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This note provides an update of recent poverty and shared prosperity dynamics, and some of the underlying drivers, as well as introducing the new international poverty thresholds that are currently in use. The purpose of the update is to take advantage of the release of Household Budget Survey (HBS) data for the 2016 survey round. The previous poverty and shared prosperity update, release in 2017, updated poverty and shared prosperity trends up to 2015. The first section discusses the overall progress poverty reduction and shared prosperity up to 2016 - the latest available household budget survey data. Notably, the poverty dynamics are presented, for the first time, using PPP values based on the 2011 ICP exercise, and using the newly adopted Income Class poverty thresholds of USD 3.3/day and USD 5.5/day. For the purposes of this note, we focus on the USD 5.5/day threshold, but the section also presents a comparative analysis of poverty dynamics based on old and new thresholds. Because this is the first time when internationally-comparable poverty and shared prosperity statistics for Moldova are presented based on the ICP 2011 PPP conversion factors, and relying on newly defined income-group based thresholds, the introduction has a brief discussion of the reasons behind the change in the World Bank's poverty methodology used for global poverty monitoring, and the implications of this change for poverty trends over time and for the absolute levels of poverty reported in Moldova. Section 2 discussed the major drivers of shared prosperity during the 2011-2016 period. Section 3 examines the profile of poor and vulnerable populations, their asset endowments, and changes in this profile in recent years.
Dependency Ratio --- Household Consumption --- Inequality --- Living Standards --- Poverty Assessment --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Reduction
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Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.
Demographic dividend --- Demographics --- Emerging markets --- Health, nutrition and population --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Population aging --- Population policies --- Poverty reduction --- Private sector development --- Pro-poor growth --- Regional convergence --- Russian regions
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This paper finds that informal workers are more likely to have inferior work conditions, but do not necessarily report worse subjective well-being. Starting with lower wages, but also with less regularity of hours and paid vacation, informal workers have higher incidence of envelope payments than formal workers but not of hazardous or unstable jobs. After controlling for work conditions, informal workers do not have statistically significantly lower job satisfaction and under no specification are informal workers more likely to self-assess worse health than formal workers. Finally, there is some association between informal employment and household poverty and life satisfaction, but it is not robust to changes in econometric specification or sample composition. The authors conclude that the evidence indicates that informal employment in the Russian Federation is mostly a problem of labor productivity and the design of the social protection system, but worsening wages and some association between informality and household poverty indicate that informality may also be a social equity problem.
Employment and Unemployment --- Inequality --- Informal Employment --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Productivity --- Life Satisfaction --- Pensions --- Pensions and Retirement Systems --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Equity --- Social Protection --- Social Protections and Assistance --- Social Protections and Labor --- Wellbeing
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The purpose of this paper is to introduce applications of RUSMOD - a microsimulation model for fiscal incidence analysis in the Russian Federation. RUSMOD combines household survey micro-data and fiscal policy rules to simulate the Russian tax-benefit system: the size and distribution of taxes collected and benefits paid, and the impact of the system on different population groups. Microsimulation models, such as RUSMOD, are habitually used in developed countries, and can be versatile budgetary policy tools. Using this model, the current tax-benefit system in Russia is examined. The impact of the system is measured across the income distribution, age groups, family types, localities, as well as across time. One of the applications of RUSMOD this paper aims to assess is the role of the tax-benefit system in explaining the incidence of informal employment in Russia. The paper investigates whether the existing system creates disincentives for formalization in terms of reducing disposable incomes and increasing poverty and inequality, and whether a hypothetical tax reform would be able to reduce the opportunity costs of formalization for informal workers, improve distributional outcomes, and increase fiscal revenues.
Budget Policy --- Fiscal Incidence --- Fiscal Policy --- Income Distribution --- Inequality --- Informal Economy --- Informal Employment --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microsimulation --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Sector Development --- Public Spending --- Social Protections and Assistance --- Tax Reform --- Tax-Benefit Policy --- Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies
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This paper uses methods developed by the Commitment to Equity Institute and data from the Household Budget Survey to assess the effects of government taxation and social spending on poverty and inequality in Moldova. The paper presents the first detailed distributional analysis of the tax and expenditure sides of the fiscal system, examining in particular the contribution of different taxes and transfers to poverty and inequality reduction in Moldova, as well as the cost-effectiveness of different taxes and transfers in achieving these poverty and inequality reduction goals. The analysis finds that the tax-benefit system in Moldova is quite pro-poor and has a significant effect on poverty and inequality, with the poverty reduction effect being stronger for lower poverty thresholds. Pensions provide much of the poverty-reducing effect, which is not surprising, given that in an aging society like Moldova, pensions are the main income source for many households. Direct transfers are also quite effective in reducing poverty and are also efficient, providing a relatively high degree of poverty reduction per dollar allocated to these programs, but their overall effect on poverty is muted by their small budgetary allocations.
Fiscal Incidence --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal Trends --- Income Inequality --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Sector Development --- Social Assistance --- Social Protections and Assistance --- Social Spending --- Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies
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Despite the well-known positive effects of tobacco taxes on health outcomes, policy makers avoid relying on such taxes because of their possible regressive impact. Using an extended cost-benefit analysis to estimate the distributional effect of cigarettes in the Russian Federation, this paper finds that the long-run impact may in fact be progressive. The methodology applied incorporates the negative price effect caused by an increase in tobacco taxes, combined with a presumed future reduction in medical expenditures and a rise in working years caused by a reduction in the rate of smoking among the population. The analysis includes estimates of the distributional impacts of price rises on cigarettes under various scenarios, based on information taken from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey-Higher School of Economics for 2010-16. One contribution is the quantification of impacts by allowing price elasticities to vary across consumption deciles. Overall, cigarette taxes exert a positive long-term effect on household incomes, although the magnitude depends on the structure of the conditional price elasticity. If the population is more responsive to tobacco price changes, then it would experience greater gains from the health and extended work-life benefits.
Cancer --- Cholera --- Communicable diseases --- Disease control and prevention --- Health care services industry --- Health, nutrition and population --- Industry --- Leprosy --- Price elasticity --- Public health promotion --- Smoking --- Tobacco control --- Tobacco price --- Tobacco tax --- Tobacco use and control --- Tuberculosis
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The results in this report for the Russian Federation support the use of tobacco taxation as an effective means to reduce tobacco consumption, raise government revenues, increase public health and promote income equality.
Cancer --- Disease control and prevention --- Health, nutrition and population --- Mortality --- Poverty reduction --- Price elasticity --- Public health promotion --- Tobacco use and control
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Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.
Demographic dividend --- Demographics --- Emerging markets --- Health, nutrition and population --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Population aging --- Population policies --- Poverty reduction --- Private sector development --- Pro-poor growth --- Regional convergence --- Russian regions
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Using household data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, this paper assesses how aging affects saving. To overcome a systematic bias against the life-cycle hypothesis of survey data, the paper estimates how the age profile of saving changes when the micro data are corrected to account for the contribution to pensions (as additional saving) and receipt of benefits from pensions (as dissaving). With these corrections, the Russian data support the life-cycle hypothesis. A small decline in the aggregate saving rate, because of aging, can thus be expected. However, since aggregate saving rates result from a combination of age and cohort effects, this decline may not be significant. When extrapolating the rising trends of the cohort effect, the fact that younger generations are earning and saving more than older generation at the same age, the projection shows a growing aggregate saving rate. The changes in saving of future cohorts, for example because of changes in the growth rate of the economy, can affect the aggregate saving rate even more than aging.
Banks and banking reform --- Debt markets --- Economic theory & research --- Education --- Emerging markets --- Finance and financial sector development --- Households saving --- Life-cycle model --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Panel data --- Pensions --- Private sector development --- Science education
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The paper employs the Commitment to Equity framework to present a first attempt at a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis for Ukraine, encompassing the revenue and expenditures components of the fiscal system, including direct and indirect taxes, as well as direct, indirect, and in-kind transfers. The fiscal system in Ukraine has high redistribution effects, decreasing the Gini inequality index by 21 percentage points, and the official measure of poverty incidence by 27.6 percentage points (considering all fiscal interventions including in-kind transfers). As in many other countries in the region, pensions are the main contributor to the redistribution effect of fiscal policy. However, Ukraine stands out due to the relatively high equalizing effect of direct transfers. Fiscal policy in Ukraine is pro-poor, with the lowest income decile benefiting the most. Overall, 60 percent of the population of Ukraine are net recipients from the fiscal system, the main categories of recipients being households with two or more children, single-parent households, and retirees.
Developing Countries --- Economic Adjustment and Lending --- Education --- Educational Sciences --- Fiscal Incidence --- Health Care Services Industry --- Inequality --- Pensions --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Redistribution --- Social Protections and Assistance --- Social Protections and Labor --- Social Spending
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