Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We explore monetary policy transmission by estimating VAR impulse response functions to illustrate the Belarusian economy's response to unexpected changes in policy and exogenous variables. We find a significant exchange rate pass-through to prices, and interest rate policy following, rather than leading, financial market developments. Our estimated monetary policy reaction function shows the central bank striking a balance between real exchange rate stability and containing inflation. We discuss dollarization, administrative interventions, and other features complicating monetary policy transmission, review specific constraints and vulnerabilities, and conclude with observations on possible measures that could raise the effectiveness of monetary policy in Belarus.

Electronic books. -- local. --- Monetary policy -- Belarus -- Mathematical models. --- Money supply -- Belarus -- Mathematical models. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Monetary policy --- Money supply --- Mathematical models. --- Money stock --- Quantity of money --- Supply of money --- Monetary management --- Demand for money --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Dollarization --- Currencies --- Prices --- Belarus, Republic of

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We propose a toolkit for the assessment of systemic risk buildup in low income countries. We show that, due to non-linearity in the relationship between credit and financial stability, the assessment should be conducted with different tools at different stages of financial development. In particular, when the level of financial depth is low, traditional leading indicators of banking crises have poor predictive performance and the analysis should be based on indicators that account for financial deepening while taking into consideration countries’ structural limits. By using this framework, we provide a preliminary assessment of systemic risk buildup in individual SSA countries.

Financial crises --- Financial risk management --- Risk management --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Crises --- Financial Forecasting and Simulation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Economic sectors --- Credit --- Money --- Financial sector development --- Financial markets --- Systemic risk --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Credit booms --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Nigeria

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline.

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Financial repression (legal restrictions on interest rates, credit allocation, capital movements, and other financial operations) was widely used in the past but was largely abandoned in the liberalization wave of the 1990s, as widespread support for interventionist policies gave way to a renewed conception of government as an impartial referee. Financial repression has come back on the agenda with the surge in public debt in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, and some countries have reintroduced administrative ceilings on interest rates. By distorting market incentives and signals, financial repression induces losses from inefficiency and rent-seeking that are not easily quantified. This study attempts to assess some of these losses by estimating the impact of financial repression on growth using an updated index of interest rate controls covering 90 countries over 45 years. The results suggest that financial repression poses a significant drag on growth, which could amount to 0.4-0.7 percentage points.

Financial crises. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Crises --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Finance --- Interest rate policy --- Financial crises --- Credit --- Loans --- Monetary policy --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Interest rate corridor --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Bolivia

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Stress testing has become the risk management tool du jour in the wake of the global financial crisis. In countries where the information reported by financial institutions is considered to be of sufficiently good quality, and supervisory and regulatory standards are high, stress tests can be of significant value. In contrast, the proliferation of stress testing in underdeveloped financial systems with weak oversight regimes is fraught with uncertainties, as it is unclear what the results actually represent and how they could be usefully applied. In this paper, problems associated with stress tests using weak data are examined. We offer a potentially more useful alternative, the "breaking point" method, which also requires close coordination with on-site supervision and complemented by other supervisory tools and qualitative information. Excel spreadsheet templates of the stress tests presented in this paper are provided.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Finance --- Banking --- Financial services law & regulation --- Loans --- Nonperforming loans --- Stress testing --- Loan classification --- Financial risk management --- Banks and banking --- State supervision