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Through the 2000s, Korea’s export and import linkages to advanced and emerging markets increased significantly. At the same time, the correlation of output growth between Korea and these economies rose. This paper investigates the nature of the link between trade linkages and the comovement of international business cycles (BC) using Korean industry-level domestic and international input-output data. The results suggest that, at the industry-level, higher export linkages lead to a larger positive GDP growth comovement, while higher import linkages lead to higher negative employment growth comovement. Furthermore, the decomposition of aggregate BC comovement shows that the increase in trade with China has contributed the most to aggregate BC comovement, while the impact of trade linkages on BC comovement is propagated domestically via vertical linkages. These findings suggest that the Korean economy can be significantly affected by a few countries that are highly linked through trade to Korea and/or a few industries that are highly interconnected to other industries.

International trade --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International Business Cycles --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- Transactional Relationships --- Contracts and Reputation --- Networks --- Trade: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Economic growth --- Imports --- Exports --- Manufacturing --- Business cycles --- Economic sectors --- Economic theory --- Korea, Republic of --- Income economics

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Transmission of Domestic and External Shocks through Input-Output Network: Evidence from Korean Industries.

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Export structure is less diversified in low-income countries (LICs) and especially small states that face resource constraints and small economic size. This paper explores the potential linkages between export structure and economic growth and its volatility in LICs and small states, using a range of indices of export concentration differing in the coverage of industries. The empirical analysis finds that export diversification may promote economic growth and reduce economic volatility in these countries. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that the economic benefits of export diversification differ by country size and income level—there are bigger benefits for relatively larger and poorer countries within the group of LICs and small states.

Produce trade. --- Agricultural marketing --- Agricultural products --- Food trade --- Agriculture --- Food industry and trade --- Commodity exchanges --- Farm produce --- Economic aspects --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Industrialization --- Manufacturing and Service Industries --- Choice of Technology --- Development Planning and Policy: General --- Trade: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- International economics --- Export diversification --- Exports --- Personal income --- Government consumption --- Export performance --- Income --- Consumption --- Economics

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We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged from their larger counterparts after the crisis. The impact was progressively larger for medium, small, and micro firms relative to large firms. It was also disproportionally larger for firms with limited credit market access. Moreover, smaller firms were less likely to have access to safer banks: those that were better capitalized banks and with a presence in the credit default swap market. Horseraces suggest that firm size may be a more important and robust vulnerability indicator than balance sheet characteristics. Our results imply that the tightening of credit market conditions during the crisis, coupled with limited credit market access especially among micro, small, and medium firms, may have contributed to the large and persistent drop in aggregate TFP.

Germany --- Accounting --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Production, Pricing, and Market Structure --- Size Distribution of Firms --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Financial Crises --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Total factor productivity --- Credit default swap --- Credit --- Financial statements --- Financial crises --- Industrial productivity --- Finance, Public

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Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.

Natural disasters --- Natural calamities --- Disasters --- Economic aspects --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Natural Disasters --- Demography --- Valuation of Environmental Effects --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Environment and Growth --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Demographic Economics: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Population & demography --- Population and demographics --- Fiscal stance --- Trade balance --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Environment --- Fiscal policy --- International trade --- External debt --- Population --- Balance of trade --- Debts, External --- Solomon Islands