Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.

Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Statistics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Finance Forecasting and Simulation --- International Financial Markets --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- General Aggregative Models: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Finance --- Capital flows --- Stocks --- Balance of payments statistics --- Flow of funds --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Balance of payments --- Financial institutions --- Economic and financial statistics --- National accounts --- Financial markets --- Capital movements --- Financial services industry --- South Africa

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.

South Africa --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Statistics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Finance Forecasting and Simulation --- International Financial Markets --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- General Aggregative Models: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Finance --- Capital flows --- Stocks --- Balance of payments statistics --- Flow of funds --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Balance of payments --- Financial institutions --- Economic and financial statistics --- National accounts --- Financial markets --- Capital movements --- Financial services industry

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper proposes an easy-to-follow approach to track merchandise trade using vessel data and applies it to Pacific island countries. Pacific islands rely heavily on imports and maritime transport for trade. They are also highly vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters that pose risks to ports and supply chains. Using satellite-based vessel tracking data from the UN Global Platform, we construct daily indicators of port and trade activity for Pacific island countries. The algorithm significantly advances estimation techniques of previous studies, particularly by employing ways to overcome challenges with the estimation of cargo payloads, using detailed information on shipping liner schedules to validate port calls, and applying country-specific information to define port boundaries. The approach can complement and help fill gaps in official data, provide early warning signs of turning points in economic activity, and assist policymakers and international organizations to monitor and provide timely responses to shocks (e.g., COVID-19).

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Natural Disasters --- Diseases: Contagious --- Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism --- Environmental Economics --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Trade: General --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Health Behavior --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Sports --- Gambling --- Restaurants --- Recreation --- Tourism --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Natural disasters --- Infectious & contagious diseases --- Hospitality, leisure & tourism industries --- Climate change --- Imports --- International trade --- Environment --- COVID-19 --- Health --- Trade balance --- Economic sectors --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Communicable diseases --- Balance of trade --- Fiji, Republic of

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.

Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Monetary Policy --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Capital flows --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Capital account --- Balance of payments --- Capital flow management --- Financial markets --- Capital movements --- Financial services industry --- United States

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper reviews the role of benchmark-driven investments in EM local bond markets. We provide an overview of how key EM bond benchmark indices are constructed, how they affect the behavior of investment funds, and what are the likely implications for capital flows and policy-making. Several methods are presented suggesting that the amount of assets benchmarked against widely followed EM local-currency bond indices have risen fivefold since the mid-2000s to around $300 billion. Our review suggests that the benefits of index membership may be tempered by portfolio outflow risks for some countries. This is because benchmark-driven investments may increase the importance of external factors at the expense of domestic factors, raising the risks of outflows unrelated to recipient country fundamentals. Some countries may be disproportionately exposed to these risks, reflecting the way the indices are constructed.

United States --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Crises --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Bonds --- Mutual funds --- Securities markets --- Capital flows --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Balance of payments --- Financial services industry --- Capital market --- Capital movements