Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper provides a description of the macroeconomic aftermath of natural disasters. It traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth - both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non-agricultural components - to four types of natural disasters - droughts, floods, earthquakes, and storms. The paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the experiences of various countries over time. It consists of vector auto-regressions in the presence of endogenous variables and exogenous shocks (VARX), applied to a panel of cross-country and time-series data. The analysis finds heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions. First, the effects of natural disasters are stronger, for better or worse, on developing than on rich countries. Second, while the impact of some natural disasters can be beneficial when they are of moderate intensity, severe disasters never have positive effects. Third, not all natural disasters are alike in terms of the growth response they induce, and, perhaps surprisingly, some can entail benefits regarding economic growth. Thus, droughts have a negative effect on both agricultural and non-agricultural growth. In contrast, floods tend to have a positive effect on economic growth in both major sectors. Earthquakes have a negative effect on agricultural growth but a positive one on non-agricultural growth. Storms tend to have a negative effect on gross domestic product growth but the effect is short-lived and small. Future research should concentrate on exploring the mechanisms behind these heterogeneous impacts.

Avalanches --- Catastrophic events --- Conflict and Development --- Disaster --- Disaster events --- Disaster Management --- Disaster reduction --- Disaster risk --- Disaster risk reduction --- Droughts --- Earthquake --- Earthquakes --- Environment --- Famines --- Floods --- Hazard Risk Management --- Natural Disaster --- Natural Disasters --- Natural hazards --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Reconstruction --- Storms --- Tsunamis --- Urban Development --- Volcano --- Wind storms

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

The global financial crisis and its aftermath have triggered extraordinary policy responses in advanced countries. The impacts of these policy responses-from asset price bubbles to currency depreciations-have often been felt in the developing world. As tapering talk evolves into actual withdrawal of quantitative easing in the United States, and as the Euro Zone launches its own quantitative easing program, there are good reasons to be concerned about the financial stability of emerging economies. India's experience with U.S. tapering offers insights into what to expect. This paper estimates the contribution of external and domestic factors to short-term fluctuations in the value of the Indian rupee between 2004 and 2014, using a rich dynamic model that controls for a large number of exchange rate determinants. The paper finds that a global surprise factor, more than domestic vulnerabilities, was the main driver of the large rupee depreciation in summer 2013. With the surprise factor gone, further normalization of U.S. monetary policy is unlikely to have significant effects on the rupee exchange rate.

Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt Markets --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange Rate --- Indian Rupee --- Tapering