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We study the optimal design of a disinflation plan by a planner who lacks commitment. Having announced a plan, the Central banker faces a tradeoff between surprise inflation and building reputation, defined as the private sector's belief that the Central bank is committed to the plan. Some plans are harder to sustain: the planner recognizes that paving out future grounds with temptation leads the way for a negative drift of reputation in equilibrium. Plans that successfully create low inflationary expectations balance promises of lower inflation with dynamic incentives that make them more credible. When announcing the disinflation plan, the planner takes into account these anticipated interactions. We find that, even in the zero reputation limit, a gradual disinflation is preferred despite the absence of inflation inertia in the private economy.
Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Taxation --- Monetary Policy --- Stochastic and Dynamic Games --- Evolutionary Games --- Repeated Games --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Inflation targeting --- Tax incentives --- Disinflation --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- United States
Choose an application
We study the optimal design of a disinflation plan by a planner who lacks commitment. Having announced a plan, the Central banker faces a tradeoff between surprise inflation and building reputation, defined as the private sector's belief that the Central bank is committed to the plan. Some plans are harder to sustain: the planner recognizes that paving out future grounds with temptation leads the way for a negative drift of reputation in equilibrium. Plans that successfully create low inflationary expectations balance promises of lower inflation with dynamic incentives that make them more credible. When announcing the disinflation plan, the planner takes into account these anticipated interactions. We find that, even in the zero reputation limit, a gradual disinflation is preferred despite the absence of inflation inertia in the private economy.
United States --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Taxation --- Monetary Policy --- Stochastic and Dynamic Games --- Evolutionary Games --- Repeated Games --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Inflation targeting --- Tax incentives --- Disinflation --- Prices --- Monetary policy
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