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We present a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters. In addition to permanent damages to public and private capital, the disaster causes temporary losses of productivity, inefficiencies during the reconstruction process, and damages to the sovereign's creditworthiness. We use the model to study the debt sustainability concerns that arise from the need to rebuild public infrastructure over the medium term and analyze the feasibility of ex ante policies, such as building adaptation infrastructure and fiscal buffers, and contrast these policies with the post-disaster support provided by donors. Investing in resilient infrastructure may prove useful, in particular if it is viewed as complementary to standard infrastructure, because it raises the marginal product of private capital, crowding in private investment, while helping withstand the impact of the natural disaster. In an application to Vanuatu, we find that donors should provide an additional 50% of pre-cyclone GDP in grants to be spent over the following 15 years to ensure public debt remains sustainable following Cyclone Pam. Helping the government build resilience on the other hand, reduces the risk of debt distress and at lower cost for donors.

Emergency management. --- Natural disasters. --- Natural calamities --- Disasters --- Consequence management (Emergency management) --- Disaster planning --- Disaster preparedness --- Disaster prevention --- Disaster relief --- Emergencies --- Emergency management --- Emergency planning --- Emergency preparedness --- Management --- Public safety --- First responders --- Planning --- Preparedness --- Prevention --- Banks and Banking --- Infrastructure --- Public Finance --- Natural Disasters --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Fiscal Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Foreign Aid --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics --- Natural disasters --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Real interest rates --- Public investment spending --- National accounts --- Environment --- Expenditure --- Financial services --- Saving and investment --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Interest rates --- Public investments --- Vanuatu

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We use a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of alternative public investment scaling-up scenarios, analyzing how improving the efficiency of capital spending and of tax revenue collection affect growth and debt sustainability for three fast-growing Southeast Asian economies: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. We show that a gradual public investment profile is more favorable than front-loading capital spending because we assume governments are able to gradually learn how to invest more efficiently, accelerating public capital accumulation and therefore growth. We discuss the pros and cons of alternative financing options and identify the financing mix that generates the best macroeconomic outcome. Sometimes overlooked, improving the efficiency of revenue collection over time may ease the burden of fiscal adjustment, achieving higher GDP growth with substantially lower debt-to-GDP ratios, and will help policymakers efficiently meet the challenge of addressing large infrastructure gaps while maintaining debt sustainability.

Economic development --- Debts, Public --- Public investments --- Government investments --- Investments, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments --- Capital budget --- Economic development projects --- Investment of public funds --- Finance --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Fiscal Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development --- Public finance & taxation --- Public investment spending --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Public debt --- Revenue administration --- Tax collection --- Expenditure --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Revenue --- Tax administration and procedure --- Sri Lanka

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For the world's 20 largest emitters, we use a simple trend/cycle decomposition to provide evidence of decoupling between greenhouse gas emissions and output in richer nations, particularly in European countries, but not yet in emerging markets. If consumption-based emissions—measures that account for countries' net emissions embodied in cross-border trade—are used, the evidence for decoupling in the richer economies gets weaker. Countries with underlying policy frameworks more supportive of renewable energy and climate change mitigation efforts tend to show greater decoupling between trend emissions and trend GDP, and for both production- and consumption-based emissions. The relationship between trend emissions and trend GDP has also become much weaker in the last two decades than in preceding decades.

Finance: General --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Environmental Policy --- Environment and Growth --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environment and Development --- Environment and Trade --- Sustainability --- Environmental Accounts and Accounting --- Environmental Equity --- Population Growth --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Climate change --- Finance --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Environmental policy --- Climate policy --- Environment --- Financial markets --- Greenhouse gases --- Financial services industry --- Climatic changes --- Germany

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The 20th century beheld a dramatic transformation of the family. Some Kuznets style facts regarding structural change in the family are presented. Over the course of the 20th century in the United States fertility declined, educational attainment waxed, housework fell, leisure increased, jobs shifted from blue to white collar, and marriage waned. These trends are also observed in the cross-country data. A model is developed, and then calibrated, to address the trends in the US data. The calibration procedure is closely connected to the underlying economic logic. Three drivers of the great transition are considered: neutral technological progress, skill-biased technological change, and drops in the price of labor-saving household durables.