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Book
Bulgaria in Global Value Chains: Leveraging Integration with the EU : Bulgaria
Authors: ---
ISBN: 9798400280689 Year: 2024 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

As a small open economy, Bulgaria benefits from economic exchanges with global partners. However, after a boost before the Global Financial Crisis and EU accession, its integration in global value chains has been growing only modestly in recent years and it remains particularly low when it comes to links with EU partners. To capitalize from the integration with the EU Single Market and exploit the opportunities that will come from joining the euro zone and the Schengen area, Bulgaria should focus on enhancing its non-cost competitiveness by improving its governance and investing in infrastructure and human capital.


Book
After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.


Book
Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.


Book
Economic Integration and the Transmission of Democracy
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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In this paper, we study the effects of economic integration with democracies on individuals' democratic values and on countries' institutions. We combine survey data with country level measures of democracy from 1960 to 2015, and exploit improvements in air, relative to sea, transportation to derive a time-varying instrument for trade. We find that economic integration with democracies increases both citizens' support for democracy and countries' democracy scores. Instead, trade with non-democracies has no impact on either attitudes or institutions. The effects of trade with democracies are stronger when partners have a longer history of democracy, grow faster, spend more on public goods, and are culturally closer. They are also driven by imports, rather than exports, and by integration with partners that export higher quality goods and that account for a larger share of a country's trade in institutionally intensive, cultural, and consumer goods as well as in goods that involve more face-to-face interactions and entail higher levels of bilateral trust. These patterns are consistent with trade in goods favoring the transmission of democracy by signaling the (actual or perceived) desirability of the latter. We examine alternative mechanisms, and conclude that none of them can, alone, explain our findings.

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Book
Sectoral Shocks and Spillovers: An Application to COVID-19
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 151359253X Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper examines the role of sectoral spillovers in propagating sectoral shocks in the broader economy, both in the past and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we study how shocks that occur within a sector itself and spillovers from shocks to other sectors affect sectoral activity, for a large sample of countries from 1995 to 2014. We find that both supply and demand shocks—measured as changes in, respectively, productivity and government purchases at the sector level—have large spillover effects on sector-level gross value added and on a sector’s share of the economy. We then use these historical estimates, together with the network structure of global production, to quantify the spillovers from the economic shock associated with the pandemic. We find spillover effects to be sizeable, making up a significant fraction of the overall decline in activity in 2020.Our results have implications for the design of policies with a sectoral dimension.


Book
After-Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1513592416 Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions often leave long-lived scars, particularly to productivity. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term output losses are anticipated to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still expected to be substantial. The degree of expected scarring varies across countries, depending on the structure of economies and the size of the policy response. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to suffer more scarring than advanced economies.


Book
Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross Country Survey
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 9798400258077 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Building public support for climate mitigation is a key prerequisite to making meaningful strides toward decarbonization and achieving net-zero emissions. Using nationally representative, individual-level surveys for 28 countries, this paper identifies the current levels and drivers of support for climate mitigation policies. Controlling for individual characteristics, we find that pre-existing beliefs about policy efficacy, perceived costs and co-benefits (e.g., cleaner air), and the degree of policy progressivity are important drivers of support for carbon pricing policies. The knowledge gap about climate mitigation policies can be large, but randomized information experiments show that support increases (decreases) after individuals are introduced to new information on the benefits (potential costs) of such policies.


Book
Public Perceptions of Climate Mitigation Policies : Evidence from Cross-Country Surveys
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 9798400230257 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Building public support for climate mitigation is a key prerequisite to making meaningful strides toward implementing climate mitigation policies and achieving decarbonization. Using nationally representative individual-level surveys for 28 countries, this note sheds light on the individual characteristics and beliefs associated with climate risk perceptions and preferences for climate policies.


Book
Asia’s Perspectives on Climate Change : Policies, Perceptions, and Gaps
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 9798400257148 Year: 2023 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Asia and the Pacific’s green transition will have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Over the past decades, the region has become the engine of global economic growth. With relatively heavy reliance on coal and high energy intensity, the region has recently become the largest contributor to growth in global GHG emissions, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total emissions in 2020. Achieving net zero by 2050 requires an energy transition at an unprecedented scale and speed, even as the region must ensure energy security and affordability. The region must also address its vulnerability to climate change as it comprises many countries highly exposed to climate hazards increasing in severity and frequency with global warming. If managed well, the green transformation in Asia and the Pacific will create opportunities for economies not only in the region, but also around the world for inclusive and sustainable growth. The global economy is still far from achieving net zero by 2050, and the Asia and the Pacific region must play its part to deliver on mitigation and adaptation goals. Understanding Asia’s perspectives on the constraints and issues with climate ambitions, climate policy actions, and constraints is central for devising climate strategies to meet climate goals. To this end, this chapter draws on novel surveys of country authorities and public in the region to distill climate ambitions and challenges faced and identify sources of major gaps in achieving mitigation and adaptation goals. Measures to help close the gaps are drawn from policy discussions with country authorities in bilateral surveillance and related studies.

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