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Book
World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, October 2019 : Weathering Growing Risks.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1464815089 Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

Growth in the developing East Asia and Pacific region slowed in the first half of 2019 given weakening global demand and heightened policy uncertainty amid ongoing trade tensions. Steady consumption growth helped to partly offset the effects of weakening exports and investment on growth. The region's growth prospects face intensified downside risks, including further escalation of trade disputes, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, the United States and the Euro Area, along with a disorderly Brexit, and an abrupt change in global financing conditions. In some countries, rising indebtedness and other vulnerabilities, such as the constrained capacity for foreign debt rollover, could amplify the negative effects of external shocks. The regional growth moderation underscores the need to address key vulnerabilities and preserve economic dynamism among developing East Asia and Pacific economies. In the short run, countries with sufficient policy space should use available policy tools to stimulate domestic activities. Better quality spending, together with prudent debt management, is needed to safeguard fiscal sustainability. Deepening regional integration would help offset the negative impact of global protectionism. In the medium to long term, pursuing structural reforms that raise competitiveness, support trade and investment, and encourage innovation is critical to boosting productivity and growth.


Book
What Types of Capital Flows Help Improve International Risk Sharing?
Authors: ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

Cross-border capital flows are expected to lead to increased international risk sharing by facilitating borrowing and lending in global financial markets. This paper examines risk-sharing outcomes of various types of capital flows (foreign direct investment, portfolio equity, debt, remittance, and aid flows) in a large sample of emerging market and developing economies. The results suggest that remittances and aid flows are associated with increased international risk sharing. Other types of capital flows are not consistently correlated with better risk-sharing outcomes. These findings are robust to the use of different econometric specifications, country-specific characteristics, and other controls.


Book
How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time? : International Evidence
Authors: ---
Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper studies how the sensitivity of consumption to income has changed over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. In standard theory, greater financial integration facilitates international borrowing and lending, helping to reduce the sensitivity of consumption growth to fluctuations in income. The paper examines the empirical validity of this prediction using an array of indicators of financial integration for a large sample of advanced and developing countries over the period 1960-2011. Two main results are reported. First, the sensitivity of consumption to income has declined over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. The decline has been more pronounced in advanced economies than in developing ones. Second, the regression analysis indicates that a higher degree of financial integration is associated with a lower sensitivity of consumption to income. This finding is robust to the use of a wide range of empirical specifications, country-specific characteristics, and other controls, such as interest rates and outcome-based measures of financial integration. The paper also discusses other potential sources of the temporal changes in the sensitivity of consumption to income.


Book
Lives versus Livelihoods during the COVID-19 Pandemic : How Testing Softens the Trade-Off
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Abstract

The early COVID-19 pandemic literature focused on the conflict between lives and livelihoods. But cross-country evidence reveals that across countries high mortality rates were often associated with large gross domestic product contractions. This paper shows that the presumed trade-off was associated with lockdowns as the primary instrument of containment. Early transition from lockdowns to testing-tracing-isolation-based containment softened the trade-off within countries and explains the absence of a trade-off across countries. The analysis finds that testing had positive indirect effects on growth and perhaps even positive direct effects. By allowing countries to relax shutdowns without compromising on containment, testing could have indirectly contributed to about a 0.6 percentage point boost in growth. By infusing greater confidence in people to step out and engage in economic activity, testing could have added another 0.6 percentage point to growth. As the world struggles to scale up vaccination in the face of new waves and variants, continued emphasis on testing could help limit infection without recourse to costly lockdowns.


Book
Firm Entry, Exit and Suspension : Evidence from Household Businesses in Vietnam
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2022 Publisher: Washington D.C. : World Bank,

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Household businesses make up the majority of firms in developing economies. This paper uses a novel tax census database that covers the universe of tax-registered household businesses to analyze the entry and exit of owner-operated firms in Vietnam during January 2018 to August 2020. It documents new stylized facts about the survival dynamics of informal businesses. First, the entry and exit rates were about 5-6 percent a year for tax-registered household businesses during the pre-pandemic period. Second, an additional 25 percent of household businesses suspended their activity in a year on average, with the annual suspension duration exceeding 2.5 months. The suspension rate spiked to 40 percent during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Third, the findings show that the pandemic-related effects were more pronounced for businesses dependent on face-to-face interactions with customers and suppliers. However, these effects were short lived, and activity and earnings rebounded by August 2020. The findings may reflect the relatively short COVID-19 distress in Vietnam during the first phase of the pandemic, but they illuminate both the vulnerabilities and resilience of the household business sector.


Book
Weakness in Investment Growth : Causes, Implications and Policy Responses
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the causes and implications of this slowdown and presents a menu of policy responses to improve investment growth. It reports four main results. First, the slowdown has been broad-based and most pronounced in the largest emerging markets and in commodity exporters. Second, it reflects a range of obstacles: weak activity, negative terms-of-trade shocks, declining foreign direct investment inflows, elevated private debt burdens, heightened political risk, and adverse spillovers from major economies. Third, by slowing capital accumulation and technological progress embedded in investment, weak post-crisis investment growth has contributed to sluggish growth of potential output in recent years. Finally, although specific policy priorities depend on country circumstances, policymakers can boost investment both directly, through public investment, and indirectly, by encouraging private investment, including foreign direct investment, and by undertaking measures to improve overall growth prospects and the business climate.

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