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We explore monetary policy transmission by estimating VAR impulse response functions to illustrate the Belarusian economy's response to unexpected changes in policy and exogenous variables. We find a significant exchange rate pass-through to prices, and interest rate policy following, rather than leading, financial market developments. Our estimated monetary policy reaction function shows the central bank striking a balance between real exchange rate stability and containing inflation. We discuss dollarization, administrative interventions, and other features complicating monetary policy transmission, review specific constraints and vulnerabilities, and conclude with observations on possible measures that could raise the effectiveness of monetary policy in Belarus.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Monetary policy -- Belarus -- Mathematical models. --- Money supply -- Belarus -- Mathematical models. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Monetary policy --- Money supply --- Mathematical models. --- Money stock --- Quantity of money --- Supply of money --- Monetary management --- Demand for money --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Dollarization --- Currencies --- Prices --- Belarus, Republic of
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We propose a toolkit for the assessment of systemic risk buildup in low income countries. We show that, due to non-linearity in the relationship between credit and financial stability, the assessment should be conducted with different tools at different stages of financial development. In particular, when the level of financial depth is low, traditional leading indicators of banking crises have poor predictive performance and the analysis should be based on indicators that account for financial deepening while taking into consideration countries’ structural limits. By using this framework, we provide a preliminary assessment of systemic risk buildup in individual SSA countries.
Financial crises --- Financial risk management --- Risk management --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- International Economics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Informal Economy --- Underground Econom --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Crises --- Financial Forecasting and Simulation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Economic sectors --- Credit --- Money --- Financial sector development --- Financial markets --- Systemic risk --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Credit booms --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Nigeria
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Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Natural Disasters --- Taxation --- Environmental Economics: General --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Climate change --- Natural disasters --- Public finance & taxation --- Environment --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Income --- National accounts --- Carbon tax --- Taxes --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Climatic changes --- Greenhouse gases --- Environmental impact charges
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Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Natural Disasters --- Taxation --- Environmental Economics: General --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Climate change --- Natural disasters --- Public finance & taxation --- Environment --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Income --- National accounts --- Carbon tax --- Taxes --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Climatic changes --- Greenhouse gases --- Environmental impact charges
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Since the early 1990s, the IMF has been advising countries to shift to the use of indirect instruments for executing monetary policy. This paper provides information about a monetary policy instruments database, maintained by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the IMF. We offer an overview of the information contained in the database in the form of comparative summary tables and graphs to illustrate the use of monetary policy instruments by groups of countries (developing, emerging market and developed countries). The main trend that can be identified from the database information is the increasing reliance on money market operations for monetary policy implementation. We emphasize the relevance and usefulness of the data collected through periodic surveys of central banks, for general descriptive and analytical purposes.
Banks and banking, Central. --- Monetary policy -- Developing countries. --- Monetary policy. --- Monetary policy --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Banks and Banking --- Investments: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Investment & securities --- Monetary policy instruments --- Reserve requirements --- Standing facilities --- Government securities --- Banks and banking --- New Zealand
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Dollarization—the use of foreign currencies as a medium of exchange, store of value, or unit of account—is a notable feature of financial development under macroeconomically fragile conditions. It has emerged as a key factor explaining vulnerabilities and currency crises, which have long been observed in Latin America, parts of Asia, and Eastern Europe. Dollarization is also present, prominently, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where it remains significant and persistent at over 30 percent rates for both bank loans and deposits—although it has not increased significantly since 2001. However, progress in reducing dollarization has lagged behind other regions and, in this regard, it is legitimate to ask whether this phenomenon is an important concern in SSA. This study fills a gap in the literature by analyzing these issues with specific reference to the SSA region on the basis of the evidence for the past decade.
Dollarization --- Foreign exchange --- Cambistry --- Currency exchange --- Exchange, Foreign --- Foreign currency --- Foreign exchange problem --- Foreign money --- Forex --- FX (Finance) --- International exchange --- International finance --- Currency crises --- Monetary policy --- Africa, Sub-Saharan --- Economic policy. --- E-books --- FINANCE --- BUSINESS & ECONOMICS --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Currency --- Currencies --- Bank deposits --- De-dollarization --- Money --- Financial services --- Banks and banking --- Congo, Democratic Republic of the
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Financial repression (legal restrictions on interest rates, credit allocation, capital movements, and other financial operations) was widely used in the past but was largely abandoned in the liberalization wave of the 1990s, as widespread support for interventionist policies gave way to a renewed conception of government as an impartial referee. Financial repression has come back on the agenda with the surge in public debt in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, and some countries have reintroduced administrative ceilings on interest rates. By distorting market incentives and signals, financial repression induces losses from inefficiency and rent-seeking that are not easily quantified. This study attempts to assess some of these losses by estimating the impact of financial repression on growth using an updated index of interest rate controls covering 90 countries over 45 years. The results suggest that financial repression poses a significant drag on growth, which could amount to 0.4-0.7 percentage points.
Financial crises. --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Crises --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Finance --- Interest rate policy --- Financial crises --- Credit --- Loans --- Monetary policy --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Interest rate corridor --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Bolivia
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Stress testing has become the risk management tool du jour in the wake of the global financial crisis. In countries where the information reported by financial institutions is considered to be of sufficiently good quality, and supervisory and regulatory standards are high, stress tests can be of significant value. In contrast, the proliferation of stress testing in underdeveloped financial systems with weak oversight regimes is fraught with uncertainties, as it is unclear what the results actually represent and how they could be usefully applied. In this paper, problems associated with stress tests using weak data are examined. We offer a potentially more useful alternative, the "breaking point" method, which also requires close coordination with on-site supervision and complemented by other supervisory tools and qualitative information. Excel spreadsheet templates of the stress tests presented in this paper are provided.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Finance --- Banking --- Financial services law & regulation --- Loans --- Nonperforming loans --- Stress testing --- Loan classification --- Financial risk management --- Banks and banking --- State supervision --- International finance. --- Financial risk management.
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This paper presents an integrated framework for assessing systemic risk. The framework models banks’ capital asset ratios as a function of future losses and credit growth using a generalized method of moments to calibrate shocks to credit quality and credit growth. The analysis is complemented by a simple measure of systemic risk, which captures tail risk comovement among banks in the system. The main contribution of this paper is to advance a simple framework to integrate systemic risk scenarios that assess the impact of aggregate and idiosyncratic factors. The analysis is based on CreditRisk+, which uses analytical techniques—similar to those applied in the insurance industry - to estimate banks’ credit portfolio loss distributions, making no assumptions about the cause of default.
Banks and banking --- Bank capital --- Credit --- Borrowing --- Finance --- Money --- Loans --- Capital --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Financial institutions --- Risk management --- Econometric models. --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Monetary economics --- Financial services law & regulation --- Systemic risk --- Credit risk --- Nonperforming loans --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Stress testing --- Financial risk management --- United Kingdom
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