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This second edition presents the advances made in finance market analysis since 2005. The book provides a careful introduction to stochastic methods along with approximate ensembles for a single, historic time series. The new edition explains the history leading up to the biggest economic disaster of the 21st century. Empirical evidence for finance market instability under deregulation is given, together with a history of the explosion of the US Dollar worldwide. A model shows how bounds set by a central bank stabilized FX in the gold standard era, illustrating the effect of regulations. The book presents economic and finance theory thoroughly and critically, including rational expectations, cointegration and arch/garch methods, and replaces several of those misconceptions by empirically based ideas. This book will be of interest to finance theorists, traders, economists, physicists and engineers, and leads the reader to the frontier of research in time series analysis.
Statistical physics --- statistieken --- Finance --- Business mathematics. --- Markets --- Statistical physics. --- Mathematical models. --- Statistical methods. --- AA / International- internationaal --- 305.91 --- 305.970 --- 333.605 --- 331.062 --- -Finance --- -Business mathematics --- -Statistical physics --- 332.0151 --- Physics --- Mathematical statistics --- Public markets --- Commerce --- Fairs --- Market towns --- Arithmetic, Commercial --- Business --- Business arithmetic --- Business math --- Commercial arithmetic --- Mathematics --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question --- Econometrie van de financiële activa. Portfolio allocation en management. CAPM. Bubbles. --- Algemeenheden: Autoregression and moving average representation. ARIMA. ARMAX. Lagrange multiplier. Wald. Function (mis) specification. Autocorrelation. Homoscedasticity. Heteroscedasticity. ARCH. GARCH. Integration and co-integration. Unit roots. --- Nieuwe financiële instrumenten. --- Anticyclisch beleid. Rational expectations. --- Mathematical models --- Statistical methods --- Business mathematics --- Econometrie van de financiële activa. Portfolio allocation en management. CAPM. Bubbles --- Algemeenheden: Autoregression and moving average representation. ARIMA. ARMAX. Lagrange multiplier. Wald. Function (mis) specification. Autocorrelation. Homoscedasticity. Heteroscedasticity. ARCH. GARCH. Integration and co-integration. Unit roots --- Anticyclisch beleid. Rational expectations --- Nieuwe financiële instrumenten --- Marché financier --- General and Others --- Marché financier
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Standard texts and research in economics and finance ignore the absence of evidence from the analysis of real, unmassaged market data to support the notion of Adam Smith's stabilizing Invisible Hand. The neo-classical equilibrium model forms the theoretical basis for the positions of the US Treasury, the World Bank and the European Union, accepting it as their credo. It provides the theoretical underpinning for globalization, expecting to achieve the best of all possible worlds via the deregulation of all markets. In stark contrast, this text introduces a empirically based model of financial market dynamics that explains volatility, prices options correctly and clarifies the instability of financial markets. The emphasis is on understanding how real markets behave, not how they hypothetically 'should' behave. This text is written for physics graduate students and finance specialists, but will also serve as a valuable resource for those with a less mathematical background.
Finance --- Business mathematics --- Statistical physics --- Finances --- Mathématiques financières --- Physique statistique --- Mathematical models --- Statistical methods --- Modèles mathématiques --- Méthodes statistiques --- Business mathematics. --- Markets --- Statistical physics. --- Mathematical models. --- Statistical methods. --- AA / International- internationaal --- 305.91 --- 333.605 --- Econometrie van de financiële activa. Portfolio allocation en management. CAPM. Bubbles. --- Nieuwe financiële instrumenten. --- Mathématiques financières --- Modèles mathématiques --- Méthodes statistiques --- Physics --- Mathematical statistics --- Public markets --- Commerce --- Fairs --- Market towns --- Arithmetic, Commercial --- Business --- Business arithmetic --- Business math --- Commercial arithmetic --- Mathematics --- Econometrie van de financiële activa. Portfolio allocation en management. CAPM. Bubbles --- Nieuwe financiële instrumenten --- General and Others --- Econophysics. --- Economics
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Mechanics. --- Mécanique --- Mechanics --- Mécanique
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Deterministic chaos --- Algorithms --- Mappings (Mathematics) --- Fractals --- Mathematical physics --- Chaos in systems --- Chaotic behavior in systems --- Chaotic motion in systems --- Chaotisch gedrag in de systemen --- Comportement chaotique dans les systèmes --- Differentiable dynamical systems --- Differentieerbare dynamicasystemen --- Fractales --- Systèmes dynamiques différentiables --- Differential geometry. Global analysis --- Algorithmes --- Chaos déterministe --- Applications (Mathématiques) --- Physique mathématique --- Algorithms. --- Deterministic chaos. --- Fractals. --- Mappings (Mathematics). --- Mathematical physics. --- Chaos déterministe --- Applications (mathématiques) --- #TELE:MI2 --- Physical mathematics --- Physics --- Maps (Mathematics) --- Functions --- Functions, Continuous --- Topology --- Transformations (Mathematics) --- Fractal geometry --- Fractal sets --- Geometry, Fractal --- Sets, Fractal --- Sets of fractional dimension --- Dimension theory (Topology) --- Chaos, Deterministic --- Deterministic chaotic systems --- Determinism (Philosophy) --- Algorism --- Algebra --- Arithmetic --- Mathematics --- Foundations --- #TELE:SISTA --- Chaos déterministe. --- Algorithmes. --- Fractales. --- Chaos déterministe. --- Applications (mathématiques)
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Stochastic calculus provides a powerful description of a specific class of stochastic processes in physics and finance. However, many econophysicists struggle to understand it. This book presents the subject simply and systematically, giving graduate students and practitioners a better understanding and enabling them to apply the methods in practice. The book develops Ito calculus and Fokker-Planck equations as parallel approaches to stochastic processes, using those methods in a unified way. The focus is on nonstationary processes, and statistical ensembles are emphasized in time series analysis. Stochastic calculus is developed using general martingales. Scaling and fat tails are presented via diffusive models. Fractional Brownian motion is thoroughly analyzed and contrasted with Ito processes. The Chapman-Kolmogorov and Fokker-Planck equations are shown in theory and by example to be more general than a Markov process. The book also presents new ideas in financial economics and a critical survey of econometrics.
Stochastic processes. --- Differential equations. --- Statistical physics. --- Finance --- Mathematical models. --- Physics --- Mathematical statistics --- 517.91 Differential equations --- Differential equations --- Random processes --- Probabilities --- Statistical methods --- General and Others
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This book develops deterministic chaos and fractals from the standpoint of iterated maps, but the emphasis makes it very different from all other books in the field. It provides the reader with an introduction to more recent developments, such as weak universality, multifractals, and shadowing, as well as to older subjects like universal critical exponents, devil's staircases and the Farey tree. The author uses a fully discrete method, a 'theoretical computer arithmetic', because finite (but not fixed) precision cannot be avoided in computation or experiment. This leads to a more general formulation in terms of symbolic dynamics and to the idea of weak universality. The connection is made with Turing's ideas of computable numbers and it is explained why the continuum approach leads to predictions that are not necessarily realized in computation or in nature, whereas the discrete approach yields all possible histograms that can be observed or computed.
Deterministic chaos. --- Algorithms. --- Mappings (Mathematics) --- Fractals. --- Mathematical physics. --- Physical mathematics --- Physics --- Fractal geometry --- Fractal sets --- Geometry, Fractal --- Sets, Fractal --- Sets of fractional dimension --- Dimension theory (Topology) --- Maps (Mathematics) --- Functions --- Functions, Continuous --- Topology --- Transformations (Mathematics) --- Algorism --- Algebra --- Arithmetic --- Chaos, Deterministic --- Deterministic chaotic systems --- Chaotic behavior in systems --- Determinism (Philosophy) --- Mathematics --- Foundations --- Deterministic chaos --- Algorithms --- Fractals --- Mathematical physics
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This is an advanced 1997 text for first-year graduate students in physics and engineering taking a standard classical mechanics course. It was the first book to describe the subject in the context of the language and methods of modern nonlinear dynamics. The organising principle of the text is integrability vs. nonintegrability. Flows in phase space and transformations are introduced early and systematically and are applied throughout the text. The standard integrable problems of elementary physics are analysed from the standpoint of flows, transformations, and integrability. This approach then allows the author to introduce most of the interesting ideas of modern nonlinear dynamics via the most elementary nonintegrable problems of Newtonian mechanics. This text will be of value to physicists and engineers taking graduate courses in classical mechanics. It will also interest specialists in nonlinear dynamics, mathematicians, engineers and system theorists.
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