Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The synchronized disinflation across Europe since end-2011 raises the question of whether non-euro area EU countries are affected by the undershooting of the euro area inflation target. To shed light on this issue, we estimate an open-economy, New Keynsian Phillips curve, in which we control for imported inflation. Regression results suggest that falling food and energy prices have been the main disinflationary driver. But low core inflation in the euro area has also had a clear and significant impact. Countries with more rigid exchange-rate regimes and higher share of foreign value added in domestic demand have been more affected. The scope for monetary response to low inflation in non-euro area EU countries depends on concerns about financial stability and unanchoring of inflationary expectations, as well as on exchange rate regime and capital flows dynamics.

Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- General Aggregative Models: Keynes --- Keynesian --- Post-Keynesian --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Monetary Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Price controls --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Inflation targeting --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Government policy --- Czech Republic

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995–2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity and solvency risk indicators tend to be counter-cyclical, whereas mispricing risk ones are procyclical, and they all lead the credit cycle. Our results lend support to high-level accounts that risks were underestimated by stress indicators in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications of conflicting risk signals would depend on the phase of the credit cycle.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Bankruptcy --- Liquidation --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Finance --- Financial services law & regulation --- Credit cycles --- Liquidity risk --- Solvency --- Systemic risk --- Private debt --- Financial risk management --- Debt --- Business cycles --- Denmark --- Monetary policy. --- Fiscal policy. --- Risk management.

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995–2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity and solvency risk indicators tend to be counter-cyclical, whereas mispricing risk ones are procyclical, and they all lead the credit cycle. Our results lend support to high-level accounts that risks were underestimated by stress indicators in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications of conflicting risk signals would depend on the phase of the credit cycle.

Denmark --- Monetary policy. --- Fiscal policy. --- Risk management. --- Bankruptcy --- Banks and Banking --- Business cycles --- Business Fluctuations --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Credit cycles --- Credit --- Cycles --- Debt --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Financial risk management --- Financial services law & regulation --- Financing Policy --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Goodwill --- Liquidation --- Liquidity risk --- Macroeconomics --- Money Multipliers --- Money Supply --- Private debt --- Solvency --- Systemic risk --- Value of Firms

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The paper estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Ghana. Regression results show that most of the REER's long-run behavior can be explained by real GDP growth, real interest rate differentials (both relative to trading-partner countries), and the real world prices of Ghana's main export commodities. On the basis of these fundamentals, the REER in late 2006 was found to be very close to its estimated equilibrium level. The results also suggest, that deviations from the equilibrium path are eliminated within two to three years.

Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models --- Multiple Variables: General --- Trade: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- International economics --- Real effective exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Real interest rates --- Vector error correction models --- Exports --- Interest rates --- Econometric models --- Ghana --- Competition --- Foreign exchange rates --- Economic policy.

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Le secteur financier de la Communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC) a été durement touché par la crise financière mondiale et par la récession mondiale qui s'en est suivie. Cette note examine la réaction des autorités des pays de la CEMAC à la crise et à la récession, et s'intéresse particulièrement aux incidences des politiques actuelles sur la viabilité des finances publiques de chaque pays, ainsi qu'à la viabilité de la position extérieure de la région et de son taux de couverture des réserves. Elle présente ensuite des recommandations de politique générale aux autorités des pays de la CEMAC, alors où celles-ci ajustent leur réaction à la crise mondiale.

Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Fiscal Policy --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Foreign Exchange --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Public finance & taxation --- Oil prices --- Fiscal sustainability --- Fiscal stance --- Fiscal policy --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Equatorial Guinea, Republic of