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The paper characterizes trade exposure and regional integration in six ASEAN economies during 1997-2008. For this, the paper uses the 2000 Asian Input Output Tables which are extrapolated using National Income Accounts and COMTRADE data. On the demand side, the paper shows that the level and geographical nature of external exposure varies across the ASEANs, and has changed over time. In particular, there was a shift in the external demand exposure of ASEANs from mature markets, including the United States, to China and ROW. In addition, the share of China in East Asia’s final demand, especially investment, rose sharply while that of Japan fell. On the supply side, the paper documents the rise of China into a “global factory” and the steady shift in regional production and integration from Japan and the United States to China.

Southeast Asia--Economic integration--Econometric models. --- Southeast Asia--Commerce--Econometric models. --- Commerce--Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Agribusiness --- Industries: Hospital,Travel and Tourism --- Production and Operations Management --- Input-Output Models --- Economic Integration --- Sports --- Gambling --- Restaurants --- Recreation --- Tourism --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Agriculture: General --- Hospitality, leisure & tourism industries --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Agricultural economics --- Vector autoregression --- Exports --- Output gap --- Agricultural sector --- Economic sectors --- Econometric analysis --- International trade --- Production --- Economic theory --- Agricultural industries --- Tunisia

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Global merchandise trade expanded rapidly over the last 6½ decades and its relationship with global income has seen ebbs and flows. This paper examines the shifts in this relationship using time series data over 1950-2014 and situates it in the current and longer term context. The conjunctural context comes from, among other things, the “great trade collapse” (GTC) and the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009, and developments since then. The longer term context comes from the relative role of “globalization” and “technology” shocks in accounting for the short and long run variance of global exports and income. The paper estimates trade and income elasticities using ADL models taking account of structural breaks, and impulse response functions from structural VARs. The estimated SVAR model provides a lens to ask whether global trade and income are in a “new normal’ or only “back to (an old) normal” after the GTC and GFC.

International trade. --- Exports. --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Diffusion Processes --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Econometric analysis --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Econometrics --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Export performance --- Exports and Imports --- Exports --- Income --- International economics --- International trade --- Macroeconomics --- National accounts --- Personal income --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- State Space Models --- Structural vector autoregression --- Time-Series Models --- Trade: General --- Vector autoregression --- Russian Federation

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The paper develops robust measures of core inflation for Vietnam that can be used in policy making. These core inflation measures (CIMs) are based on an analytical evaluation of the inflation process in Vietnam, and use a filtering approach to narrow down potential measures that satisfy certain empirically desirable criteria. The paper finds that commonly used exclusion-based measures (EBMs) do not perform well against these empirical criteria; trimmed mean measures (TMMs) do better. Among TMMs, “one trim does not fit all periods”; periods of high and variable inflation require larger trims, and conversely. EVIEWS and MATLAB programs which accompany the paper allow quick, timely replication of CIMs as new data become available, making them valuable tools for the State Bank of Vietnam on an ongoing basis.

Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Estimation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banking --- Consumer price indexes --- Price controls --- Central bank policy rate --- Prices --- Financial services --- Price indexes --- Government policy --- Interest rates --- Vietnam