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This empirical study for South Africa indicates that there exists a stable money demand type of relationship among domestic prices, broad money, real income, and interest rates, as well as a long-run relationship among domestic prices, foreign prices, and the nominal exchange rate. In the short run, shocks to the nominal exchange rate affect domestic prices but have virtually no impact on real output, while shocks to broad money have a temporary impact on real output before becoming inflationary. Both types of shocks seem to trigger a monetary policy response, since the short-term interest rate adjusts quickly.
Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Demand for Money --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Demand for money --- Exchange rates --- Purchasing power parity --- Monetary base --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Money --- Money supply --- South Africa
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This paper describes the main elements of inflation targeting, reviews its pros and cons, and examines the experiences thus far in countries using this framework. It discusses the implications and relative merits of such a framework for South Africa, and concludes that it would be feasible and desirable for South Africa to adopt explicit inflation targeting. Doing so could reduce uncertainties about the Reserve Bank’s objectives and enhance the transparency of monetary policy. However, further experience with the operational aspects of the repurchase system and a refinement of the inflation forecasting framework may be needed before inflation targeting is implemented.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary policy frameworks --- Exchange rates --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Monetary policy instruments --- Banks and banking --- South Africa
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This paper examines the empirical relationship between trade and total factor productivity (TFP) in South Africa. It uses (i) a time series approach where trade is defined in terms of aggregate outcomes, i.e., as the share of imports plus exports in GDP, and (ii) a cross sectional approach, where trade is defined in terms of trade policy, i.e., as actual trade protection across different manufacturing sectors. The results indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between trade and TFP growth both over time and across sectors.
Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Production and Operations Management --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Total factor productivity --- Tariffs --- Trade policy --- Imports --- Trade liberalization --- Taxes --- International trade --- Industrial productivity --- Commercial policy --- Tariff --- South Africa
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