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Using the between-sector variation in income as a new measure of economic uncertainty, this paper proposes simple models and supportive empirical evidence for the causal relations between economic uncertainty and government size in the open economy setting. Key empirical findings include: (1) a larger government reduces economic uncertainty, and, at the same time, (2) an economy facing higher uncertainty has a larger government. However, (3) the government tends to resort to redistributive policies to reduce the uncertainty, while (4) government direct spending is also an effective option for the purpose. The study also finds that (5) cross-sectional measure of economic uncertainty tends to rise when a country becomes more open to international trade.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Personal income --- Expenditure --- Labor --- Terms of trade --- Income shocks --- Income --- Expenditures, Public --- Labor economics --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Korea, Republic of --- Income distribution. --- Uncertainty. --- Income economics --- Nternational cooperation
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A zero net domestic financing (NDF) target has served Tanzania well in recent years, contributing to prudent expenditure policy, improved fiscal sustainability, and macroeconomic stability. Moving to a more flexible fiscal policy, however, may serve Tanzania better. The "diamond rule" proposed in this paper incorporates a permanent hard ceiling on debt and annual benchmark limits on NDF, expenditure growth, and nonconcessional external financing. This rule would provide flexibility for countercyclical policy and help define the fiscal space for infrastructure spending that is consistent with longrun fiscal sustainability. An illustrative simulation shows that Tanzania has considerable fiscal space for development spending.
Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Economic development --- Economics --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- Economic policy --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public debt --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal rules --- Expenditure --- Budget planning and preparation --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Budget --- Tanzania, United Republic of
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The Greek pension system has been costly, complex, and distortive, which has contributed to Greece’s fiscal problems and discouraged labor force participation. Several attempts to reform the system faltered due to lack of implementation, pushback by vested interests, and court rulings leading to reversals. A series of reforms introduced throughout 2015–17 unified benefit and contribution rules, removed several distortions and reduced fragmentation and costs. If fully implemented throughout the long-term, these reforms can go a long way towards enhancing the pension system affordability. However, reforms faced setbacks and fell short of creating stronger incentives to build long contribution histories, to deliver sustainable growth by improving the fiscal policy mix, and to ensure fairness and equitable burden sharing across generations and interest groups. Policy priorities should aim towards fully implementing the 2015–17 reforms and complementing them with additional reforms to address these remaining objectives.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Labor --- Demography --- Fiscal Policy --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Pensions --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Pension spending --- Expenditure --- Aging --- Population and demographics --- Wages --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Population aging --- Greece
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The Greek pension system has been costly, complex, and distortive, which has contributed to Greece’s fiscal problems and discouraged labor force participation. Several attempts to reform the system faltered due to lack of implementation, pushback by vested interests, and court rulings leading to reversals. A series of reforms introduced throughout 2015–17 unified benefit and contribution rules, removed several distortions and reduced fragmentation and costs. If fully implemented throughout the long-term, these reforms can go a long way towards enhancing the pension system affordability. However, reforms faced setbacks and fell short of creating stronger incentives to build long contribution histories, to deliver sustainable growth by improving the fiscal policy mix, and to ensure fairness and equitable burden sharing across generations and interest groups. Policy priorities should aim towards fully implementing the 2015–17 reforms and complementing them with additional reforms to address these remaining objectives.
Greece --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Public Finance --- Labor --- Demography --- Fiscal Policy --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Pensions --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Pension spending --- Expenditure --- Aging --- Population and demographics --- Wages --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Population aging --- Income economics
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Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated food insecurity that had already been on the rise for half a decade. Low-income countries are affected the most. This note suggests that the food and fertilizer price shock would add $9 billion in 2022 and 2023 to the import bills of the 48 most affected countries. The budgetary cost of protecting vulnerable households in these countries amounts to $5–7 billion. Strong and timely action on a global scale is needed to support vulnerable households through international humanitarian assistance and domestic fiscal measures; to maintain open trade; to enhance food production and distribution; and to invest in climate-resilient agriculture. The IMF has been stepping up its engagement to help tackle the global food crisis, working closely with partners, by providing policy advice, capacity building and financing. IMF financing is a third line of defense in meeting external financing needs associated with the global food shock, which should ideally be covered by donor grants and concessional borrowing from MDBs. A new food shock window under the emergency financing instruments is expected to be approved soon to further strengthen its lending response to the food crisis.
Food supply. --- Currency crises --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economic sectors --- Economics of specific sectors --- Economics --- Economics: General --- Energy: Government Policy --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Financial crises --- General Economics: General --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Informal sector --- Macroeconomics --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy --- Redistributive Effects --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities
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