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With the end of the oil economy in 2011, Sudan's regime of subsidies for wheat and fuel became increasingly unsustainable. The loss of oil revenues in the wake of the secession of South Sudan in 2011 resulted in severe macroeconomic imbalances, including a substantial budget deficit, pressure on the exchange rate, increases in the inflation rate, and the emergence of a system of multiple exchange rates. Despite an increase in the fiscal cost of these subsidies due to downward pressure on the Sudanese Pound (SDG) and except for incremental price hikes for electricity and fuel, both wheat and fuel subsidies remained largely in place until the end of last year. This policy note aims to estimate the level and incidence of welfare effects of increasing staple food prices between October 2017 and July 2018. Combining household-level data from the first round of the National Household Budget and Poverty Survey 2014/15 and monthly wholesale prices collected in up to six major markets throughout the country, this note evaluates the distributional effects of recent price hikes. Future subsidy reforms should pay close attention to typical food price fluctuations over the year: ideally, reforms are implemented shortly after sowing and before the main harvest season. Food prices typically fluctuate substantially in Sudan over the course of the year. Fuel subsidy reforms should be timed to take advantage of this pattern, which would most likely mean that they should be initiated directly after the sowing season and before the beginning of the harvest season so that prices remain stable at this point.
Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agriculture --- Consumption --- Food Security --- Inequality --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Taxation and Subsidies
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Anesthesia in cardiology --- Heart --- Anesthesiology --- Heart --- Monitoring, Physiologic --- Congresses. --- Surgery --- Congresses. --- Congresses. --- Drug effects --- Congresses. --- Congresses.
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Knowledge of the fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) seasonality and variability contributes to our understanding of the drivers of global warming and how the ocean slows down the CO2 increase in the atmosphere. In this thesis, 15 years of surface fCO2 data has been analyzed and the fCO2 seasonality as well as variability within months between western Norwegian coastal waters and the open northern North Sea have been compared. Furthermore, the drivers of the fCO2 change in the surface area were examined by means of a decomposition analysis. fCO2 values were the highest in the autumn and winter months, and the lowest in spring and summer for both areas. The coastal area had much larger fCO2 fluctuations throughout the seasons due to influence of freshwater. Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) was found to be the main driver for the observed fCO2 seasonality and variability in both areas in spring and summer due to phytoplankton blooms. In autumn, Total Alkalinity (TA) also played a large role, while salinity did not have any significant effect on the variability in any parts of the year. In conclusion, biological processes had a much larger impact on fCO2 variability over seasons than changes in temperature and salinity.
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Using the most recent household survey data, this paper examines the characteristics of Sudan's labor market as it relates to poverty outcomes. Several important aspects of the labor market are analyzed, including the relationship between labor market indicators and the demographic structure of the population, geographic location, education, and gender. It highlights the significant differences in labor market outcomes depending on the structure and distribution of the population and Sudan's labor market's many challenges across different dimensions, including demography, gender, and geography. The four key messages can be summarized as follows: first, Sudan is at the verge of entering the earl-dividend stage of the demographic transition. Sudan's population, while still very young, is on track to enter into the early-dividend stage of the demographic transition within just a few years, raising the stakes for job creation and investment in human capita. Second, while we find evidence for an increase in employment and labor force participation at the national level, this increase seems to be driven by seasonal labor in agriculture and increasing economic hardship, respectively. In urban areas, however, unemployment increased sharply, especially among youth. And despite the overall increase in employment and labor force participation, Sudan's labor market still underperforms in comparison to its peers. Third, Sudan's labor market is characterized by large gender disparities, including in terms of employment opportunities and pay. Finally, we find no signs of the beginnings of a structural transformation over the time-period author study; agriculture remains the mainstay of a large majority of employed Sudanese. Rather, labor productivity and real wages outside of agriculture declined markedly between 2009 and 2014, especially in sectors with links to the oil economy. The paper offers policy insights to enhance the role of the labor market in reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity in Sudan, key among which are 1) encouraging private sector growth, 2) overcoming gender discrimination in the labor market, 3) investing in agriculture and re-storing price incentives, and 4) further expanding access to quality education.
Access and Equity in Basic Education --- Agricultural Sector Economics --- Agriculture --- Education --- Food Security --- Gender --- Incentives --- Inequality --- Labor Market --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Labor Markets --- Social Protections and Labor
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Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) in developing countries are typically considered to be severely credit constrained. Additionally, high business risks may partly explain why capital stocks of MSEs remain low. This article analyzes the determinants of capital stocks of MSEs in poor economies focusing on credit constraints and risk. The analysis is based on a unique, albeit cross sectional but backward looking, micro data set on MSEs covering the economic capitals of seven West-African countries. The main result is that capital market imperfections indeed seem to explain an important part of the variation in capital stocks in the early lifetime of MSEs. Furthermore, the analyses show that risk plays a key role for capital accumulation. Risk-averse individuals seem to adjust their initially low capital stocks upwards when enterprises grow older. MSEs in risky activities owned by wealthy individuals even seem to over-invest when they start their business and adjust capital stocks downwards subsequently. As other firms simultaneously suffer from capital shortages, such behavior may imply large inefficiencies.
Access to Finance --- Capacity Building --- Capital Costs --- Capital Markets --- Capital Requirements --- Collateral --- Debt Markets --- Developing Countries --- Economic Development --- Entrepreneurs --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Gdp --- Human Capital --- Insurance --- Job Creation --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market Economy --- Microcredit --- Microenterprises --- Moneylenders --- Moral Hazard --- Political Economy --- Private Sector Development --- Profitability --- Purchasing Power --- Purchasing Power Parity --- Risk Aversion --- Savings --- Small and Medium Size Enterprises
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Small area poverty maps allow for the design of policies based on spatial differences in welfare. They are typically estimated based on a consumption survey reporting on poverty and a census providing the spatial disaggregation. This paper presents a new method which allows for the estimation of up-to-date small area poverty maps when only a dated census and a more recent survey are available and predictors and structural parameters are subject to drift over time, a situation commonly encountered in practice. Instead of using survey variables to explain consumption in the survey, the new approach uses variables constructed from the census. The proposed estimator has fewer data requirements and weaker assumptions than common small area poverty map estimators. Applications to simulated data and to poverty estimation in Brazil show an overall good performance.
Censuses --- Education --- Educational Sciences --- Employment and Unemployment --- Inequality --- Population Estimates --- Poverty --- Poverty Assessment --- Poverty Diagnostics --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Small Area Estimation --- Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapps --- Social Protections and Labor
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