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Inflation became the dominant economic, social, and political problem of the industrialized West during the 1970's. This book is about how the inflation came to pass and what can be done about it. Certain to provoke controversy, it is a major source of new empirical information and theoretical conclusions concerning the causes of international inflation. The authors construct a consistent data base of information for eight countries and design a theoretically sound model to test and evaluate competing hypotheses incorporating the most recent theoretical developments. Additional chapters address an impressive variety of issues that complement and corroborate the core of the study. They answer such questions as these: Can countries conduct an independent monetary policy under fixed exchange rates? How closely tied are product prices across countries? How are disturbances transmitted across countries? The International Transmission of Inflation is an important contribution to international monetary economics in furnishing an invaluable empirical foundation for future investigation and discussion.
Money. Monetary policy --- International finance --- Inflation (Finance) --- Mathematical models. --- 336.748.12 --- -International finance --- -AA / International- internationaal --- 382.242.0 --- 333.110 --- 333.841 --- 333.432.8 --- International monetary system --- International money --- Finance --- International economic relations --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Algemeen prijsniveau. Prijsindex. Prijsstijging --- Mathematical models --- Balans van het kapitaalverkeer: algemeenheden. --- Centrale banken en parastatale kredietinstellingen: algemeen. Overheidsbemoeiïng inzake organisatie en verdeling van het krediet. --- Inflatie. --- Internationale monetaire organisatie. Internationaal Muntfonds. Algemene leningovereenkomsten. --- 336.748.12 Algemeen prijsniveau. Prijsindex. Prijsstijging --- AA / International- internationaal --- Centrale banken en parastatale kredietinstellingen: algemeen. Overheidsbemoeiïng inzake organisatie en verdeling van het krediet --- Internationale monetaire organisatie. Internationaal Muntfonds. Algemene leningovereenkomsten --- Inflatie --- Balans van het kapitaalverkeer: algemeenheden --- Western world --- Inflation --- E-books --- International finance. --- Inflation (Finance) - Mathematical models. --- International finance - Mathematical models. --- inflation, economics, industrialization, monetary policy, exchange rates, price, trade, international, finance, purchasing power, bretton woods system, capital flows, control, real income, oil, mathematical models, aggregate demand variables, sterilization, simulation experiments, nonfiction, foreign markets, history, economy.
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This paper presents a theoretical and empirical investigation into timing relationships between variables within and across industrialized countries. In the analysis we highlight the two polar cases of completely closed and open economies and draw some implications for timing between monetary expansion and inflation, inter-country comparisons of inflation rates and interest rates, and comparisons of central bank behavior. The Granger-causality test is applied in a bivariate fashion to these groups of variables. The main empirical results of our analysis are: (1) Domestic monetary expansion appears to lead inflation in the sense that money Granger-causes prices without feedback, contradicting an implication of the monetary approach to the balance of payments. (2) Hardly any significant timing relationship exists between domestic and foreign rates of inflation during the fixed exchange rate period, providing no evidence for a generalized "law of one price." (3) Some sterilization of official reserve inflows was successfully performed by the non-reserve central banks, except for Canada. (4) U.S. interest rates Granger-cause foreign rates, providing evidence of some international transmission via asset markets.
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Oil prices, commodity prices and American monetary policy, the last operating through a variety of channels, have all figures prominently in explanations of the international inflation process in the last 1960s and early '70s. Our major purpose in this paper is to test these various hypotheses. We do so in the context of a reduced-form rational-expectations price equation which we estimate for the United States and seven other industrial countries using quarterly data for the period 1955 through 1976. The principal conclusion that emerges from this exercise is that movements in domestic money in these countries served as the key link in the inflation process. The factors that produced these monetary changes, however, differed among countries. Price shocks of various sorts were clearly of secondary importance. The other important set of conclusions concerns the demand for money. In place of a traditional stock adjustment model, we used, GLS with a second- order correct ion for autocorrelation. We believe this produced more plausible estimates of the parameters of the long-run demand function and of the adjustment process it self.
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Keynes' General Theory was a brilliant attempt to explain the paradox of low interest rates, ineffectual easy monetary policy, and low investment during the Great Depression. We argue that Keynes' failure to distinguish between low nominal and high real interest rates led him to misinterpret a tight and all too effective monetary policy and unnecessarily hypothesize a downward shift in investment demand. Keynesian ideas in turn profoundly influenced economic policy in the 1960s and 1970s. The resulting postwar inflation -- rather than scholarship on what actually happened in the 1930s -- appears to be the primary reason for the waning influence of the ideas derived from the General Theory.
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