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The removal of government guarantees in borrowing countries does not eliminate the moral hazard problem posed by the existence of deposit guarantees in lender countries. The paper shows that, after restrictions on international capital flows are lifted, banks in low-risk developed countries benefit from lending funds captured in home markets at low deposit rates to high-risk/high-yield projects in emerging economies, even though these projects command lower expected returns. This, in turn, has a negative impact on bank profitability in the borrowing country, even when foreign funds are intermediated through domestic banks. The results are consistent with the surge in international bank lending flows that led to recent banking crises in Asia.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Asymmetric and Private Information --- International Finance: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Banking --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- International economics --- Deposit rates --- Moral hazard --- Deposit insurance --- Capital account liberalization --- Financial services --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Balance of payments --- Commercial banks --- Financial institutions --- Financial crises --- Banks and banking --- Interest rates --- Financial risk management --- Crisis management --- United States
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The paper presents a model of irreversible investment under uncertainty, where investment takes place whenever a threshold level of marginal returns is reached. The threshold depends positively on price volatility; a change from high to low inflation induces an upward capital stock adjustment. In economies that move in and out of temporary stabilizations, the observed effect is a negative inflation-investment correlation that replicates previous empirical findings, due to purely short-term dynamics. I study how this correlation is affected by the expected duration of each regime. Empirical evidence from ten inflationary economies confirms the predictions of the model.
Capacity --- Capital --- Consumer price indexes --- Deflation --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Government policy --- Inflation --- Intangible Capital --- Investment --- Macroeconomics --- Price indexes --- Price Level --- Price stabilization --- Prices --- Argentina
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Theoretical and empirical analysis of de jure dollarization.With the persistent instability of international financial markets, emerging economies are exploring new ways to reduce exposure to capital flow volatility. Some analysts argue that financially open economies are best served by more flexible regimes, while others argue in favor of extreme exchange rate regimes that have a strong commitment to a fixed parity or dispense with an independent currency. The successful launch of the euro has made more realistic the prospect of replacing a national currency with a strong foreign one. Recent examples include the adoption of the US dollar by Ecuador and El Salvador.The introduction of a foreign currency as sole legal tender, termed full (de jure) dollarization, has been the center of much political and academic debate. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the issues from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The topics discussed include the role of balance sheet effects, the linkage between currency risk and country risk, the impact of dollarization on trade, financial integration and credibility, the implications of dollarization for the lender of last resort, and the institutional and political economy aspects of dollarization.
Money. --- Dollar, American. --- Foreign exchange. --- Currency question. --- International finance. --- Dollarization --- Dollar, American --- Foreign exchange --- Currency question --- International finance --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- International monetary system --- International money --- Fiat money --- Free coinage --- Monetary question --- Scrip --- Cambistry --- Currency exchange --- Exchange, Foreign --- Foreign currency --- Foreign exchange problem --- Foreign money --- Forex --- FX (Finance) --- International exchange --- American dollar --- Currency --- Money, Primitive --- Specie --- Standard of value --- International economic relations --- Currency crises --- Finance, Public --- Legal tender --- Monetary policy --- Exchange --- Value --- Banks and banking --- Coinage --- Gold --- Silver --- Silver question --- Wealth --- Dollarization. --- ECONOMICS/Finance --- ECONOMICS/Political Economy
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This paper presents a portfolio model of financial intermediation in which currency choice is determined by hedging decisions on both sides of a bank’s balance sheet. Minimum variance portfolio (MVP) allocations are found to provide a natural benchmark to estimate the scope for dollarization of bank deposits and loans as a function of macroeconomic uncertainty. Dollarization hysteresis is shown to occur when the expected volatility of the inflation rate is high in relation to that of the real exchange rate. The evidence shows that MVP dollarization generally approximates actual dollarization closely for a broad sample of countries, and policy implications are explored.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Monetary Policy --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Dollarization --- Currencies --- Real exchange rates --- Loans --- Monetary policy --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- Peru
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This paper shows that a central bank, by announcing and committing ex-ante to a bailout policy that is contingent on the realization of certain states of nature (for example on the occurrence of an adverse macroeconomic shock), creates a risk-reducing “value effect” that more than outweighs the moral hazard component of such a policy.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Asymmetric and Private Information --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banking --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Moral hazard --- Deposit rates --- Lender of last resort --- Deposit insurance --- Banks and banking --- Financial risk management --- Interest rates --- Crisis management
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In this paper, we examine how the presence of country insurance schemes affects policymakers' incentives to undertake reforms. Such schemes (especially when made contingent on negative external shocks) are more likely to foster than to delay reform in crisis-prone volatile economies. The consequences of country insurance, however, hinge on the nature of the reforms being considered: "buffering" reforms, aimed at mitigating the cost of crises, could be partially substituted for, and ultimately discouraged by, insurance. By contrast, "enhancing" reforms that pay off more generously in the absence of a crisis are likely to be promoted.
Financial crises --- Moral hazard --- Insurance --- Assurance (Insurance) --- Coverage, Insurance --- Indemnity insurance --- Insurance coverage --- Insurance industry --- Insurance protection --- Mutual insurance --- Underwriting --- Finance --- Risk (Insurance) --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Econometric models. --- Government policy. --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Taxation --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Crises --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Bankruptcy --- Liquidation --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Public finance & taxation --- Tax incentives --- Solvency --- Financial risk management --- Debt --- Brazil
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This paper analyzes the behavior of closed-end country fund discounts, including evidence from the Mexican and East Asian crises. We find that the ratio of fund prices to their fundamental value increases dramatically during a crisis, an anomaly that we denote the “closed-end country fund puzzle.” Our results show that the puzzle relates directly to the fact that international investors are less (more) sensitive to changes in local (global) market conditions than domestic investors. This asymmetry implies that foreign participation in local markets can both help dampen a crisis in the originating country, and amplify the contagion to noncrisis countries.
Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Crises --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Investment & securities --- Stock markets --- Financial crises --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Asset prices --- Stocks --- Financial markets --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- Stock exchanges --- Financial services industry --- Mexico
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This paper examines how public disclosure of banks’ risk exposure affects banks’ risk-taking incentives and assesses how the presence of informed depositors influences the soundness of the banking system. It finds that, when banks have complete control over the volatility of their loan portfolios, public disclosure reduces the probability of banking crises. However, when banks do not control their risk exposure, the presence of informed depositors may increase the probability of bank failures.
Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Asymmetric and Private Information --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banking --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Deposit rates --- Distressed institutions --- Bank deposits --- Bank credit --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Commercial banks --- Banks and banking --- Interest rates --- Financial services industry --- Credit --- New Zealand
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This paper studies the impact of competition on the determination of interest rates and banks’ risk-taking behavior under different assumptions about deposit insurance and the dissemination of financial information. It finds that lower entry costs foster competition in deposit rate sand reduce banks’ incentives to limit risk exposure. Although higher insurance coverage amplifies this effect, two alternative arrangements (risk-based contributions to the insurance fund and public disclosure of financial information) help to reduce it. Moreover, uninsured but fully informed depositors and risk-based full deposit insurance yield the same equilibrium risk level, which is independent of entry costs. The welfare implications of the different arrangements are also explored.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Insurance --- Asymmetric and Private Information --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Banking --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Deposit insurance --- Deposit rates --- Competition --- Financial crises --- Financial services --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Bank deposits --- Banks and banking --- Crisis management --- Interest rates --- New Zealand
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In recent years the term "fear of floating" has been used to describe exchange rate regimes that, while officially flexible, in practice intervene heavily to avoid sudden or large depreciations. However, the data reveals that in most cases (and increasingly so in the 2000s) intervention has been aimed at limiting appreciations rather than depreciations, often motivated by the neo-mercantilist view of a depreciated real exchange rate as protection for domestic industries. As a first step to address the broader question of whether this view delivers on its promise, the authors examine whether this "fear of appreciation" has a positive impact on growth performance in developing economies. The authors show that depreciated exchange rates appear to induce higher growth, but that the effect, rather than through import substitution or export booms as argued by the mercantilist view, works largely through the deepening of domestic savings and capital accumulation.
Capital Accumulation --- Central Bank --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Depreciations --- Domestic Savings --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange Rate --- Exchange Rate Regimes --- Exchange Rates --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Growth Performance --- Import --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Real Exchange Rate
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