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Government --- Third World: economic development problems --- Sub-Saharan Africa --- Political stability --- Africa, Sub-Saharan --- Economic conditions --- Politics and government --- Developing countries: economic development problems --- Political stability - Africa, Sub-Saharan - 21st century --- Africa, Sub-Saharan - Economic conditions - 21st century --- Africa, Sub-Saharan - Politics and government - 21st century
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"By the end of the twentieth century, sub-Saharan Africa had experienced twenty-five years of economic and political disaster. While 'economic miracles' in China and India raised hundreds of millions from extreme poverty, Africa seemed to have been overtaken by violent conflict and mass destitution, and ranked lowest in the world in just about every economic and social indicator. Working in Busia, a small Kenyan border town, economist Edward Miguel began to notice something different starting in 1997: modest but steady economic progress, with new construction projects, flower markets, shops, and ubiquitous cell phones. In "Africa's Turn?" Miguel tracks a decade of comparably hopeful economic trends throughout sub-Saharan Africa and suggests that we may be seeing a turnaround. He bases his hopes on a range of recent changes: democracy is finally taking root in many countries; China's successes have fueled large-scale investment in Africa; and rising commodity prices have helped as well. Miguel warns, though, that the growth is fragile. Violence and climate change could derail it quickly, and he argues for specific international assistance when drought and civil strife loom."--Book cover.
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Meet the economic gangster. He's the United Nations diplomat who double-parks his Mercedes on New York City streets at rush hour because the cops can't touch him--he has diplomatic immunity. He's the Chinese smuggler who dodges tariffs by magically transforming frozen chickens into frozen turkeys. The dictator, the warlord, the unscrupulous bureaucrat who bilks the developing world of billions in aid. The calculating crook who views stealing and murder as just another part of his business strategy. And, in the wrong set of circumstances, he might just be you. In Economic Gangsters
Economic order --- Third World: economic development problems --- Public administration --- Political sociology --- Developing countries --- Corruption --- Political corruption --- Smuggling. --- 844.2 sociaaleconomische structuur --- 848 Geweld --- armoede --- delicten --- economische groei --- economische politiek --- inkomensverdeling --- ontwikkelingshulp --- ontwikkelingslanden --- welvaartseconomie --- 330.34 --- Contraband trade --- Rumrunning --- Crime --- Customs administration --- Boss rule --- Corruption (in politics) --- Graft in politics --- Malversation --- Political scandals --- Politics, Practical --- Misconduct in office --- Corrupt practices --- Ethics --- Economic aspects. --- Economische ontwikkeling. Regionale economische ontwikkeling --- -Political corruption --- -Smuggling --- 364.1323 --- Economic aspects --- -Electronic information resources --- E-books --- 330.34 Economische ontwikkeling. Regionale economische ontwikkeling --- Smuggling --- 858 Geweld --- Sociologie van de politiek --- Economische orde --- Derde Wereld: economische ontwikkelingsproblematiek --- Openbaar bestuur --- Ontwikkelingslanden --- Developing countries: economic development problems
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Most nations have experienced an internal armed conflict since 1960. The past decade has witnessed an explosion of research into the causes and consequences of civil wars, belatedly bringing the topic into the economics mainstream. This article critically reviews this interdisciplinary literature and charts productive paths forward. Formal theory has focused on a central puzzle: why do civil wars occur at all when, given the high costs of war, groups have every incentive to reach an agreement that avoids fighting? Explanations have focused on information asymmetries and the inability to sign binding contracts in the absence of the rule of law. Economic theory has made less progress, however, on the thornier (but equally important) problems of why armed groups form and cohere, and why individuals decide to fight. Likewise, the actual behavior of armed organizations and their leaders is poorly understood. On the empirical side, a vast cross-country econometric literature has aimed to identify the causes of civil war. While most work is plagued by econometric identification problems, low per capita incomes, slow economic growth and geographic conditions favoring insurgency are the factors most robustly linked to civil war. We argue that microlevel analysis and data are needed to truly decipher war's causes, and understand the recruitment, organization, and conduct of armed groups. Recent advances in this area are highlighted. Finally, turning to the economic legacies of war, we frame the literature in terms of neoclassical economic growth theory. Emerging stylized facts include the ability of some economies to experience rapid macroeconomic recoveries, while certain human capital impacts appear more persistent. Yet econometric identification has not been adequately addressed, and there is little consensus on the most effective policies to avert conflicts or promote postwar recovery. The evidence is weakest where it is arguably most important: in understanding civil wars' effects on institutions, technology, and social norms.
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Miguel, Satyanath and Sergenti (2004) use rainfall variation as an instrument to show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. In the reduced form regression they find that higher rainfall is associated with less conflict. Ciccone (2010) claims that this conclusion is 'erroneous' and argues that higher rainfall levels are actually linked to more conflict. In this paper we show that the results in Ciccone's paper are based on incorrect STATA code, outdated conflict data, a weak first stage regression and a questionable application of the GMM estimator. Leaving aside these data and econometric issues, Ciccone's surprising results do not survive obvious robustness checks. We therefore conclude that Ciccone's main claims are largely incorrect and reconfirm the original result by Miguel, Satyanath and Sergenti (2004), finding that adverse economic growth shocks, driven by falling rainfall, increases the likelihood of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa.
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