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"The process of globalisation has been ongoing for centuries, but few would doubt that it has accelerated and intensified in recent decades. This acceleration is evidenced as much by the strong synchronicity in the rapid transmission of financial crises starting in late 2007 as it is by the decade of almost unprecedented growth in international trade and financial market liberalisation that preceded it. This book shows how the international economy has become more connected via increased production, trade, capital flows and financial linkages. Using a variety of methodologies, including both panel econometrics and DSGE modelling, a team of experts from academia, central banks and the IMF examine how this increased globalisation has affected competitiveness, productivity, inflation and the labour market. This timely contribution to the globalisation literature provides a longer-term perspective while also evaluating some of the potential implications for policy makers, particularly from a European perspective"--

Globalization --- International economic relations --- International finance --- International trade --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary policy --- 382 --- 332.691 --- 333.841 --- 333.846.0 --- 338.023 --- 380.23 --- 382.11 --- AA / International- internationaal --- EUR / Europe - Europa --- Economics --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- International monetary system --- International money --- Finance --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- External trade --- Foreign commerce --- Foreign trade --- Global commerce --- Global trade --- Trade, International --- World trade --- Commerce --- Non-traded goods --- Economic aspects --- Evolutie van de arbeidsmarkt --- Inflatie --- Verband tussen het monetair, bank- en kredietbeleid en de economische ontwikkeling: algemeenheden --- Arbeidsproductiviteit --- Vorming van internationale prijzen. Internationale gelijkheden en verschillen. Concurrentievermogen --- Theorie van het internationale evenwicht. Economische onafhankelijkheid van een natie. Globalisering. Mondialisering --- International trade. --- International economic relations. --- International finance. --- Monetary policy. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economic aspects. --- Business, Economy and Management

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Zonder onderwerpscode: financiewezen

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Macroeconomics --- International finance --- International economic relations

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Using new panel data from a representative survey of households in the six largest euro area economies, the paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on consumption. The panel provides, each month, household-specific indicators of the concern about finances due to Covid-19 from the first peak of the pandemic until October 2020. The results show that this concern causes a significant reduction in non-durable consumption. The paper also explores the potential impact on consumption of government interventions and of another wave of Covid-19, using household-level consumption adjustments to scenarios that involve positive and negative income shocks. Fears of the financial consequences of the pandemic induce a significant reduction in the marginal propensity to consume, an effect consistent with models of precautionary saving and liquidity constraints. The results are robust to endogeneity concerns through use of panel fixed effects and partial identification methods, which account also for time-varying unobservable variables, and provide informative identification regions of the average treatment effect of the concern for Covid-19 under weak assumptions.

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This paper discusses the recent wave of research that has emphasized the importance of measures of consumers' inflation expectations. In contrast to other measures of expected inflation, such as for experts or financial market participants, consumers' inflation expectations capture the broader distribution of societal beliefs about inflation. This research has revealed very significant deviations from traditional assumptions about rationality in consumers' expectations formation. However, households do act on their beliefs about inflation, though in heterogeneous ways that can depart from the predictions of conventional economic models. Recent euro area experiences highlight the importance of tracking the degree of anchoring in consumers' inflation expectations in a way that considers their inherent complexity, heterogeneity, and subjectivity. On average, consumers' medium and longer-term expectations deviate noticeably in levels from central bank targets and, in contrast with expert expectations, often co-move more closely with shorter-term inflation news. By stepping up their engagement with the wider public, central banks may be able to influence expectations by building up greater knowledge and trust and thereby support more effective monetary transmission. Communication efforts need to be persistent because central banks must compete with many other demands on consumers' attention.