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The paper presents a simple framework for the analysis of the macroeconomic implications of de-cashing. Defined as replacing paper currency with convertible deposits, de-cashing would affect all key macroeconomic sectors. The overall macreconomic impact of de-cashing would depend on the balance of growth-enhancing and growth-constraining factors. Starting from a traditional saving-investment balance, the paper develops a four-sector macroeconomic framework. It is purely illustrative and is designed to provide a roadmap for a systematic evaluation of de-cashing. The framework is disaggregated into the real, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors and potential implications of de-cashing are then identified in each sector. Finally, the paper draws a balance on possible positive and negative macroeconomic implications of de-cashing, and proposes policies capable of augmenting its economic and social benefits, while reducing potential costs.
Macroeconomics. --- Economics --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Money and Interest Rates: General --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Globalization: Finance --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Distributed ledgers --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Currencies --- Digital currencies --- Revenue administration --- Current account --- Money --- Technology --- Balance of payments --- Monetary base --- Banks and banking --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Revenue --- Money supply --- United States
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The paper examines the poverty-reducing and distributional characteristics of Djibouti’s economic growth, and discusses policies that might help make growth more inclusive. It covers the period between 2002 and 2013, for which comparable household surveys are available. The main findings are that while in the past decade the overall level of poverty in Djibouti declined, there have been no clear signs of improvements in either equality or growth inclusiveness. Growth has not been inclusive and benefitted mainly those in the upper part of the income distribution. These conclusions should be treated as indicative. Progress in poverty reduction and inclusiveness would require not only sustained high growth but also the creation of opportunities in sectors with high earning potential for the poor. Better targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness.
Economic development. --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Economic development --- E-books --- Macroeconomics --- Social Services and Welfare --- Demography --- Poverty and Homelessness --- Intertemporal Choice and Growth: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Measurement and Analysis of Poverty --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Demographic Economics: General --- Poverty & precarity --- Social welfare & social services --- Population & demography --- Poverty --- Income inequality --- Poverty reduction --- Population and demographics --- Income --- National accounts --- Income distribution --- Population --- Djibouti
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The paper suggests an econometric methodology for testing the effectiveness of reforms implemented in one major step, i.e., discrete reforms. The methodology is based on the exogeneity properties of variables in an econometric model. The paper specifies the preconditions for setting up an appropriate model; suggests an economic interpretation of the tests for weak, strong, and superexogeneity; and illustrates this methodology by applying it to two cases of instantaneous reforms. The exogeneity properties of variables in a correctly specified econometric model may help uncover information on the preparation, implementation, and the outcome of such reforms, which could be useful for future policy advice.
Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Econometric Modeling: General --- Econometric and Statistical Methods: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Econometric models --- Exchange rate unification --- Exchange rates --- Econometric analysis --- Exchange rate arrangements --- United Kingdom
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The paper seeks to establish a link between the liberalization of trade in financial services undertaken by countries under the WTO and the stability of their financial systems. The paper concludes that liberalization has generally been conducive to stability because of the mutually reinforcing nature of existing international rules and practices. Financial stability and efficiency, which should be ultimate goals of further liberalization, can be ensured by taking advantage of coherent policy advice and the application of existing multilateral mechanisms-in particular, the WTO negotiations and the IMF/World Bank financial sector assessment program.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International Business Cycles --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Finance --- International economics --- Financial services --- Trade in services --- Financial sector stability --- Capital flows --- Financial sector --- International trade --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Balance of payments --- Economic sectors --- Financial services industry --- Balance of trade --- Capital movements --- United States
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The paper explores empirically the links between the WTO-driven liberalization of trade in financial services and the stability of national financial systems. Econometric testing of indicators intended to proxy financial sector stability-subdivided into exchange rate and banking sector stability-suggests that opening of the financial sector is an efficient policy instrument at the disposal of the authorities for achieving a variety of macroeconomic goals. While liberalization is found to be broadly conducive to stability, the outcome of liberalization on exchange rate stability is less predictable than on banking sector stability.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Industries: Financial Services --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International Business Cycles --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Finance --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Financial services --- Financial sector stability --- Trade in services --- Financial sector --- Exchange rate stability --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- International trade --- Economic sectors --- Financial services industry --- Balance of trade --- United States
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The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.
Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Energy: General --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Fiscal Policy --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Oil --- Oil prices --- Current account --- Current account balance --- Fiscal stance --- Commodities --- Balance of payments --- Fiscal policy --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Saudi Arabia
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The paper reviews the experience of financial reforms in Sudan with a view to assessing their macroeconomic impact and to shedding light on the question why such reforms have not yet brought about visible improvements in financial intermediation. The paper concludes that regardless of the progress achieved in recent years, deficiencies in the reform design, institutional weaknesses, shallow financial markets, shortcomings of the Islamic mode of finance, and strong seasonality remain key factors that constrain financial intermediation. Additional efforts, in particular in bank restructuring, credit instrument design, monetary policy management, and prudential regulation are needed to address the systemic problems of the financial sector and to make it capable of supporting private sector growth.
Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Monetary Policy --- Insurance --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Monetary base --- Credit --- Commercial banks --- Currencies --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Monetary policy instruments --- Monetary policy --- Banks and banking --- Money supply --- Sudan
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The paper models export taxation of a primary commodity in a large country under two hypotheses about the structure of its export market. The first is perfect competition among exporters, where there is an indefinite number of buyers of the local product and at least a partial pass-through of international prices to local producers. The second is an oligopsony, a market structure in some low-income countries where numerous scattered local producers face a few powerful exporters that can influence domestic prices. For both hypotheses, export taxation can be justified on efficiency grounds only for the country that adopts the tax. Designed correctly, a low export tax may be welfare-enhancing for that country but will always be welfare-reducing for its trading partners. The models of export taxation for both hypotheses are calibrated for the illustrative case of cocoa exports from Côte d’Ivoire.
Export duties. --- Export marketing. --- International marketing --- Overseas marketing --- Marketing --- Export taxes --- Exports --- Tariff --- Taxation --- Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Agriculture: General --- Trade: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Tariffs --- Agricultural commodities --- Demand elasticity --- Export prices --- Farm produce --- Elasticity --- Economics --- Côte d'Ivoire
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The paper examines Senegal’s growth performance from the perspective of its povertyreducing and distributional characteristics, and discusses policies that might help make growth more inclusive. The main findings are that poverty has fallen in the last two decades, but poverty reduction has slowed in recent years. Although available indicators sometimes give conflicting signals on distributional shifts, people in the middle of the income distribution have received the most benefit, mainly in urban areas. Further progress in poverty reduction and inclusiveness would require sustained high growth and exploration of growth opportunities in the sectors with high earning potential for the poor. Better-targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness.
Income distribution --- Poverty --- Destitution --- Wealth --- Basic needs --- Begging --- Poor --- Subsistence economy --- Distribution of income --- Income inequality --- Inequality of income --- Distribution (Economic theory) --- Disposable income --- Government policy --- Senegal --- Economic policy. --- Macroeconomics --- Social Services and Welfare --- Poverty and Homelessness --- Demography --- Intertemporal Choice and Growth: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Measurement and Analysis of Poverty --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Demographic Economics: General --- Poverty & precarity --- Social welfare & social services --- Population & demography --- Poverty reduction --- Income --- Consumption --- National accounts --- Population and demographics --- Economics --- Population
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The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is a currency union with a fixed exchange rate and limited capital mobility and, therefore, an independent monetary policy in the short run. The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) is conducting the single monetary policy with the main goal of preserving price stability and supporting economic growth. However, the effectiveness of its monetary policy remains low, with a weak reaction of market interest rates and inflation to BCEAO’s policy actions. The paper concludes that, while the institutional setup and the instruments of monetary policy are adequate, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy remains constrained by liquidity management practices, shallow and segmented financial markets, and interest rate rigidities. To improve the effectiveness of monetary policy the BCEAO should be more proactive in determining the stance of fiscal policies, develop financial markets, and liberalize controlled interest rates. The BCEAO is undertaking important reforms in these directions.
Banks and banking -- Islands of the Pacific. --- Economic development -- Islands of the Pacific. --- Interest rates -- Islands of the Pacific. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Migration --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Economic Development: Human Resources --- Human Development --- Income Distribution --- Migration --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Central bank policy rate --- Interbank rates --- Liquidity --- Financial services --- Asset and liability management --- Prices --- Monetary policy instruments --- Monetary policy --- Interest rates --- Economics --- Banks and banking --- Burkina Faso
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