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Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.

International trade. --- External trade --- Foreign commerce --- Foreign trade --- Global commerce --- Global trade --- Trade, International --- World trade --- Commerce --- International economic relations --- Non-traded goods --- International trade --- E-books --- Exports and Imports --- Economic Theory --- Natural Disasters --- Classification Methods --- Cluster Analysis --- Principal Components --- Factor Models --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Network Formation and Analysis: Theory --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- International economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Natural disasters --- Supply shocks --- Imports --- Exports --- Export performance --- Economic theory --- Environment --- Supply and demand --- Japan

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We use data on 1,294 banks in Central and Eastern Europe to analyze how bank ownership and creditor coordination in the form of the Vienna Initiative affected credit growth during the 2008–09 crisis. As part of the Vienna Initiative western European banks signed country-specific commitment letters in which they pledged to maintain exposures and to support their subsidiaries in Central and Eastern Europe. We show that both domestic and foreign banks sharply curtailed credit during the crisis, but that foreign banks that participated in the Vienna Initiative were relatively stable lenders. We find no evidence of negative spillovers from countries where banks signed commitment letters to countries where they did not.

Monetary policy --- Finance --- Banks and banking, Foreign --- Credit --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Econometric models. --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Borrowing --- Money --- Loans --- Foreign banks and banking --- Offshore banking (Finance) --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Central bank policy rate --- Monetary base --- Output gap --- Personal income --- Prices --- Financial services --- Production --- National accounts --- Interest rates --- Money supply --- Economic theory --- Income --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Risk Management --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- Financial Crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Foreign banks --- Bank credit --- Financial institutions --- Banks and banking --- India --- Serbia, Republic of --- Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models

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The financial sectors of the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) countries should play an important role in supporting climate-related policies for the region. The sectors are vulnerable to downside risks from climate-related shocks and at the same time offer the potential to help fill the financing gap for needed adaptation and mitigation strategies. Successful approaches to climate change in the region therefore need to coherently integrate financial sector strategies within the overall policy framework to meet this important challenge. To this end, policymakers must ensure that financial sectors are prepared for a green future. This means enhancing the resilience of banks to physical and transition risks from climate change and boosting the capacity of insurance sectors to speed recovery from climate-related disasters and help offset economic costs. Moreover, policies are needed to foster an enabling environment for private green finance, attract investment from other official entities, such as sovereign wealth funds (SWF), and facilitate support from international financial institutions and multilateral development banks. In the near term, policy efforts should center around better understanding and measuring climate-related risks. This includes prioritizing the implementation of methodologies for quantifying and reporting such risks, promoting their transparent disclosure by financial institutions, and strengthening frameworks for their forecasting and analyzing. Over the medium term, governments can play an important role in supporting green finance through incentives and market mechanisms, phasing-out energy subsidies, and introducing new tools and markets (such as carbon pricing frameworks), which can stimulate demand for investment in green technologies. The paper offers a unique regional perspective on climate risks in ME&CA's financial sectors and outlines the road ahead in transitioning to a green future. It is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on banking institutions in the region and assess the capacity of insurance in mitigating climate-related damages and losses. It contributes to the existing literature by synthesizing the size and nature of regional financing needs for adaptation and mitigation and discussing both opportunities and challenges for the development of green finance. The paper's policy recommendations provide guidance to policymakers on how to develop regulatory responses to enhance financial sustainability amid climate change risks.

Climate change --- Climate finance --- Climate --- Climatic changes --- Economics --- Emissions trading --- Environment --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental economics --- Environmental Economics: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Financial services industry --- Global Warming --- Green finance / sustainable finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- International agencies --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Economics --- International institutions --- International organization --- International Organizations --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Natural Disasters --- Natural disasters --- Political Economy --- Political economy --- Public Policy