Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

COVID-19 is likely to have a large impact on the welfare of Tunisian households. First, some individuals might be more vulnerable to contracting the disease because their living conditions or jobs make them more susceptible to meeting others or practicing social distancing. Lack of adequate access to health insurance, overcrowded living conditions, and low access to water at home are reasons that make the Tunisian poor more susceptible to getting infected or not being able to seek health care in the event that they contract COVID-19. In addition, the elderly in the poorest households could be more susceptible to COVID-19 due to higher prevalence of intergenerational households among the poor. Second, many sectors of the labor market have experienced an economic slowdown, and those employed in these sectors are likely to experience disproportionate effects. Combining the labor shock and price shock simultaneously, the simulations in this paper show an increase in poverty of 7.3 percentage points under a more optimistic scenario and 11.9 percentage points under the pessimistic scenario, and individuals in sectors such as tourism and construction are expected to fall into poverty due to COVID-19. The paper estimates that the government's compensatory measures targeted toward the hardest hit are expected to mitigate the increase in poverty. Specifically, the increase in poverty will be 6.5 percentage points under the optimistic scenario if mitigation measures are in place vis-a-vis in their absence, when the increase in poverty is 7.3 percentage points.

Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Consumption --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Employment and Unemployment --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Welfare --- Inequality --- Labor Income --- Labor Markets --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Pandemic Impact --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

E-books

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Since the early 1990s, some developing countries have experienced a coincidence of rising exports'especially those related to global value chains-and improved labor market outcomes. During 2000-10, rising trade was associated with falling poverty and inequality in many developing countries. However, the Arab Republic of Egypt was not one of these countries, although it signed several trade agreements. The lack of trade-related improvements in labor market outcomes-including poverty, inequality, average wage levels, informality, and female labor force participation-could be explained by at least two possibilities. First, it is possible that trade agreements did not produce the same increase in trade for Egypt as for other countries. Second, it is possible that exports do not generate the same kinds of changes in labor market outcomes as experienced in other countries. After presenting the trends in key labor market outcomes over 2000-19, this paper evaluates both hypotheses. Using a gravity model approach, the results suggest that the changes in Egypt's exports following trade agreements are above internationally estimated averages. Second, the results from a Bartik approach find no significant relationship between rising exports and wages, informality, or female labor force participation. Additional analysis shows that Egypt's average wage levels are among the highest among countries that export the same goods exported by Egypt, possibly suggesting that Egypt has a relatively weak comparative advantage in currently exported goods, and thus might need to rethink its export basket.

Bartik Approach --- Export Competitiveness --- Female Labor Force Participation --- Global Value Chain --- Gravity Model --- Inequality --- Informality --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade --- Labor Market --- Poverty --- Social Protections and Labor --- Trade Agreement --- Trade Policy --- Wages --- Wages, Compensation and Benefits