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The Macroeconomics of De-Cashing
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ISSN: 10185941 ISBN: 1475589395 9781475589399 1475589255 9781475589252 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper presents a simple framework for the analysis of the macroeconomic implications of de-cashing. Defined as replacing paper currency with convertible deposits, de-cashing would affect all key macroeconomic sectors. The overall macreconomic impact of de-cashing would depend on the balance of growth-enhancing and growth-constraining factors. Starting from a traditional saving-investment balance, the paper develops a four-sector macroeconomic framework. It is purely illustrative and is designed to provide a roadmap for a systematic evaluation of de-cashing. The framework is disaggregated into the real, fiscal, monetary, and external sectors and potential implications of de-cashing are then identified in each sector. Finally, the paper draws a balance on possible positive and negative macroeconomic implications of de-cashing, and proposes policies capable of augmenting its economic and social benefits, while reducing potential costs.


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Growth Inclusiveness in Djibouti
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ISSN: 10185941 ISBN: 1475594909 9781475594904 1475594720 9781475594720 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper examines the poverty-reducing and distributional characteristics of Djibouti’s economic growth, and discusses policies that might help make growth more inclusive. It covers the period between 2002 and 2013, for which comparable household surveys are available. The main findings are that while in the past decade the overall level of poverty in Djibouti declined, there have been no clear signs of improvements in either equality or growth inclusiveness. Growth has not been inclusive and benefitted mainly those in the upper part of the income distribution. These conclusions should be treated as indicative. Progress in poverty reduction and inclusiveness would require not only sustained high growth but also the creation of opportunities in sectors with high earning potential for the poor. Better targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness.


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Econometric Analysis of Discrete Reforms
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ISBN: 1462312543 1452782490 1282110411 1451902557 9786613803306 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper suggests an econometric methodology for testing the effectiveness of reforms implemented in one major step, i.e., discrete reforms. The methodology is based on the exogeneity properties of variables in an econometric model. The paper specifies the preconditions for setting up an appropriate model; suggests an economic interpretation of the tests for weak, strong, and superexogeneity; and illustrates this methodology by applying it to two cases of instantaneous reforms. The exogeneity properties of variables in a correctly specified econometric model may help uncover information on the preparation, implementation, and the outcome of such reforms, which could be useful for future policy advice.


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Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Analytical Approach)
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ISBN: 1462352928 1452744165 1282107607 9786613800954 1451901135 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper seeks to establish a link between the liberalization of trade in financial services undertaken by countries under the WTO and the stability of their financial systems. The paper concludes that liberalization has generally been conducive to stability because of the mutually reinforcing nature of existing international rules and practices. Financial stability and efficiency, which should be ultimate goals of further liberalization, can be ensured by taking advantage of coherent policy advice and the application of existing multilateral mechanisms-in particular, the WTO negotiations and the IMF/World Bank financial sector assessment program.


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Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Empirical Approach)
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ISBN: 146238823X 1452781494 1282109650 9786613802545 1451901216 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper explores empirically the links between the WTO-driven liberalization of trade in financial services and the stability of national financial systems. Econometric testing of indicators intended to proxy financial sector stability-subdivided into exchange rate and banking sector stability-suggests that opening of the financial sector is an efficient policy instrument at the disposal of the authorities for achieving a variety of macroeconomic goals. While liberalization is found to be broadly conducive to stability, the outcome of liberalization on exchange rate stability is less predictable than on banking sector stability.


Book
Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World : A Panel Var Approach
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ISBN: 1462336906 1452785597 1281599956 1451894376 9786613780645 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.


Book
Financial Reforms in Sudan : Streamlining Bank Intermediation
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ISBN: 1462377262 1451992513 1281600822 1451894295 9786613781512 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper reviews the experience of financial reforms in Sudan with a view to assessing their macroeconomic impact and to shedding light on the question why such reforms have not yet brought about visible improvements in financial intermediation. The paper concludes that regardless of the progress achieved in recent years, deficiencies in the reform design, institutional weaknesses, shallow financial markets, shortcomings of the Islamic mode of finance, and strong seasonality remain key factors that constrain financial intermediation. Additional efforts, in particular in bank restructuring, credit instrument design, monetary policy management, and prudential regulation are needed to address the systemic problems of the financial sector and to make it capable of supporting private sector growth.


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Export Tax and Pricing Power : Two Hypotheses on the Cocoa Market in Côte d’Ivoire
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ISBN: 1462354718 1455264962 1283556995 1455211524 9786613869449 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper models export taxation of a primary commodity in a large country under two hypotheses about the structure of its export market. The first is perfect competition among exporters, where there is an indefinite number of buyers of the local product and at least a partial pass-through of international prices to local producers. The second is an oligopsony, a market structure in some low-income countries where numerous scattered local producers face a few powerful exporters that can influence domestic prices. For both hypotheses, export taxation can be justified on efficiency grounds only for the country that adopts the tax. Designed correctly, a low export tax may be welfare-enhancing for that country but will always be welfare-reducing for its trading partners. The models of export taxation for both hypotheses are calibrated for the illustrative case of cocoa exports from Côte d’Ivoire.


Book
Inclusive Growth and Inequality in Senegal
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ISBN: 1484322053 1484366727 1475556594 Year: 2013 Volume: WP/13/215 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper examines Senegal’s growth performance from the perspective of its povertyreducing and distributional characteristics, and discusses policies that might help make growth more inclusive. The main findings are that poverty has fallen in the last two decades, but poverty reduction has slowed in recent years. Although available indicators sometimes give conflicting signals on distributional shifts, people in the middle of the income distribution have received the most benefit, mainly in urban areas. Further progress in poverty reduction and inclusiveness would require sustained high growth and exploration of growth opportunities in the sectors with high earning potential for the poor. Better-targeted social policies and more attention to the regional distribution of spending would also help reduce poverty and improve inclusiveness.


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How to Improve the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
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ISBN: 1484367057 1484366956 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) is a currency union with a fixed exchange rate and limited capital mobility and, therefore, an independent monetary policy in the short run. The Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) is conducting the single monetary policy with the main goal of preserving price stability and supporting economic growth. However, the effectiveness of its monetary policy remains low, with a weak reaction of market interest rates and inflation to BCEAO’s policy actions. The paper concludes that, while the institutional setup and the instruments of monetary policy are adequate, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy remains constrained by liquidity management practices, shallow and segmented financial markets, and interest rate rigidities. To improve the effectiveness of monetary policy the BCEAO should be more proactive in determining the stance of fiscal policies, develop financial markets, and liberalize controlled interest rates. The BCEAO is undertaking important reforms in these directions.

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