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With pay-as-you-go schemes in place, population aging will impose a heavy fiscal burden on young and future cohorts. However, these cohorts may also profit from larger inheritances as the number of heirs declines. The aim of this paper is to explore the compensating potential of private intergenerational transfers. A dynamic, computable general equilibrium model is employed allowing for a pay-as-you-go scheme, various bequest motives, and an endogenous labor supply. The findings are twofold. First, the increase in future generations' inheritances is insufficient to make up for the demographic burden. Second, increasing the inheritance tax during the demographic transition may alleviate the fiscal burden of future generations by improving overall efficiency.
Labor --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Fiscal Policy --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- Population & demography --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor supply --- Demographic change --- Aging --- Tax allowances --- Social assistance spending --- Population and demographics --- Taxes --- Expenditure --- Labor market --- Demographic transition --- Population aging --- Income tax --- Expenditures, Public --- Germany
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This paper calibrates the production functions of 176 countries to fit 2003 data and examines the capital flows that emerge, when labor forces change according to the 2007 UN population projections. It finds that demographic factors are no help in correcting today's global imbalances; that Japan's capital outflows have as much to do with population aging as with the yen carry-trade; and that China is key to understanding Asia's demographic impact on the world. It also finds that Asia offers the greatest arbitrage opportunities worldwide during the demographic transition and has the greatest potential for regional financial integration among world regions. Moreover, the demographic transition is unlikely to result in an asset price meltdown and could even raise world interest rates under perfect capital mobility.
Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Demography --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International economics --- Population & demography --- Labour --- income economics --- Capital flows --- Demographic change --- Labor force --- Aging --- Capital account --- Capital movements --- Demographic transition --- Labor market --- Population aging --- Balance of payments --- Japan
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This paper creates the first dataset of bilateral remittance flows for a limited set of developing countries and estimates a gravity model for workers' remittances. We find that most of the variation in bilateral remittance flows can be explained by a few gravity variables. The evidence on the motives to remit is mixed, but altruism may be less of a factor than commonly believed. Most strikingly, remittances do not seem to increase in the wake of a natural disaster and appear aligned with the business cycle in the home country, suggesting that remittances may not play a major role in limiting vulnerability to shocks. To encourage remittances and maximize their economic impact, policies should be directed at reducing transaction costs, promoting financial sector development, and improving the business climate.
Emigrant remittances --- Capital movements --- Econometric models. --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Immigrant remittances --- Remittances, Emigrant --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Natural Disasters --- Remittances --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- International economics --- Currency --- Natural disasters --- Multiple currency practices --- Current account --- Outward remittances --- Bangladesh
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