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The selected papers in this volume were prepared under the research project on “EU Eastern Neighborhood: Economic Potential and Future Development (ENEPO)” funded by the EU Sixth Framework Program. They discuss the broad spectrum of development issues in the EU Eastern Neighborhood and economic relations between the enlarged EU and its Eastern neighbors in the former USSR. Individual chapters address areas of economic and social development, trade, energy, investment, migration, costs and benefits of economic reforms, development assistance and political economy of policy reforms. In particular, they examine interrelations and mutual synergies between trade liberalization, inflow of foreign investment, economic and institutional reforms and a reduction of income and development disparities. The publication thus closes an important knowledge gap in respect to the economic, social and institutional development of the CIS region and its economic relations with the EU.
Economic development -- European Union countries -- International cooperation. --- Economic development -- Former Soviet republics -- International cooperation. --- Economic policy. --- Economics -- European Union countries. --- Economics -- Former Soviet republics. --- Economics --- Economic development --- Economic policy --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Economic History --- International cooperation --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- International economics. --- European Economic Community literature. --- Development economics. --- Economics. --- Emigration and immigration. --- European Integration. --- Economic Policy. --- Economic Systems. --- Development Economics. --- International Economics. --- Migration. --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- European Economic Community lite. --- Political Economy/Economic Systems. --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Immigration --- International migration --- Migration, International --- Population geography --- Assimilation (Sociology) --- Colonization
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Migration. Refugees --- Economic order --- Economic policy and planning (general) --- Economic conditions. Economic development --- Foreign trade. International trade --- Developing countries: economic development problems --- economische politiek --- ontwikkelingssamenwerking --- economische systemen --- migratie (mensen) --- wereldeconomie --- internationale economie --- Europese eenmaking --- Europe
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The selected papers in this volume were prepared under the research project on EU Eastern Neighborhood: Economic Potential and Future Development (ENEPO) funded by the EU Sixth Framework Program. They discuss the broad spectrum of development issues in the EU Eastern Neighborhood and economic relations between the enlarged EU and its Eastern neighbors in the former USSR. Individual chapters address areas of economic and social development, trade, energy, investment, migration, costs and benefits of economic reforms, development assistance and political economy of policy reforms. In particular, they examine interrelations and mutual synergies between trade liberalization, inflow of foreign investment, economic and institutional reforms and a reduction of income and development disparities. The publication thus closes an important knowledge gap in respect to the economic, social and institutional development of the CIS region and its economic relations with the EU.
Migration. Refugees --- Economic order --- Economic policy and planning (general) --- Economic conditions. Economic development --- Foreign trade. International trade --- Developing countries: economic development problems --- economische politiek --- ontwikkelingssamenwerking --- economische systemen --- migratie (mensen) --- wereldeconomie --- internationale economie --- Europese eenmaking --- Europe --- Economic development --- Développement économique --- EPUB-LIV-FT LIVECONO LIVGESTI SPRINGER-B
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China's Belt and Road Initiative aims to improve connectivity between China and more than 70 countries through infrastructure investment and regional cooperation. The initiative has the potential to accelerate significantly the rate of economic integration and development in the region, as trade costs decline. The goals of this paper are to (i) study the impacts of infrastructure improvements on Belt and Road Initiative and non-Belt and Road Initiative countries' trade flows, growth, and poverty; and (ii) suggest policies that would help maximize gains from the Belt and Road Initiative-induced trade cost declines. The analysis captures the trade costs reductions as a result of infrastructure improvements. The findings indicate that the Belt and Road Initiative would be largely beneficial. First, global income increases by 0.7 percent (in 2030 relative to the baseline). This translates into almost half a trillion dollars in 2014 prices and market exchange rates. The Belt and Road Initiative area captures 82 percent of the gain, with the largest percent gains in East Asia. Second, globally, the Belt and Road Initiative could contribute to lifting 8.7 million people from extreme poverty and 34 million from moderate poverty. Third, the initiative would lead to a modest increase in global carbon dioxide emissions, with a complex set of positive and negative outcomes at the national level for other types of emissions.
Belt And Road Initiative --- Computable General Equilibrium --- Emissions --- Environment And Trade --- Infrastructure --- Infrastructure Economics and Finance --- Poverty --- Transport
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In many developing countries, the supply of skilled workers is likely to continue to be stronger than demand, and this should drive down the skill premium and reduce inequality. Within the limitations of any exercise based on simulations, this paper finds that the recently observed reduction in inequality in Latin America may continue. Building on counterfactual scenarios projecting economic and demographic (including age and education) growth, the paper also highlights that by 2030 the long-awaited rise of the middle class in Latin America will be in full swing, as its share will be 43 percent of the total population, twice the value in 2005. This achievement is not guaranteed, as countries with large initial inequalities will have to achieve very high rates of inclusive growth. At the same time, a larger middle class is likely to exert a stronger influence on international and domestic policy making.
Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Middle Class --- Population Policies --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Skill Premium
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A macro-micro simulation framework that links a computable general equilibrium model with the survey-based global income distribution dynamics model can be used to assess the economic and distributional effects of macroeconomic shocks and policies. The methodology is used to assess the economic and subnational labor market impacts of a series of stylized trade policy options for the Sri Lankan economy over a 10-year time period. The analysis focuses on the impact of unilateral para-tariff liberalization, free-trade agreements with China or India, and a full-reform scenario. The simulation results show that more ambitious trade reform can result in larger gains in gross domestic product, poverty reduction, and exports, particularly in sectors employing a higher proportion of women. In the absence of additional policies, growth is not equally distributed. In all the scenarios in which the Sri Lankan economy grows, the distribution of gains is regressive. Increasing labor demand for skilled workers translates into a larger skilled wage premium - by as much as 1.1 percent with respect to the baseline. Implementation of full trade reform accelerates the concentration of economic activity in the western regions of Colombo, Gampaha, and Kalutara. Net employment gains in the western regions would increase from 111,000 to 136,000 in the full reform scenario by 2028 and with respect to baseline conditions.
CGE Model --- Distributional Impact --- Foreign Trade Promotion and Regulation --- International Economics and Trade --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Open Economy --- Poverty and Trade --- Poverty Measurement --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Trade Agreements --- Trade Policy --- Trade Reform
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This paper assesses and compares the economic impacts of four actual and potential free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region: the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the original Trans Pacific Partnership, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific. Free trade areas with a larger scale and wider membership are expected to produce higher aggregate gains in increased gross domestic product and trade flows. U.S. withdrawal from the original Trans-Pacific Partnership reduced estimated gross domestic product gains for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership countries by about half. For countries belonging to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and also negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the potential gains from an agreement with China and the Republic of Korea are substantial, but not as large as if the United States were to rejoin the original Trans-Pacific Partnership. On a sectoral basis, significant structural shifts are observed for food processing, wearing apparel, textiles, and transport equipment.
Asia-Pacific Trade --- CPTPP --- FTA --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- RCEP --- Regional Trade --- TPP --- Trade Agreement --- Trade And Investment --- Trade and Regional Integration --- Trade Policy --- Trans-Pacific Partnership
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Business networks. --- COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020 --- -Economic aspects. --- -Economics. --- International economic integration.
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The virus that triggered a localized shock in China is now delivering a significant global shock. This study simulates the potential impact of COVID-19 on gross domestic product and trade, using a standard global computable general equilibrium model. It models the shock as underutilization of labor and capital, an increase in international trade costs, a drop in travel services, and a redirection of demand away from activities that require proximity between people. A baseline global pandemic scenario sees gross domestic product fall by 2 percent below the benchmark for the world, 2.5 percent for developing countries, and 1.8 percent for industrial countries. The declines are nearly 4 percent below the benchmark for the world, in an amplified pandemic scenario in which containment is assumed to take longer and which now seems more likely. The biggest negative shock is recorded in the output of domestic services affected by the pandemic, as well as in traded tourist services. Since the model does not capture fully the social isolation induced independent contraction in demand and the decline in investor confidence, the eventual economic impact may be different. This exercise is illustrative, because it is still too early to make an informed assessment of the full impact of the pandemic. But it does convey the likely extent of impending global economic pain, especially for developing countries and their potential need for assistance.
COVID-19 (Disease) --- Gross domestic product. --- International trade. --- Economic aspects.
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This paper explores the economic impacts of two related tracks of China's expected transformation-economic slowdown and rebalancing away from investment toward consumption-and estimates the spillovers for the rest of the world, with a special focus on Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper finds that an average annual slowdown of gross domestic product in China of 1 percent over 2016-30 is expected to result in a decline of gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.1 percent and globally by 0.6 percent relative to the past trends scenario by 2030. However, if China's transformation also entails substantial rebalancing, the negative income effects of the economic slowdown could be offset by the positive changes brought along by rebalancing through higher overall imports by China and positive terms of trade effects for its trading partners. If global supply responds positively to the shifts in relative prices and the new sources of consumer demand from China, a substantial rebalancing in China could have an overall favorable impact on the global economy. Economic growth could turn positive and higher on average, by 6 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and 5.5 percent globally, as compared with the past trends scenario. Finally, rebalancing reduces the prevalence of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with the isolated negative effects of China's slowdown, which slightly increase the incidence of poverty. Overall, China's slowdown and rebalancing combined are estimated to increase gross domestic product in Sub-Saharan Africa by 4.7 percent by 2030 and reduce poverty, but the extent of this varies by country.
CGE --- Climate Change Economics --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microsimulations --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Shared Prosperity --- Trade
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