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This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared with that of forecasts using alternative techniques, including time series and econometric models, as well as judgemental forecasts. The paper also explores the predictive power of futures prices by comparing the forecasting accuracy of end-of-month prices with weekly and monthly averages, using a variety of different weighting schemes. Finally, the paper investigates whether the forecasts from using futures prices can be improved by incorporating information from other forecasting techniques.

Commodities --- Derivative securities --- Diffusion Processes --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Econometric analysis --- Econometric Modeling: General --- Econometric models --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Econometrics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Financial markets --- Futures markets --- Futures --- General Economics: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Institutional Investors --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Energy --- Investments: Futures --- Macroeconomics --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Pension Funds --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Prices --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Time-Series Models --- United States

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This paper explores the determinants of long-term government bond yields in the Group of Seven (G-7) economies and analyzes the factors that could explain the conundrum of very low rates in the face of a variety of adverse factors in recent years. In particular, the paper focuses on the deteriorating fiscal position in the G-7 economies and enquires which factors could have offset their impact on long-term interest rates, and how sustainable they are likely to be. A model of interest rate determination is elaborated and estimated for the G-7, with explicit emphasis on capital flows and public savings. The results suggest a high likelihood of a substantial impact of the weaker budgetary positions in the G-7 on global interest rates when the offsetting unprecedented capital flows slow down.

Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy. --- Interest rates. --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Money market rates --- Rate of interest --- Rates, Interest --- Government policy --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Interest --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Public Finance --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Public finance & taxation --- Long term interest rates --- Real interest rates --- Government debt management --- Fiscal policy --- Interest rates --- Prices --- Debts, Public --- United States

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This paper examines the extent to which there has been convergence in real per capita incomes across developing countries during the last two decades. In the analysis particular emphasis is placed on the separate roles played by private and public sector investment in determining both the extent and the speed of convergence. The paper also considers the importance of the stock of human capital, trade orientation, and foreign direct investment in the long-run growth process. Empirical tests are carried out for a large sample of 95 developing countries over the period 1970-90. The results provide support for the notion of differential effects of public and private investment on long-term growth, as well as for the convergence hypothesis.

Investments: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Demography --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & migration geography --- Public investment spending --- Private investment --- Income --- Human capital --- Population growth --- Public investments --- Saving and investment --- Population --- Income economics

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This paper examines two important issues for a small high-inflation open economy with trade controls where the government implements an exchange-rate based stabilization program: first, the extent to which the degree of openness of the economy influences the probability of success of the program; and second, the conditions under which a trade reform, implemented in conjunction with the stabilization program, will increase the probability that stabilization will be successful. The paper shows that in an economy with high export and import price elasticities, structural reforms to increase openness can be important in determining the success of the program.

Balance of trade --- Commercial policy --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Currency --- Deflation --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Inflation --- International economics --- International Trade Organizations --- Macroeconomics --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Prices --- Public finance & taxation --- Real exchange rates --- Stabilization --- Tariff --- Tariffs --- Taxation --- Trade balance --- Trade liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Treasury Policy

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This paper discusses a "pure" form of financial contagion, unrelated to economic fundamentals - investors' shifting appetite for risk. It provides an analytical framework for identifying changes in investors' risk appetite and discusses whether it is possible to directly measure them in a way that can enable policy makers to differentiate between financial contagion and domestic fundamentals as the immediate source of a crisis. Daily measures of risk appetite are computed and their usefulness in predicting financial crises is assessed.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Bankruptcy --- Liquidation --- Financial Crises --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- International Financial Markets --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Financial crises --- Currencies --- Systemic crises --- Yield curve --- Currency markets --- Money --- Financial services --- Financial markets --- Interest rates --- Foreign exchange market --- United States