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For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future. The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.

Stocks --- Random walks (Mathematics) --- Prices --- Mathematical models --- Financial organisation --- Additive process (Probability theory) --- Random walk process (Mathematics) --- Walks, Random (Mathematics) --- Stochastic processes --- Mathematical models. --- 305.91 --- 333.613 --- 333.645 --- 339.42 --- AA / International- internationaal --- 336.76 --- 336.76 Beurswezen. Geldmarkt. Valutamarkt. Binnenlandse geldmarkt. Valutamarkt --- Beurswezen. Geldmarkt. Valutamarkt. Binnenlandse geldmarkt. Valutamarkt --- Common shares --- Common stocks --- Equities --- Equity capital --- Equity financing --- Shares of stock --- Stock issues --- Stock offerings --- Stock trading --- Trading, Stock --- Securities --- Bonds --- Corporations --- Going public (Securities) --- Stock repurchasing --- Stockholders --- Prices&delete& --- Econometrie van de financiële activa. Portfolio allocation en management. CAPM. Bubbles --- Activiteiten van de nationale en internationale markten. Beursnoteringen van aandelen en obligaties --- Speculatie op de beurs --- Financiële analyse --- Beleggen. --- Stocks - Prices - Mathematical models

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Implications of factor-based asset pricing models for estimation of expected returns and for portfolio selection are investigated. In the presence of model mispricing due to a missing risk factor, the mispricing and the residual covariance matrix are linked together. Imposing a strong form of this link leads to expected return estimates that are more precise and more stable over time than unrestricted estimates. Optimal portfolio weights that incorporate the link when no factors are observable are proportional to expected return estimates, effectively using an identity matrix as a covariance matrix. The resulting portfolios perform well both in simulations and in out-of-sample comparisons.