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This paper examines how cities and regions within countries are likely to adjust to trade openness and improved connectivity driven by large transport investments from China's Belt and Road Initiative. The paper presents a quantitative economic geography model alongside spatially detailed information on the location of people, economic activity, and transport costs to international gateways in Central Asia to identify which places are likely to gain and which places are likely to lose. The findings are that urban hubs near border crossings will disproportionately gain while farther out regions with little comparative advantage will be relative losers. Complementary investments in domestic transport networks and trade facilitation are complementary policies and can help in spatially spreading the benefits. However, barriers to domestic labor mobility exacerbate spatial inequalities whilst dampening overall welfare.
Connectivity --- Geospatial Economics --- International Economics and Trade --- Labor Mobility --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Territorial Development --- Trade Liberalization --- Transport --- Transport Corridors --- Urban Hubs
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Household surveys remain underutilized for understanding transport choices such as expenditure level and composition, the economic impacts of road accidents, and the economic and distributional impacts of environmental policies such as vehicle restrictions or fuel taxes. This paper reviews more than 30 Living Standards Measurement Study surveys conducted after 2010, non-Living Standards Measurement Study surveys, and two World Bank harmonized household survey databases, to compile and categorize an extensive list of transport-related questions. The paper discusses current limitations in using Living Standards Measurement Study household surveys. Most of the transport-related questions in the Living Standards Measurement Study survey collection are not harmonized across years and countries. Consistent and more detailed data on road accidents and the type and use of vehicles should be added to help design and evaluate road safety and climate policies. A standard set of guidelines and sample questions to be integrated into future household surveys is therefore provided.
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This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and subnational economic units and their connectivity to each other and the rest of the world. Aggregate real income gains from the Belt Road Initiative range from less than 2 percent of regional income if adjustment mechanisms take the form of conventional Armington and monopolistic competition, to around 3 percent if there are localization economies of scale and labor mobility. In the latter case, there are sizeable geographical variations in impact, with some areas developing clusters of economic activity with income increases of as much as 12 percent and a doubling of local populations, while other areas stagnate or even decline.
Connectivity --- Economic Geography --- International Economics and Trade --- Labor Mobility --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Regional Integration --- Spatial Modeling --- Trade and Transport --- Transport Infrastructure
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