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In recent years, the Arctic and wider High North have re-emerged as an area of concern for policymakers, reflecting changes in climate and geopolitics. Rapid ice-melting and associated changes — such as rising sea levels resulting from higher temperatures — are opening new maritime routes and access to natural resources. Ongoing climate and environmental changes are rightly provoking global concern, but also bring renewed political, security, military and economic interest in the Arctic. Though the UK is not an Arctic state, its strategic position neighbouring the region, its reliance on sea lines of communication, its role in NATO and its leadership on climate-change issues all entail a need for close engagement with developments in the High North. The Integrated Review released in March 2021 emphasised the UK's strategic interests in the Arctic and broader High North region. The Defence Command Paper that accompanied the Integrated Review similarly emphasised the importance of the High North in maintaining security in defence of the North Atlantic and called for enhanced capabilities and use of multilateral partnerships to better secure the region. To be successful, the UK's approach must be underpinned by a clear understanding of the different diplomatic, information, military and economic levers through which the government can exert influence, either unilaterally or through cooperation with others. This project identified areas for further action or investigation, including a need to better understand how different parts of government could work together on High North issues and how the UK could maximise its influence over developments in the High North through international fora.

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The Antarctic is becoming a zone of contested governance. Leveraging open-source literature and a tabletop exercise (TTX), the authors examine the possible implications that geostrategic manoeuvring and competition in the Antarctic in the coming decades might have on the longevity and resilience of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), a governance regime that seems increasingly ill-fitted to modern strategic dynamics. The authors develop a portrait of the Antarctic as a potential point of geostrategic tension by conducting a review of the history of the ATS, highlighting existing challenges with governance, and setting the stage for possible friction points between nations. The authors explore the interested parties, the nature of their interests and their existing positions as reflected in their policies and activities. This analysis was used to design and develop a TTX that challenged, tested and stretched thinking and identified potential geostrategic friction points for the Antarctic. The authors provide empirically driven projections of future dynamics to expose uncertainty, expand understanding and provide a stronger basis for policy and decisionmaking for the region.