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This paper considers institutional and structural factors associated with investment activity in a panel of up to 129 developed and developing countries. It introduces these factors to a standard neoclassical investment function for open economies, and find that financial development and institutional quality are reasonably robust determinants of cross-country capital formation, with latter displaying more stability in the sign and significance of its coefficient. Indeed, when endogeneity concerns are addressed more explicitly using external instruments, and both interactions and subsamples are considered, institutional quality tends to survive as the causal determinant of investment.
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This book, 'Asian Economies: History, Institutions, and Structures' by Jamus Jerome Lim, provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic history, institutional frameworks, and structural developments of various Asian countries. It emphasizes the historical legacy and political-economic institutions that have shaped Asia's economic trajectory. The book compares development journeys across Asia and explores their integration with the global economy. It targets students and professionals in multinational corporations and financial institutions who may not have a deep economics background but require analytical tools and quantitative knowledge. The book fills a gap in literature by offering a cohesive narrative suitable for upper-level undergraduate courses in regional economic studies.
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The scope and complexity of international trading arrangements in the Middle East, as well as their spotty historical record of success, underscores the urgent need for an adequate understanding of the relative costs and benefits of participation in preferential trading arrangements and, more generally, of changes in domestic import regimes. This paper seeks to address this problem by providing estimates of the adjustment costs associated with two broad classes of hypothetical trade policy scenarios for Syria: participation in preferential trading arrangements, and changes in the domestic import regime. The authors find that the revenue consequences of the first scenario may be substantial. Their analysis of the second scenario suggests that the number of tariff bands can be reduced, while ensuring revenue neutrality, via the introduction of a value added tax of sufficient but reasonable size.
Common market --- Customs --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Equilibrium --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Free trade area --- General equilibrium --- Import regime --- Import regimes --- Import taxes --- Imports --- International Economics and Trade --- International trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- International trading --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Tariff lines --- Tariff reform --- Trade adjustment --- Trade models --- Trade Policy --- Trade promotion --- Trade reform
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This paper considers the question of whether international banks learn from their previous crisis experiences and reduce their lending to developing countries in the event of a financial crisis. The analysis combines a bank-level dataset of bank activity and ownership with country-level data on the stock of historical crisis events between 1800 and 2005. To circumvent selection and endogeneity concerns, the paper exploits temporal variations in the relative recency of crises as instruments for crisis experience. The results indicate that foreign banks with greater crisis experience reduced their lending significantly more relative to other foreign banks, which can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a learning effect. The findings survive robustness checks that include alternative measures of crisis experience, additional controls, and decompositions into different types of crises. The question of learning is also examined from the perspective of other measures of bank performance.
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The scope and complexity of international trading arrangements in the Middle East, as well as their spotty historical record of success, underscores the urgent need for an adequate understanding of the relative costs and benefits of participation in preferential trading arrangements and, more generally, of changes in domestic import regimes. This paper seeks to address this problem by providing estimates of the adjustment costs associated with two broad classes of hypothetical trade policy scenarios for Syria: participation in preferential trading arrangements, and changes in the domestic import regime. The authors find that the revenue consequences of the first scenario may be substantial. Their analysis of the second scenario suggests that the number of tariff bands can be reduced, while ensuring revenue neutrality, via the introduction of a value added tax of sufficient but reasonable size.
Common market --- Customs --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Equilibrium --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Free trade area --- General equilibrium --- Import regime --- Import regimes --- Import taxes --- Imports --- International Economics and Trade --- International trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- International trading --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Tariff lines --- Tariff reform --- Trade adjustment --- Trade models --- Trade Policy --- Trade promotion --- Trade reform
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How does the process of export diversification play out in a transitioning economy, especially in light of government policy aimed at trade liberalization? This paper examines this question by considering a directed policy effort by Syria-an economy transitioning from both economic centralization and resource dependence-to liberalize its trade in 2001. In addition to documenting the patterns of diversification at the aggregate level since the implementation of the policy, we also examine factors that are related to diversification at the sectoral level. Our findings suggest that, while Syria has achieved reasonably rapid export diversification, this may to a large extent be the result of structural transformations in the economy, and that further consolidation of diversification gains may require continued policy reform along the lines of strengthening Syria's weak institutional and business environment.
Achieving Shared Growth --- Agribusiness & Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Export diversification --- Free Trade --- Gender --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Trade Policy --- Syria
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This paper studies the factors associated with outbound bilateral mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity by firms located in emerging economies. The authors document recent trends in emerging market M&A flows, which have risen dramatically over the past decade, and explore the factors that may have contributed to this rise. They find distinct patterns for M&A deals according to whether the acquisition targets are in other emerging economies or advanced countries, and that these differences can be attributed to differing theoretical motivations behind foreign direct investment. The authors also consider the implications of their model for future M&A originating in the global South, in light of the global financial crisis of 2008.
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This paper develops an empirical measure of growth poles and uses it to examine the phenomenon of multipolarity. The authors formally define several alternative measures, provide theoretical justifications for these measures, and compute polarity values for nation states in the global economy. The calculations suggest that China, Western Europe, and the United States have been important growth poles over the broad course of world history, and in modern economic history the United States, Japan, Germany, and China have had prominent periods of growth polarity. The paper goes on to analyze the economic and institutional determinants, both at the proximate and fundamental level, that underlie this measure of polarity, as well as compute measures of dispersion in growth polarity shares for the major growth poles.
Achieving Shared Growth --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Growth Dynamics --- Growth Poles --- Growth Spillovers --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Multipolar World --- Population Policies
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This paper examines gross financial inflows to developing countries between 2000 and 2013, with a particular focus on the potential effects of quantitative easing policies in the United States and other high-income countries. The paper finds evidence for potential transmission of quantitative easing along observable liquidity, portfolio balancing, and confidence channels. Moreover, quantitative easing had an additional effect over and above these observable channels, which the paper argues cannot be attributed to either market expectations or changes in the structural relationships between inflows and observable fundamentals. The baseline estimates place the lower bound of the effect of quantitative easing at around 5 percent of gross inflows (for the average developing economy), which suggests that of the 62 percent increase in inflows during 2009-13 related to changing global monetary conditions, at least 13 percent of this was attributable to quantitative easing. The paper also finds evidence of heterogeneity among different types of flows; portfolio (especially bond) flows tend to be more sensitive than foreign direct investment to our measured effects from quantitative easing. Finally, the paper performs simulations that explore the potential effects of the withdrawal of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries.
Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Developing Countries --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Gross Financial Flows --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mutual Funds --- Private Sector Development --- Quantitative Easing
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This paper considers the relationship between institutional quality, educational outcomes, and economic performance. More specifically, it seeks to establish the linkages by which government effectiveness affects per capita income, via its mediating effect on human capital formation. The empirical approach adopts a two-stage strategy that estimates national-level educational production functions that include government effectiveness as a covariate, and then uses these estimates as instruments for human capital in cross-country regressions of per capita income. The results identify a significant and positive effect of human capital on per capita income levels, and partially resolves the inconsistency between macro- and micro-level studies of the effect of human capital on income. The results also remain robust to alternative specifications, extension to a panel setting, subsamples of the data, and fully endogenous institutions.
Cross-Country Income --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Governance --- Governance Indicators --- Human Capital --- Institutions --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- National Governance --- Private Sector Development
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