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As a small open economy, Bulgaria benefits from economic exchanges with global partners. However, after a boost before the Global Financial Crisis and EU accession, its integration in global value chains has been growing only modestly in recent years and it remains particularly low when it comes to links with EU partners. To capitalize from the integration with the EU Single Market and exploit the opportunities that will come from joining the euro zone and the Schengen area, Bulgaria should focus on enhancing its non-cost competitiveness by improving its governance and investing in infrastructure and human capital.
Balance of payments --- Competition --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Economic Integration --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Exports and Imports --- Exports --- Factor Movement --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial markets --- Foreign direct investment --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Global value chains --- Globalization --- Globalization: General --- Imports --- International economics --- International Investment --- International Trade Organizations --- International trade --- Investments, Foreign --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Neural Networks and Related Topics --- Quantitative Policy Modeling --- Trade Policy --- Trade: General --- Bulgaria
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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Financial Risk Management --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics --- Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Health Behavior --- Financial Crises --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economic growth --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Economic recession --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Financial crises --- Total factor productivity --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Recessions --- Communicable diseases --- Industrial productivity --- United States
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This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economic Theory --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: Input-Output Tables and Analysis --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Externalities --- Health Behavior --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Public finance & taxation --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Supply shocks --- Economic theory --- Expenditure --- Total factor productivity --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- International finance --- Communicable diseases --- Supply and demand --- Expenditures, Public --- Industrial productivity --- United States
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In this paper, we study the effects of economic integration with democracies on individuals' democratic values and on countries' institutions. We combine survey data with country level measures of democracy from 1960 to 2015, and exploit improvements in air, relative to sea, transportation to derive a time-varying instrument for trade. We find that economic integration with democracies increases both citizens' support for democracy and countries' democracy scores. Instead, trade with non-democracies has no impact on either attitudes or institutions. The effects of trade with democracies are stronger when partners have a longer history of democracy, grow faster, spend more on public goods, and are culturally closer. They are also driven by imports, rather than exports, and by integration with partners that export higher quality goods and that account for a larger share of a country's trade in institutionally intensive, cultural, and consumer goods as well as in goods that involve more face-to-face interactions and entail higher levels of bilateral trust. These patterns are consistent with trade in goods favoring the transmission of democracy by signaling the (actual or perceived) desirability of the latter. We examine alternative mechanisms, and conclude that none of them can, alone, explain our findings.
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This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.
United States --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Economic Theory --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: Input-Output Tables and Analysis --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Externalities --- Health Behavior --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Public finance & taxation --- Spillovers --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Supply shocks --- Economic theory --- Expenditure --- Total factor productivity --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- International finance --- Communicable diseases --- Supply and demand --- Expenditures, Public --- Industrial productivity --- Covid-19
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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.
United States --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Diseases: Contagious --- Financial Risk Management --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics --- Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Health Behavior --- Financial Crises --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economic growth --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Economic recession --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Financial crises --- Total factor productivity --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Recessions --- Communicable diseases --- Industrial productivity --- Covid-19
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Building public support for climate mitigation is a key prerequisite to making meaningful strides toward decarbonization and achieving net-zero emissions. Using nationally representative, individual-level surveys for 28 countries, this paper identifies the current levels and drivers of support for climate mitigation policies. Controlling for individual characteristics, we find that pre-existing beliefs about policy efficacy, perceived costs and co-benefits (e.g., cleaner air), and the degree of policy progressivity are important drivers of support for carbon pricing policies. The knowledge gap about climate mitigation policies can be large, but randomized information experiments show that support increases (decreases) after individuals are introduced to new information on the benefits (potential costs) of such policies.
Climate change --- Climate policy --- Climate --- Climatic changes --- Currency crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Emissions trading --- Environment --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental economics --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Environmental Policy --- Environmental policy --- Foreign Exchange --- Global Warming --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Greenhouse gases --- Informal Economy --- Informal sector --- Macroeconomics --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Underground Econom
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Building public support for climate mitigation is a key prerequisite to making meaningful strides toward implementing climate mitigation policies and achieving decarbonization. Using nationally representative individual-level surveys for 28 countries, this note sheds light on the individual characteristics and beliefs associated with climate risk perceptions and preferences for climate policies.
Environmental economics. --- Environmental policy. --- Climate change --- Climate policy --- Climate --- Climatic changes --- Currency crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic sectors --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Emissions trading --- Environment --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental economics --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Environmental Policy --- Environmental policy --- Financial crises --- Foreign Exchange --- Global Warming --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Greenhouse gases --- Informal Economy --- Informal sector --- Macroeconomics --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Underground Econom --- United States
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Asia and the Pacific’s green transition will have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Over the past decades, the region has become the engine of global economic growth. With relatively heavy reliance on coal and high energy intensity, the region has recently become the largest contributor to growth in global GHG emissions, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total emissions in 2020. Achieving net zero by 2050 requires an energy transition at an unprecedented scale and speed, even as the region must ensure energy security and affordability. The region must also address its vulnerability to climate change as it comprises many countries highly exposed to climate hazards increasing in severity and frequency with global warming. If managed well, the green transformation in Asia and the Pacific will create opportunities for economies not only in the region, but also around the world for inclusive and sustainable growth. The global economy is still far from achieving net zero by 2050, and the Asia and the Pacific region must play its part to deliver on mitigation and adaptation goals. Understanding Asia’s perspectives on the constraints and issues with climate ambitions, climate policy actions, and constraints is central for devising climate strategies to meet climate goals. To this end, this chapter draws on novel surveys of country authorities and public in the region to distill climate ambitions and challenges faced and identify sources of major gaps in achieving mitigation and adaptation goals. Measures to help close the gaps are drawn from policy discussions with country authorities in bilateral surveillance and related studies.
Climate change --- Climate finance --- Climate policy --- Climate --- Climatic changes --- Economics --- Emissions trading --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: Government Policy --- Environment --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental economics --- Environmental Economics: General --- Environmental Economics: Government Policy --- Environmental policy & protocols --- Environmental Policy --- Environmental policy --- Global Warming --- Green finance / sustainable finance --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Greenhouse gases --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International organization --- International Organizations --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Natural Disasters --- Natural disasters --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Political Economy --- Political economy --- Pollution Control Adoption and Costs • Distributional Effects • Employment Effects --- Prices --- Public Policy --- Renewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy --- Renewable Resources and Conservation: Issues in International Trade --- Sustainable Development --- Technological Innovation
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