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Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries : A Welfare-Based Assessment
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ISBN: 1451917023 1282843400 9786612843402 1451872739 1451992319 1462346693 Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The paper presents numerical simulations of various fiscal rules for oil-producing countries. Welfare implications are sensitive to the choice of the social welfare function, initial conditions, and non-oil growth prospects. The distribution of non-oil wealth is important for countries with relatively low oil reserves. Corrections for adjustment costs and uncertainty with respect to oil prices should be applied carefully. While avoiding sharp changes in the fiscal policy stance may be appealing, it is not necessarily optimal if the initial position is unsustainable. Ad hoc rules are shown to perform poorly. The analysis abstracts from several issues critical for developing a practical policy advice and should not be treated as a complete framework.


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Modeling Inflation in Georgia
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ISBN: 1462388000 1452772231 1282541307 1451919506 9786613821980 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper explains the behavior of inflation in Georgia in the post-stabilization period. A long-run equation linking prices to money and the exchange rate, as well as a short-run, dynamic equation for inflation are estimated. The inflation equation is stable, points to a dominant role of the exchange rate in the behavior of inflation and shows a low persistence of inflation in Georgia. The equation explains well the behavior of inflation after the Russian crises, when inflation increased sharply but was quickly brought under control, as the National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy tight and the exchange rate stable.


Book
Vietnam : Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap
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ISBN: 1462367844 1455228354 1282846213 9786612846212 1455201324 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.


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China’s Growth : Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?
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ISBN: 1513516213 1513524356 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the ‘finance-neutral’ gap—our measure of the financial cycle—is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the “Asia Tigers” and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.


Book
China's Growth
Authors: ---
Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the 'finance-neutral' gap-our measure of the financial cycle-is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow


Book
Financial Distortions in China : A General Equilibrium Approach
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1513589091 1513503898 1513582798 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Widespread implicit guarantees and interest ceilings were major distortions in China’s financial system, contributing to a misallocation of resources. We analyze the impact of removing such frictions in a general equilibrium setting. The results show that comprehensive reforms generate better outcomes than partial ones: removing the deposit rate ceiling alone increases output, but the efficiency of capital allocation does not improve. Removing implicit guarantees improves output through lower cost of capital for private companies and better resource allocation.


Book
Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy
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ISBN: 1475554478 1475554435 Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.


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Understanding Residential Real Estate in China
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1484337271 1484337255 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.


Book
Resolving China’s Corporate Debt Problem
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1475545282 147554538X 9781475545289 9781475545388 1475545290 Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain.


Book
Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1462313469 1451999437 128351527X 9786613827722 1451910290 Year: 2007 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Public debt in the Middle East increased during the mid-1990s mainly because of fiscal expansions. It decreased in recent years, thanks to high oil revenue, economic growth, some primary non-oil fiscal adjustment, and debt relief. While countries in the Middle East appear to have adequately reacted to high indebtedness in the past, public debt levels remain uncomfortably high in many, particularly non-oil producing countries and middle income oil producers. Non-oil countries adjust mainly by increasing revenues, whereas oil countries adjust expenditure. For non-oil producing countries, substantial fiscal adjustment would be needed to bring debt down to below 50 percent of GDP. Oil producers as a group appear to follow sustainable, though procyclical, fiscal policies. Middle-income (but not high-income) oil producing countries would need to adjust somewhat to bring their policies in line with the permanent oil income benchmark.

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