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Under adverse macroeconomic conditions, the potential realization of corporate sector vulnerabilities could pose major risks to the economy. This paper assesses corporate vulnerabilities in Indonesia by using a Bottom-Up Default Analysis (BuDA) approach, which allows projecting corporate probabilities of default (PDs) under different macroeconomic scenarios. In particular, a protracted recession and the ensuing currency depreciation could erode buffers on corporate balance sheets, pushing up the probabilities of default (PDs) in the corporate sector to the high levels observed during the Global Financial Crisis. While this is a low-probability scenario, the results suggest the need to closely monitor vulnerabilities and strengthen contingency plans.

Finance --- E-books --- Banks and Banking --- Corporate Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Computational Techniques --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Financial services law & regulation --- Monetary economics --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- International economics --- Hedging --- Currencies --- Corporate sector --- External debt --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Money --- Economic sectors --- Financial risk management --- Business enterprises --- Debts, External --- Indonesia