand --- Labor --- Public Finance --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Labor Demand --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: Public Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Other --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: General --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Public employment --- Employment rate --- Government debt management --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Economic theory --- Debts, Public --- United Arab Emirates --- Income economics

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The COVID-19 pandemic crisis has severely shocked the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, which could have important implications for macro-financial stability going forward because of the large size of the sector and its strong interconnectedness with the real economy. Using a novel methodology, this paper quantifies vulnerabilities in the CRE sector and analyzes policy tools available to mitigate related risks. The analysis shows that CRE prices were overvalued in several major advanced economies in 2020:Q1. It also shows that such price misalignments increase the likelihood of future price corrections and exacerbate downside risks to future GDP growth. While the path of recovery in the sector will depend inherently on the pace of overall economic recovery and the structural shifts induced by the pandemic, easy financial conditions may contribute to an increase in financial vulnerabilities and persistent price misalignment. Macroprudential policy can, however, be effective in curbing the financial stability risks posed by the CRE sector.

United States --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Real Estate --- Finance: General --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, and Grants --- Health Behavior --- Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Crises --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Real estate prices --- Prices --- Macroprudential policy --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Financial sector risk --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Communicable diseases --- Housing --- Economic policy --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Financial risk management --- Covid-19