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Remittances sent by African migrants have become an important source of external finance for countries in the Sub-Saharan African region. In many African countries, these flows are larger than foreign direct investment and portfolio debt and equity flows. In some cases, they are similar in size to official aid from multilateral and bilateral donors. Remittance markets in Africa, however, remain less developed than other regions. The share of informal or unrecorded remittances is among the highest for Sub-Saharan African countries. Remittance costs tend to be significantly higher in Africa both

Sociology of minorities --- International finance --- Sub-Saharan Africa --- Africa, Sub-Saharan --Economic conditions. --- Africa, Sub-Saharan --Emigration and immigration --Economic aspects. --- Africans --Economic aspects --Europe, Western. --- Economic development --Finance --Africa, Sub-Saharan. --- Emigrant remittances --Africa, Sub-Saharan. --- Financial services industry --Africa, Sub-Saharan. --- Immigrants --Economic aspects --Europe, Western. --- Emigrant remittances --- Economic development --- Financial services industry --- Africans --- Immigrants --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Economic History --- Economic aspects --- Africa, Sub-Saharan --- Emigration and immigration --- Economic aspects. --- Economic conditions. --- Emigrants --- Foreign-born population --- Foreign population --- Foreigners --- Migrants --- Services, Financial --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Immigrant remittances --- Remittances, Emigrant --- Africa, Black --- Africa, Subsaharan --- Africa, Tropical --- Africa South of the Sahara --- Black Africa --- Sub-Sahara Africa --- Subsahara Africa --- Subsaharan Africa --- Tropical Africa --- Persons --- Aliens --- Ethnology --- Service industries --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Foreign exchange

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The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

Agriculture & Farming Systems --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Economic growth --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Foreign exchange --- Globalization --- Growth rates --- Rapid growth --- Remittances

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Zonder onderwerpscode: wereldeconomie, ontwikkelingsproblematiek

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Macro- and micro-economic evidence suggests a positive role of remittances in preparing households against natural disasters and in coping with the loss afterwards. Analysis of cross-country macroeconomic data shows that remittances increase in the aftermath of natural disasters in countries that have a larger number of migrants abroad. Analysis of household survey data in Bangladesh shows that per capita consumption was higher in remittance-receiving households than in others after the 1998 flood. Ethiopian remittance-dependent households seem to use cash reserves rather than sell livestock to cope with drought. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, international remittance-receiving households, especially those receiving remittances from high-income developed countries, tend to have housing built of concrete rather than mud and greater access to communication equipment, suggesting that they are better prepared against natural disasters.

Debt Markets --- Developing countries --- Environment --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Food security --- Foreign direct investment --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household level --- International migrants --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migrant --- Migration --- Natural Disasters --- Natural disasters --- Number of migrants --- Policy --- Policy research --- Policy research working paper --- Population --- Population Policies --- Progress --- Remittance --- Remittances --- Safety net --- Sustainable development --- Vulnerability --- Workshop

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The authors attempt to predict sovereign ratings for developing countries that do not have risk ratings from agencies such as Fitch, Moody's, and Standard and Poor's. Ratings affect capital flows to developing countries through international bond, loan, and equity markets. Sovereign rating also acts as a ceiling for the foreign currency rating of sub-sovereign borrowers. As of the end of 2006, however, only 86 developing countries have been rated by the rating agencies. Of these, 15 countries have not been rated since 2004. Nearly 70 developing countries have never been rated. The results indicate that the unrated countries are not always at the bottom of the rating spectrum. Several unrated poor countries appear to have a "B" or higher rating, in a similar range as the emerging market economies with capital market access. Drawing on the literature, the analysis presents a stylized relationship between borrowing costs and the credit rating of sovereign bonds. The launch spread rises as the credit rating deteriorates, registering a sharp rise at the investment grade threshold. Based on these findings, a case can be made in favor of helping poor countries obtain credit ratings not only for sovereign borrowing, but for sub-sovereign entities' access to international debt and equity capital. The rating model, along with the stylized relationship between spreads and ratings can be useful for securitization and other financial structures, and for leveraging official aid for improving borrowing terms in poor countries.

Access to Finance --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Capital flows --- Debt Markets --- Developing Countries --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging market --- Emerging market economies --- Emerging Markets --- Equity markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Foreign currency --- International bond --- Loan --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Sovereign rating --- Sovereign Ratings