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Depuis le début des années 2000, la France a connu une détérioration marquée de sa performance à l’exportation, conduisant à des préoccupations accrues de la part des autorités et de la société civile sur la capacité d’adaptation de l’économie à une mondialisation croissante des échanges et de l’investissement en biens et services. Les mauvaises performances enregistrées du commerce extérieur sont liées à une série de facteurs plutôt qu’à une seule cause unique. Elles ne peuvent être expliquées par les seuls déterminants externes tels que le taux de change, l’avènement dans le commerce mondial de pays émergents à fort potentiel d’exportation ou la forte hausse des prix du pétrole en 2007-08. En effet, ce n’est pas tant la perte de parts de marchés en soi qui est inquiétante – elle s’est produite dans de nombreux pays – mais plutôt son ampleur dû à la difficulté à répondre à l’accélération de la demande mondiale dans les années 2000, datant d’avant l’apparition de la crise économique actuelle. En effet, l’analyse de la dégradation de la compétitivité renvoie davantage à des facteurs d’offre liés à la moindre aptitude des entreprises françaises à servir les marchés étrangers, mais aussi au développement de stratégies industrielles d’établissement à l’étranger de la totalité du processus de production. Le redressement de la compétitivité passera par un renforcement de la croissance potentielle et une action sur ses principaux déterminants à long terme, tels que l’accroissement de la recherche et développement, la promotion de l’innovation, la baisse du poids de la fiscalité, une amélioration de la concurrence et la création de conditions propices à une croissance rapide des entreprises. Le manque de compétitivité est le plus souvent un symptôme, et non la cause d’une ou plusieurs faiblesses économiques sous-jacentes. C’est pourquoi, il est préférable que l’intervention publique soit globale et porte sur les sources du problème de compétitivité et non qu’elle prenne la forme d’aides ciblées visant à remédier directement au déficit croissant de la balance commerciale. Ce document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la France, 2009 (www.oecd.org/eco/études/France).

Economics --- France

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Following many years of underinvestment, renovating and building new transport infrastructure is an important policy priority that would increase labour mobility and improve Poland’s competitiveness. This goal is all the more feasible given that the country is going to benefit from substantial EU structural and cohesion funds over the programming period 2007-13. On top of the limited timeframe for the absorption of EU funds, the European soccer championship that Poland is going to co-host with Ukraine in 2012 imposes an additional time constraint on many investment projects. The country is heavily reliant on road transport but is lacking an efficient high-speed road network. It needs important renovation investments both in the rolling stock and infrastructure network of the railway sector. It also faces the challenges of revitalising maritime transport as well as extending and upgrading airport facilities to cope with the fastest growing air market in Europe. However, many obstacles remain and hinder the implementation of investment plans and thus need to be resolved rapidly. From the macroeconomic perspective, these are related to rising prices of scarce labour and intermediate inputs, while from the microeconomic standpoint the main difficulties lie in the area of the regulatory framework underlying the provision of physical infrastructure.

Economics --- Poland

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The objective of joining the euro area has become an important priority in the policy agenda of the current government. The paper focuses on the major structural reforms necessary to prepare for euro adoption that should allow a sustainable fulfilment of the Maastricht criteria and maximisation of the ensuing various benefits. These reforms are desirable independent of the effective date of adoption, given the necessity to restore fiscal discipline, maintain price stability and ensure a balanced growth going forward. However, they are even more essential in the run up to euro adoption as the process of real and nominal convergence remains largely incomplete, which requires a substantial strengthening of alternative adjustment mechanisms to domestic interest- and exchange-rate changes. The reforms should aim to create strong institutions to ensure fiscal sustainability and an efficient counter-cyclical rules-based fiscal policy supported by an independent fiscal council; promote flexibility in labour and product markets; and head off the risk of a boom-bust cycle triggered by much lower real interest rates, too rapid credit expansion and overblown perceived permanent income gains. The timing of euro adoption should therefore be determined by the speed of the implementation of reforms; otherwise the outcome of early membership without appropriate preparation may turn out to be difficult and risky. Yet, provided that adequate reforms are implemented, euro adoption should speed up the convergence process. This Working Paper relates to the 2010 OECD Economic Survey of Poland (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/poland).

Economics --- Poland

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Restoring fiscal sustainability is a major challenge in Slovenia. Yet, the performance in terms of expenditure control is poor and public expenditure on social spending increased briskly during the crisis, significantly more than on average across the OECD. Despite recent progress in reforming the pension system, Slovenia continues to face major age-related spending pressures. Reforming the welfare state would help achieve fiscal consolidation, increase the quality of fiscal adjustment and address long-term fiscal sustainability challenges. This could be done without significantly worsening income inequality, which is low in Slovenia. Despite recent progress, cash transfers do not seem to be sufficiently means tested. Partly driven by generous social transfers, average effective tax rates on returning to work from inactivity and unemployment are high and could be further cut gradually. Efficiency frontier analysis suggests there is scope to improve spending efficiency without undermining the quality of in kind services on secondary education, health care and public administration. There is excess capacity in pre-school and compulsory education and the allocation of tertiary education services is regressive. The delivery of health care could be improved by rationalising inpatient care and enhancing costeffective primary care, which would generate savings in the medium term. Further increasing the effective retirement age and reforming the financing of health and long-term care are the main policy priorities to contain the pressure of population ageing on expenditure. This Working Paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Review of Slovenia (http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/slovenia-2013.htm).

Social Issues/Migration/Health --- Economics --- Slovenia

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Despite a high level of homeownership, the housing market in Poland is suffering from an important shortage. The difference between the number households and available dwellings, the number of dwellings per thousand inhabitants, and the availability of basic amenities (especially in rural areas) all indicate that significant improvements are needed to catch up to the most affluent OECD and EU countries. The formal rental segment of the market is also underdeveloped, contributing to low labour mobility and persistent disparities in regional unemployment. Given the social, economic and political dimensions of the problem, various housing policies implemented since the beginning of the transition process have aimed to fill the housing gap, though they have been either narrow in scope or have led to unclear results. However, the housing market has been buoyant in recent years, spurred by rising levels of GDP per capita, lower interest rates and the emergence of a competitive mortgage market. Yet a brisk price appreciation has also occurred at the same time, while households’ exposure to interest- and exchange-rate risks has significantly increased and banks’ funding capabilities have shrunk. Although the market has not been directly affected by the recent global financial turmoil, recent information shows that a turn-around is underway, with prices declining in several major cities as sentiment has plunged. This raises concerns about the capacity of the market to achieve a smooth adjustment in the face of a possible downturn.

Economics --- Poland