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This paper compares the hypothetical performance of various monetary policy rules with that of the discretionary policies actually pursued in Japan over the 1986-91 period. The results suggest that simple rules based on targeting growth in either the money supply, nominal income, or prices would have failed to stabilize economic variables more successfully than discretionary policies. At the same time, it appears that an indicator of monetary conditions incorporating movements in the real exchange rate and the real interest rate would have been useful in assessing the effect of current policies on future activity.

Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary Policy --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Short term interest rates --- Exchange rates --- Personal income --- Real interest rates --- Prices --- Financial services --- National accounts --- Interest rates --- Income --- Japan

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The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation biases. Adjusting for these biases, there is little evidence of predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Uncovered interest parity fares better at long horizons, but reflects information already embodied in market prices; in this sense, it may not be useful as an indicator of exchange rate misalignment. While more elaborate models of fundamentals might have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing predictability.

Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Purchasing power parity --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Interest rate parity --- Real effective exchange rates --- Financial services --- Interest rates --- Canada

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This volume brings together various analytical studies the IMF staff has undertaken on the Japanese economy, focusing on two areas of particular interest for both longer-term economic performance and recent cyclical developments. The first is Japan's saving behavior, the second is the remarkable swing in asset prices that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

International finance --- Japan --- Saving and investment --- Stocks --- Financial crises --- Prices --- Japan. --- 330.32 <520> --- 330.56 <520> --- 336.76 (520) --- 338 (520) --- -Stocks --- -Financial crises --- -JP / Japan - Japon --- 305.91 --- 339.311.3 --- 339.311.1 --- 339.311.0 --- 339.311.2 --- 332.632220952 --- 330.05 --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Business cycles --- Common shares --- Common stocks --- Equities --- Equity capital --- Equity financing --- Shares of stock --- Stock issues --- Stock offerings --- Stock trading --- Trading, Stock --- Securities --- Bonds --- Corporations --- Going public (Securities) --- Stock repurchasing --- Stockholders --- Accumulation, Capital --- Capital accumulation --- Capital formation --- Investment and saving --- Saving and thrift --- Capital --- Supply-side economics --- Wealth --- Investments --- Investeringen. Investeringstheorie. Investeringskredieten. Investeringsprojecten. Investeringsquote--Japan --- Nationaal inkomen. Volksinkomen. Gezinsinkomen. Vermogensstratificatie. Particuliere inkomens en bestedingen. Armoede. Honger--Japan --- Beurswezen. Geldmarkt. Valutamarkt. Binnenlandse geldmarkt. Valutamarkt--Japan --- Economische situatie. Economische structuur van bepaalde landen en gebieden. Economische geografie. Economische produktie.economische produkten. Economische diensten--Japan --- -Econometrie van de financiële activa. Portfolio allocation en management. CAPM. Bubbles. --- Evolutie van het sparen. --- Spaarneiging. --- Sparen: algemeenheden. --- Structuur van het sparen. --- Economic conditions --- -Working papers --- 338 (520) Economische situatie. Economische structuur van bepaalde landen en gebieden. Economische geografie. Economische produktie.economische produkten. Economische diensten--Japan --- 336.76 (520) Beurswezen. Geldmarkt. Valutamarkt. Binnenlandse geldmarkt. Valutamarkt--Japan --- 330.56 <520> Nationaal inkomen. Volksinkomen. Gezinsinkomen. Vermogensstratificatie. Particuliere inkomens en bestedingen. Armoede. Honger--Japan --- 330.32 <520> Investeringen. Investeringstheorie. Investeringskredieten. Investeringsprojecten. Investeringsquote--Japan --- Nihon --- Nippon --- Iapōnia --- Zhāpān --- I︠A︡ponii︠a︡ --- Yapan --- Japon --- Japão --- Japam --- Mư̄ang Yīpun --- Prathēt Yīpun --- Yīpun --- Jih-pen --- Riben --- Government of Japan --- JP / Japan - Japon --- Econometrie van de financiële activa. Portfolio allocation en management. CAPM. Bubbles --- Sparen: algemeenheden --- Spaarneiging --- Structuur van het sparen --- Evolutie van het sparen --- Working papers --- Saving and investment - Japan. --- Stocks - Prices - Japan. --- Financial crises - Japan. --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Demography --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Property & real estate --- Finance --- Population & demography --- International economics --- Asset prices --- Land prices --- Foreign direct investment --- Consumer prices --- Balance of payments --- Housing --- Investments, Foreign --- Population aging --- Income

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