Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social sciences. He recommends that researchers first ask what can be learned from data alone, and then ask what can be learned when data are combined with credible weak assumptions. Inferences predicated on weak assumptions, he argues, can achieve wide consensus, while ones that require strong assumptions almost inevitably are subject to sharp disagreements.Building on the foundation laid in the author's "Identification Problems in the Social Sciences" (Harvard, 1995), the book's fifteen chapters are organized in three parts. Part I studies prediction with missing or otherwise incomplete data. Part II concerns the analysis of treatment response, which aims to predict outcomes when alternative treatment rules are applied to a population. Part III studies prediction of choice behaviour.Each chapter juxtaposes developments of methodology with empirical or numerical illustrations. The book employs a simple notation and mathematical apparatus, using only basic elements of probability theory.

Quantitative methods in social research --- Quantitative methods (economics) --- Forecasting --- Social prediction --- Decision Making --- Methodology --- Decision making --- Forecasting - Methodology

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Quantitative methods in social research --- Estimation [Theorie de l' ] --- Estimation theory --- Schattingstheorie --- Social sciences --- Sciences sociales --- Statistical methods --- Research --- Méthodes statistiques --- Recherche --- 3.001.5 --- -#SBIB:014.IO --- #SBIB:303H510 --- #SBIB:303H12 --- maatschappijwetenschappen, methoden --- -Estimation theory --- 300 --- Behavioral sciences --- Human sciences --- Sciences, Social --- Social science --- Social studies --- Civilization --- Estimating techniques --- Least squares --- Mathematical statistics --- Stochastic processes --- Sociaalwetenschappelijk onderzoek. Research sociale wetenschappen --- Methoden sociale wetenschappen: statistische technieken, algemeen --- Methoden en technieken: sociale wetenschappen --- Estimation theory. --- Statistical methods. --- 3.001.5 Sociaalwetenschappelijk onderzoek. Research sociale wetenschappen --- Méthodes statistiques --- #SBIB:014.IO --- Social sciences - Statistical methods --- Social sciences-statistical methods

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Public policy advocates routinely assert that "research has shown" a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research. Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude.

Policy sciences. --- Public administration. --- Decision making. --- Political planning --- Politics and Government. --- Policy sciences --- Public administration --- Decision making --- Social Sciences --- Social Sciences - General --- Evaluation. --- Evaluation --- Planning in politics --- Public policy --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management --- Management decisions --- Administration, Public --- Delivery of government services --- Government services, Delivery of --- Public management --- Public sector management --- Policy-making --- Policymaking --- Public policy management --- Planning --- Politics, Practical --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Political science --- Administrative law --- Decentralization in government --- Local government --- Public officers --- E-books --- Overheidsbeleid --- 519.816 --- 519.816 Theory of decision-making --- Theory of decision-making --- Science --- Sociology of knowledge

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)