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The paper uses a unique survey of remittance-receiving individuals from Tajikistan to study the impact of policy awareness on consumer behavior. The results show that knowledge of deposit insurance encourages the use of formal channels for transmitting remittances and reduces dollarization. Given the size and importance of remittances in Tajikistan, improving financial literacy and better publicizing details of the social safety net may encourage a more frequent use of formal channels for transferring remittances and reduce reliance on foreign exchange for transaction purposes. This is likely to improve bank profitability, enhance financial stability, and improve access to finance.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Remittances --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Currencies --- Deposit insurance --- Balance of payments --- Money --- Dollarization --- Monetary policy --- Financial crises --- International finance --- Banks and banking --- Crisis management --- Tajikistan, Republic of
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Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels of macroeconomic and financial data can be captured by relatively few common unobserved factors. Similarly, the dynamics in DSGE models are often governed by a handful of state variables and exogenous processes such as preference and/or technology shocks. Boivin and Giannoni(2006) combine a DSGE and a factor model into a data-rich DSGE model, in which DSGE states are factors and factor dynamics are subject to DSGE model implied restrictions. We compare a data-richDSGE model with a standard New Keynesian core to an empirical dynamic factor model by estimating both on a rich panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial data compiled by Stock and Watson (2008).We find that the spaces spanned by the empirical factors and by the data-rich DSGE model states are very close. This proximity allows us to propagate monetary policy and technology innovations in an otherwise non-structural dynamic factor model to obtain predictions for many more series than just a handful of traditional macro variables, including measures of real activity, price indices, labor market indicators, interest rate spreads, money and credit stocks, and exchange rates.
Macroeconomics --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Inflation --- Investments: Stocks --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Classification Methods --- Cluster Analysis --- Principal Components --- Factor Models --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Investment & securities --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models --- Factor models --- Stocks --- Consumption --- Econometric analysis --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- National accounts --- Econometric models --- Economics --- United States
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When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon Boivin and Giannoni (2006), we relax these two assumptions and estimate a fairly simple monetary DSGE model on a richer data set. Using post-1983 U.S.data on real output, inflation, nominal interest rates, measures of inverse money velocity, and a large panel of informational series, we compare the data-rich DSGE model with the regular - few observables, perfect measurement - DSGE model in terms of deep parameter estimates, propagation of monetary policy and technology shocks and sources of business cycle fluctuations. We document that the data-rich DSGE model generates a higher implied duration of Calvo price contracts and a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. To reduce the computational costs of the likelihood-based estimation, we employed a novel speedup as in Jungbacker and Koopman (2008) and achieved the time savings of 60 percent.
Monetary policy --- Stochastic analysis --- Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Analysis, Stochastic --- Mathematical analysis --- Stochastic processes --- Econometric models. --- Government policy --- Econometrics --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: General --- Macroeconomics --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Demand for Money --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Monetary economics --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models --- Demand for money --- Monetary base --- Industrial production --- Econometric analysis --- Prices --- Money --- Econometric models --- Money supply --- Industries --- United States
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This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to the state variables of the DSGE model. Predictions for the non-core variables are obtained by applying their measurement equations to DSGE model-generated forecasts of the state variables. Using a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, we apply our approach to generate and evaluate recursive forecasts for PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate, and housing starts along with predictions for the seven variables that have been used to estimate the DSGE model.
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In this paper, we employ both calibration and modern (Bayesian) estimation methods to assess the role of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks in generating fluctuations in hours. Using a neoclassical stochastic growth model, we show how answers are shaped by the identification strategies and not by the statistical approaches. The crucial parameter is the labor supply elasticity. Both a calibration procedure that uses modern assessments of the Frisch elasticity and the estimation procedures result in technology shocks accounting for 2% to 9% of the variation in hours worked in the data. We infer that we should be talking more about identification and less about the choice of particular quantitative approaches.
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This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to the state variables of the DSGE model. Predictions for the non-core variables are obtained by applying their measurement equations to DSGE model-generated forecasts of the state variables. Using a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, we apply our approach to generate and evaluate recursive forecasts for PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, the unemployment rate, and housing starts along with predictions for the seven variables that have been used to estimate the DSGE model.
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In this paper, we employ both calibration and modern (Bayesian) estimation methods to assess the role of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks in generating fluctuations in hours. Using a neoclassical stochastic growth model, we show how answers are shaped by the identification strategies and not by the statistical approaches. The crucial parameter is the labor supply elasticity. Both a calibration procedure that uses modern assessments of the Frisch elasticity and the estimation procedures result in technology shocks accounting for 2% to 9% of the variation in hours worked in the data. We infer that we should be talking more about identification and less about the choice of particular quantitative approaches.
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