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Money market. Capital market

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There is reliable evidence that simple rules used by traders have some predictive value over the future movement of foreign exchange prices. This paper will review some of this evidence and discuss the economic magnitude of this predictability. The profitability of these trading rules will then be analyzed in connection with central bank activity using intervention data from the Federal Reserve. The objective is to find out to what extent foreign exchange predictability can be confined to periods of central bank activity in the foreign exchange market. The results indicate that after removing periods in which the Federal Reserve is active, exchange rate predictability is dramatically reduced.

Industrial productivity.

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This paper explores the time series implications of introducing credit constraints into a production based asset pricing model. Simulations are performed choosing parameter values which generate reasonable values for aggregate fluctuations. These results show that mean reversion in simulated returns series, measured by variance ration tests, is enhanced with the introduction of binding credit constraints. Without these constraints there is very little evidence of mean reversion. This is consistent with financial market data where the weak evidence for mean reversion is stronger in small firm returns. Other tests are run on the simulated series including checking the standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. These other tests do not show strong differences between the constrained and unconstrained firms in the model.

Analysis of variance.

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This special issue of the Journal of Economics and Statistics is devoted to the use of agent-based models for economic policy advice. It presents a collection of research papers in different fields of applications. Special emphasis is laid on discussing the potential and possible limitations of agent-based models for economic policy advice. The editorial provides an overview on the role of agent-based modeling in economic policy referring also to the papers presented. Furthermore, it highlights the strength of the approach, i.e., the explicit microfoundation and the modeling of heterogenous agents. Finally, we also report on current limitations of the method with regard to economic policy advice and point at some areas deserving further research.

Economic policy. --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Economics --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Agenten-basierte Simulationsmodelle. --- Finanzmärkte. --- Ökonomische Politikberatung.