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This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.

Finance, Public. --- Fiscal policy. --- Management --- Business & Economics --- Management Styles & Communication --- Labor --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Public finance & taxation --- Pensions --- Population & demography --- Fiscal risks --- Public debt --- Aging --- Pension spending --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Expenditure --- Macroeconomic risks --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public --- Population aging --- Bangladesh

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An intriguing look at how the utilization of material hermeneutics can augment the social and political scientist's capability to interpret social events beyond the traditional parameters that textual hermeneutic and linguistic models would generally present.

Political science. --- Political science --- Hermeneutics --- Information technology --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Political Science Study & Teaching --- IT (Information technology) --- Technology --- Telematics --- Information superhighway --- Knowledge management --- Interpretation, Methodology of --- Criticism --- Political philosophy --- Study and teaching --- Philosophy --- Political aspects

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We undertake an extended discussion of the latest developments about the existing and new estimation methods of the shadow economy. New results on the shadow economy for 158 countries all over the world are presented over 1991 to 2015. Strengths and weaknesses of these methods are assessed and a critical comparison and evaluation of the methods is carried out. The average size of the shadow economy of the 158 countries over 1991 to 2015 is 31.9 percent. The largest ones are Zimbabwe with 60.6 percent, and Bolivia with 62.3 percent of GDP. The lowest ones are Austria with 8.9 percent, and Switzerland with 7.2 percent. The new methods, especially the new macro method, Currency Demand Approach (CDA) and Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) in a structured hybrid-model based estimation procedure, are promising approaches from an econometric standpoint, alongside some new micro estimates. These estimations come quite close to others used by statistical offices or based on surveys.

Informal sector (Economics) --- Hidden economy --- Parallel economy --- Second economy --- Shadow economy --- Subterranean economy --- Underground economy --- Artisans --- Economics --- Small business --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Economics: General --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Other --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Labor Standards: Labor Force Composition --- Labor Economics: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary economics --- Informal economy --- National accounts --- Labor force participation --- Currencies --- Economic sectors --- Money --- Informal sector --- National income --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- Slovak Republic --- Income economics

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Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?.

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The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.

Primary commodities --- Prices --- Commodity exchanges --- Fiscal policy --- Econometric models. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Commodities exchange --- Commodity markets --- Exchanges, Commodity --- Exchanges, Produce --- Produce exchanges --- Futures market --- Commercial products --- Produce trade --- Speculation --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Basic commodities --- Commodities, Basic --- Commodities, Primary --- Primary products --- Government policy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Commodity Markets --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Public finance & taxation --- Commodity price shocks --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Expenditure --- Commodity price indexes --- Expenditures, Public --- Price indexes --- Chile