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Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share.

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In this paper we analyze the fundamental drivers of China’s residential investment as a share of its GDP. Our analysis indicates that the economic structural changes that led to rebalancing toward consumption were the key driver of the rising residential investment to GDP ratio in China. We project that residential investment would moderate from the current level of 9 percent of GDP to around 6 percent by 2024, and its contribution to real GDP growth would decline gradually from currently about half percent of GDP to slightly negative over this period, barring policy intervention. The decline in the growth contribution of residential investment reflects the projected somewhat slower pace of rebalancing going forward and the envisaged increases in labor costs due to demographic changes.

Real estate business. --- Real estate investment --- Investment in real estate --- Real property investment --- Investments --- Land speculation --- Real estate business --- Real estate companies --- Real estate industry --- Business --- Land use --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Property & real estate --- Consumption --- Housing prices --- Saving and investment --- Economics --- Prices --- China, People's Republic of

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We study the inflation process in India, focusing on the periods before and after the adoption of flexible inflation-forecast targeting (FIT) in India. Our analysis uses several approaches including standard Phillips curve estimation for headline and core inflation, an examination of the sensitivity of medium-term inflation expectations to inflation surprises, and the properties of convergence between headline and core inflation. Results indicate an important role for domestic factors in driving the inflation process, and there is evidence that expectations have become more anchored since 2015. This result could be attributable to FIT adoption, or to persistently low food prices which dominate the post-FIT-adoption period. The policy implications of these structural changes in the inflation process are investigated using a semi-structural model calibrated to the Indian economy.

Business and Economics --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Food prices --- Inflation targeting --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Import prices --- Monetary policy --- Financial markets --- Financial services industry --- Imports --- India

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Inflation and unemployment rate were largely disconnected between 2000 and 2019 in advanced economies. We decompose core inflation into two parts based on the cyclical sensitivity of CPI components and document several salient facts: (i) both the cyclical and non-cyclical parts had surges across advaced economies in 2011, when unemployment rates had limited changes; (ii) the non-cyclical part had a downward trend between 2012 and 2019, which existed across countries, sectors, goods, and services; (iii) global indexes such as oil price, shipping costs, and a global supply chain pressure index do not explain the downward trend; and (iv) the cyclical part, after controlling for the impact of economic slack, also had a downward trend between 2012 and 2019. These patterns help disentangle competing explanations for the disconnect between inflation and unemployment rate. The approach has potential to help understand forces shaping price pressures during the pandemic and in the post-pandemic period ahead.

United States --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Inflation --- Labor --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Financial Crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Labour --- income economics --- Unemployment rate --- Oil prices --- Consumer price indexes --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Unemployment --- Price indexes --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009

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Existing studies on the downward trend in the labor share of income mostly focus on changes within individual countries. I document, however, that half of the global decline in the labor share of income can be traced to the relocation of activities between countries. I develop a two-country model to show that when the relative price of investment goods falls, production activities with a small elasticity of substitution between capital and labor tend to get offshored from high- to low-wage countries. The model provides an explanation as to why such relocation may drive the labor share down in both developed and developing economies, as well as globally.

Offshore outsourcing. --- Labor market. --- Employees --- Market, Labor --- Supply and demand for labor --- Markets --- Off-shoring --- Offshoring --- Contracting out --- Supply and demand --- Investments: Stocks --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Trade and Labor Market Interactions --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Globalization: Economic Development --- Globalization: Labor --- Labour --- income economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Investment & securities --- Labor share --- Manufacturing --- Wages --- Stocks --- Economic sectors --- Financial institutions --- Labor economics --- United States