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Using a new fiscal dataset for small states, this paper analyzes the link between country size, government size, debt, and economic performance. It finds that on average small states have larger governments and higher public debt. Although there are intrinsic factors that explain why governments are bigger in small states, those with smaller governments and lower public debt tend to grow faster and are less vulnerable. Large fiscal adjustments, primarily through expenditure restraint, can underpin growth, although sometimes other elements can also impact. Since better governance is associated with lower debt, fiscal adjustment should be supported by governance improvements.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public debt --- External debt --- Expenditure --- Fiscal consolidation --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Expenditures, Public --- Fiscal policy --- Cabo Verde
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This paper studies the potential for the export sector to play a more important role in promoting growth in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) through deeper intra-regional and global trade integration. CAPDR countries have enacted many free trade agreements and other regional integration initiatives in recent years, but this paper finds that their exports remain below the norm for countries of their size. Several indexes of outward orientation are constructed and suggest that the breadth of geographic trading relationships, depth of integration into global production chains, and degree of technological sophistication of exports in CAPDR are less conducive to higher exports and growth than in fast-growing, export-oriented economies. To boost exports and growth, CAPDR should implement policies to facilitate economic integration, particularly building a customs union, harmonizing trade rules, improving logistics and infrastructure, and enhancing regional cordination.
Commerce --- Business & Economics --- International Commerce --- International trade. --- Economic development --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- External trade --- Foreign commerce --- Foreign trade --- Global commerce --- Global trade --- Trade, International --- World trade --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- International economic relations --- Non-traded goods --- Exports --- Central America --- Economic integration. --- E-books --- International trade --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Integration --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Trade: General --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Tariffs --- Customs unions --- Regional integration --- Service exports --- Taxes --- Economic integration --- Tariff --- Protectionism --- International economic integration --- United States
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Several Central American (CADR) countries with independent monetary policies are strengthening their monetary frameworks and some have implemented or are moving towards inflation targeting (IT) regimes. Strengthening the monetary policy frameworks of CADR is key to improving the effectiveness of monetary policy. The paper reviews the literature on the reforms needed for strengthening the monetary policy frameworks, and examines the experiences of IT countries, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay to help distill lessons for CADR. It also constructs an index to measure the relative strength of the monetary policy framework of CADR countries.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary policy frameworks --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Central bank autonomy --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Central banks --- Price stabilization --- Banks and banking --- Costa Rica
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Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Statistics --- Information Management --- Data Transmission Systems --- Exports and Imports --- Development Planning and Policy: Other --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- General Aggregative Models: General --- IT Management --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Knowledge management --- Finance --- Data capture & analysis --- Income --- National accounts --- Government finance statistics --- Economic and financial statistics --- External sector statistics --- Information and data management --- Technology --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- National income --- Economic statistics --- Information resources management --- Djibouti
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Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.
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Several Central American (CADR) central banks with independent monetary policies have adopted policy interest rates as their main instrument to signal their monetary policy stances, often in the context of adopting or transitioning to inflation targeting regimes. This paper finds that the interest-rate transmission mechanism, or the pass-through of the policy rate to market rates, is generally weaker and slower in CADR than in the LA6, the countries selected as benchmarks. A variety of potential factors behind this finding are examined, including the degrees of financial dollarization, exchange rate flexibility, bank concentration, financial sector development, and fiscal dominance. Through panel data analysis, the study suggests that the transmission mechanism can be strengthened by increasing exchange rate flexibility, and, over time, by adopting measures towards reducing financial dollarization, developing the financial sector, and reducing bank concentration.
Central America --- Economic conditions. --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Central bank policy rate --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Deposit rates --- Bank credit --- Financial services --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary policy --- Monetary policy frameworks --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Credit --- Costa Rica
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