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More than low default rates, lenders are interested in the expected return on their loans. In this paper, we consider a number of other measures of repayment and nonpayment that are likely to be of direct interest to lenders. Using data from the Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study, we document repayment and nonpayment outcomes 10 years after graduation for American students receiving BA/BS degrees in 1993. We estimate differences in these outcomes across individual/family background characteristics, college major, type of institution, the amount borrowed, and post-graduation income. A key contribution is our analysis of the following outcomes in addition to student loan default rates: the fraction of the original undergraduate loan amount repaid as of 2003, nonpayment rates (including deferment and forbearance as well as default), and the fraction of original undergraduate loan amounts on which borrowers defaulted or are currently not repaying.
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The internal rate of return to schooling is a fundamental economic parameter that is often used to assess whether expenditure on education should be increased or decreased. This paper considers alternative approaches to estimating marginal internal rates of return for different schooling levels. We implement a general nonparametric approach to estimate marginal internal rates of return that take into account tuition costs, income taxes and nonlinearities in the earnings-schooling-experience relationship. The returns obtained by the more general method differ substantially from Mincer returns in levels and in their evolution over time. They indicate relatively larger returns to graduating from high school than from graduating from college, although both have been increasing over time.
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This paper considers the interpretation of "Mincer rates of return." We test and reject the Mincer model. It fails to track the time series of true returns. We show how repeated cross section and panel data improves the ability of analysts to estimate the ex ante and ex post marginal rate of returns. Accounting for sequential revelation of information calls into question the validity of the internal rate of return as a tool for policy analysis. The large estimated psychic costs of schooling found in recent work helps to explain why persons do not attend school even though the financial rewards for doing so are high. We present methods for computing distributions of ex post and ex ante returns.
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